The Weather Outlook

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Chalkie
20 September 2013 11:21:46

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Joe

Gooner
20 September 2013 11:24:11

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Joe

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Link doesn't work

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nsrobins
20 September 2013 11:34:29

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything Wink

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Maybe, or maybe not. The Japanese and Chinese seasonal models that Simon K was referencing have been pretty decent these last few years it's true, but a bit less worthless than the worst isn't much of an accolade!

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Chalkie
20 September 2013 12:11:33

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Joe

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

Link doesn't work

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

 How about now?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Snow Hoper
20 September 2013 13:08:45

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

nsrobins
20 September 2013 15:08:59

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Winter is over?

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
20 September 2013 15:28:46

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Snow Hoper
20 September 2013 15:45:15

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Winter is over?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

It'll never begin

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Gooner
20 September 2013 21:18:27

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2478.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

Again 2014 starts on a Wintry note

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Stormchaser
20 September 2013 21:44:56

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Have you seen the September update from the BCC SC? I've been waiting for it, but from what I can see BCC haven't updated their charts from August yet? (seems to be a problem on the BCC website I think?)

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I thought the one in SK's vid was the September update, as I remember seeing very different charts not long ago. Whether it is or not, I've not been able to locate them on the official site yet

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

jondg14
20 September 2013 22:23:20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I've put it in the diary and booked the Thursday/Friday off work.

I do enjoy a good JFF 

Gooner
20 September 2013 23:17:18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

Originally Posted by: jondg14 

I've put it in the diary and booked the Thursday/Friday off work.

I do enjoy a good JFF 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

They should start to become a little more frequent

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
21 September 2013 09:29:10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1818.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Start of December looks particularly cold

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
21 September 2013 09:36:03

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Charmhills
21 September 2013 09:38:39

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Sir Michael's northerly!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Gooner
21 September 2013 09:43:49

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Sir Michael's northerly!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I think that might please him  lol

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin P
21 September 2013 09:51:54

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Have you seen the September update from the BCC SC? I've been waiting for it, but from what I can see BCC haven't updated their charts from August yet? (seems to be a problem on the BCC website I think?)

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I thought the one in SK's vid was the September update, as I remember seeing very different charts not long ago. Whether it is or not, I've not been able to locate them on the official site yet

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The BCC charts in SK's video were from August. Still waiting for September update.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gandalf The White
21 September 2013 10:16:41

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Matty H
21 September 2013 10:22:33

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

😂 Spin reaches forecast modelling 😝 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Solar Cycles
21 September 2013 14:09:08

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 



 Spin reaches forecast modelling Flapper 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

Gandalf The White
21 September 2013 15:56:38

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

😂 Spin reaches forecast modelling 😝 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Possibly Matty, but it wasn't supposed to be a googly....

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



blizzard of 78
21 September 2013 16:16:05

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



 Spin reaches forecast modelling Flapper 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

 

Its a bit like Matty then

Matty H
21 September 2013 16:37:54
😂
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 September 2013 16:45:46

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



 Spin reaches forecast modelling Flapper 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

 

Its a bit like Matty then

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

The problem seems to be that Glosea 4 pressure anomalies show for DJF HP anomlay to the north.This would be expected to deliver below avearge temerature anomalies across NW Europe.However the September 2m temperature anomalies from mETO contradict this with above average temeratures favoured (see the above average /below average plot rather than the terciles)

Gandalf The White
21 September 2013 18:47:47

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



 Spin reaches forecast modelling Flapper 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

Its a bit like Matty then

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

The problem seems to be that Glosea 4 pressure anomalies show for DJF HP anomlay to the north.This would be expected to deliver below avearge temerature anomalies across NW Europe.However the September 2m temperature anomalies from mETO contradict this with above average temeratures favoured (see the above average /below average plot rather than the terciles)

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

I think there's some confusion about the interpretation of SLP anomaly charts. A positive anomaly to the north only means a higher likelihood of low pressure not being there. Even a modest high pressure north of the British Ises doesn't guarantee a cold air mass. As we all know you can have high pressure over Greenland and still have us sitting under a mild flow.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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