That's quite a powerful blast in late november, I would rather like something along those lines. I still have horrible memories of the winter of 2011/12 and to some extent last winter when several models had shown proper 'beasts from the east' from about the same time, but later these backed off very disappointingly. 

By the way, whatever happened to a certain Mr. Madden? After his complete and utter flops (particularly last autumn) he seems to have vanished off the scene apart from a subsciption only site. Did he ever reveal his so called 'methods' with which he produced incredibly vague 'forecasts'?

I will point out that the CFS has been barking on about this sort of thing for the last 6 months. Patterns like this are not just turning up. If we look at the CFS over the last few months I think a prediction of a winter <1C below average is pretty safe. The CFS actually is suprisingly accurate, I remember how it got the dec2010 spot on - I personally used it to predict the cold weather in october.

Unsurpisngly todays CFS is showing northern blocking for November - January with Med lows in February.  

It's also eased off the idea recently, prolonged cold spells from CFS for the LR period have been hard to find

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1896.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1896.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF

Middle of December is a bit chilly

Any one know if this new snow cover in Siberia is significant for September? looks like a bit more cover than previous years http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

I know the total NH snow/ice extent is about 20% up on this day last year, and up on previous years too>

Correlation between late Sep snow cover and 2mT DJF anomolies for NW Europe? Finger in the air job IMO.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1896.png?06

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1896.png?06

 JFF JFF JFF JFF

Middle of December is a bit chilly

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

No  I have my works social that day and already I'm thinking I'll have to cancel. Can't risk the three people who have provisionally booked not turning up


(JFF )

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

LOL

Neil, at least you realise the JFF

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1896.png?06

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1896.png?06

 JFF JFF JFF JFF

Middle of December is a bit chilly

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

No  I have my works social that day and already I'm thinking I'll have to cancel. Can't risk the three people who have provisionally booked not turning up


(JFF )

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

LOL

Neil, at least you realise the JFF

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Exactly, and to update two of the three have just cried-off this afternoon. One is washing her hair and the other is expecting to be hospitalised from the 11th Dec.
Still, what are friends when you have the weather to keep you company?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2160.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-2-2160.png?18

J F F   J F F  J F F

Xmas day should feel rather seasonal

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-3072.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-2-3072.png?18

JFF  JFF JFF

After a mobile January , Feb starts in the freezer

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1602.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1602.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

December starts with an Easterly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1902.png?06

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A bitter Artic blast for the Middle of December

Although I a very happy to see some strong easterlies, are there any signs across the Atlantic that a strong weserly could develop which could cause problems for those of us who want to see blocking? Forecasts in the Autumn thread talking about a stormy few months ahead perhaps suggest that there are.

Meanwhile, the warm and sunny conditions currently around Manchester airport have made me think, how often does a southerly dominated winter occur in the UK?

its not even october. chill out you lot. you'll be exhausted by the time we get to winter. whats going on now is unlikely to have much effect on the upcoming winter. early siberian snows could easily melt in early ctober. i believe rapid snow accum over siberia second half october is more relevant to our prospects of a chilly winter.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-0-2094.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

A cold flow for Xmas Eve

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-0-3534.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

After several weeks of mobile weather we get an Easterly

Hi all,

Here's the second Winter 13/14 Round-Up video - Looking at solar activity, Siberian snow cover, SST's, etc...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Enjoy.

That Beijing climate model for winter is shocking!

Great video from Gavin yet again, what are the stats regarding the Beijing winter forecasts from this time of year proving correct? Seems a bit early to be calling a very mild one for our part of the world - if the Siberian snow cover persists and continues to grow, I wonder what effect that will have down the line?

Agree Duane........................woeful

Cheers Gav

It's one of the better models, but it's not always correct and last winter it's performance was patchy.

*IF* snow cover continues to pile up over Siberia during October I would rate that a very significant.

I kept an eye on it last summer, when it predicted a stunner, and last winter, when it seemed to predict blocked patterns at the wrong times, and then again for summer 2013, when it predicted +ve height anomalies to the NW of the UK, which turned out to be well wide of the mark.

That's all provided I'm recalling things correctly, of course. Gavin might have a more accurate record...?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-1542.png?18

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December starts of a chilly note

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-2-2106.png?18

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Xmas Day sees us in cold air

Yes, it's not has a particularly good run since summer 2012.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1980.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

A cold plunge in the run up to Xmas

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2106.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Followed by an Easterly