http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

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CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

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CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

I think the CFS has nailed this one

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2874.png

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CFS consistent with its timing for a January cold snap

I think the CFS has nailed this one

lol

I'd rather a snowy cold festive period

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

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CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

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CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

What's it currently showing for Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day itself?

And early December...?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2322.png?12

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CFS keen on a bitter spell just after Santa's visit

 

 

What's it currently showing for Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day itself?

And early December...?

Have to say , not 'that' much, finding v cold outbreaks ( prolonged ) isn't that easy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2256.png?12

12PM on the Big Day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2280.png?12

Boxing Day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2244.png?18

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Xmas morning sees us in a chilly airmass from CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2502.png?18

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Followed by a bomb early in the New Year

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

The entertaining maverick Joe ******i now works for WeatherBell, a subscription weather commerce group.
You can however follow his blog.
Also this is a link to an article on notrickszone with references to various long-range thoughts for the Euro winter season.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/
Disclaimer - I have no affiliation whatsoever to the views or otherwise on the above site LOL, but I love the comments about CFS

Just FYI information, Joe B DOES still do a "Saturday Summary" that is free to view;

http://www.weatherbell.com

I think it was during the Saturday Summary that he first made his comments about Europe's upcoming "nasty" winter.

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

A while back I was glancing down a list of past hurricanes which made US landfall, and was interested by how the weak and/or late US hurricane seasons during negative phases of the PDO often coincided with subsequently epic UK winters.

E.g. 1939 a single Category 1 in August; 1946 a single Category 1 in October; 1962 none; 2010 none.

Of course there are years where it doesn't work, but it's a little boost to keep our hopes up for thie winter.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Been loking at he CFS runs as they come out and it really is struggling ot produce anything wintry for a decent period through the months of DJF

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The entertaining maverick Joe ******i now works for WeatherBell, a subscription weather commerce group.
You can however follow his blog.
Also this is a link to an article on notrickszone with references to various long-range thoughts for the Euro winter season.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/
Disclaimer - I have no affiliation whatsoever to the views or otherwise on the above site LOL, but I love the comments about CFS

 

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Should that not be 78/79 as the previous winter wasn't anything special from what I remember?

It was down in these parts!

From Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess= 

1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea! 

1978-79: The last really severe, snowy winter, for now anyway, and one my parents go on about! Late December falls of 6-7n inches in Southern Scotland and the North East started it off. It was very cold in parts. Mid February saw drifts of 6-7 feet on the East coast of England. Mid March had severe blizzards and drifting, in North Eastern England drifts reached a staggering 15 feet! Very snowy. 

Rob

Just FYI information, Joe B DOES still do a "Saturday Summary" that is free to view;

http://www.weatherbell.com

I think it was during the Saturday Summary that he first made his comments about Europe's upcoming "nasty" winter.

To be fair, Gav, he says it every year...

Just FYI information, Joe B DOES still do a "Saturday Summary" that is free to view;

http://www.weatherbell.com

I think it was during the Saturday Summary that he first made his comments about Europe's upcoming "nasty" winter.

To be fair, Gav, he says it every year...

I'm seeing references to 1977/78 all over the place at the moment. The main similarities appear to be in terms of the Atlantic Hurricane Season being subdued by a lack of moisture across the tropics, along with the appearance of blocking to our NE not long into Autumn.

This might explain why a few weeks ago I noticed Joe B giving 77/78 as a key analogue year.

All very interesting, as I would certainly enjoy a Blizzard of '78 style event

Should that not be 78/79 as the previous winter wasn't anything special from what I remember?

 

It was down in these parts!

From Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess= 

1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea! 

1978-79: The last really severe, snowy winter, for now anyway, and one my parents go on about! Late December falls of 6-7n inches in Southern Scotland and the North East started it off. It was very cold in parts. Mid February saw drifts of 6-7 feet on the East coast of England. Mid March had severe blizzards and drifting, in North Eastern England drifts reached a staggering 15 feet! Very snowy. 

Rob

Been loking at he CFS runs as they come out and it really is struggling ot produce anything wintry for a decent period through the months of DJF

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Well it is a model that has a case of over-progressiveness that makes GFS FI look sensible and restrained

I have long wondered how it ever manages to produce multi-run averages indicating high latitude blocking, and from what I've seen over the past year, it appears that even when it sends the jet well to the south south, it keeps it very active, producing vicious storms which in turn support monstrous blocking highs that span huge stretches of the northern hemisphere.

That's why when it does show a bit of high-lat. blocking, it tends to be sensational, leading to those charts that leave people dreaming of raging blizzards and all the rest.

What's more, CFS loves to project a very flat jet profile (fits with the tendency to ramp up the intensity), so on those occasions where that jet is fired due east, CFS can end up showing an entire month of blizzard after blizzard . Conversely, if the jet is fired NE, the blocking lasts no more than a few days.

Thanks to the habit of developing huge storm systems, CFS favours the NE jet, which IMO makes those occasions when it shows more than a transient period of blocking a more significant occurance; it's working against even greater odds than reality to project that.

I have given this a lot of thought over the past 12 months. The tendency to develop extensive blocking only occasionally, but to then take that to the extreme, explains a lot of what I've observed, but what about others on this forum? I'm very interested in your opinions on this

Been loking at he CFS runs as they come out and it really is struggling ot produce anything wintry for a decent period through the months of DJF

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David Icke is more likely to be right than any of these CFS charts. I look at as a bit of fun but you cant take anything it produces (trends or otherwise) seriously, same as any long range view