The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything

Yep. The models simply pick up on various factors/background signals and try to calculate what impact these will have on global weather patterns. These factors can change and can over run one another. Therefore, model output really shouldn't be solely relied upon.

Its interesting though

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything

Don't kill the moment

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything

Don't kill the moment

 

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything

Don't kill the moment

 

It's my job. I am the newly appointed winter version of summer Retron, and boy is he going to know about it over the next few months.

Oh F***

I reckon secretly Matty, you are a closet "winter fan", and this is all reverse psychology!....

Go on, tell me I'm right!

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Joe

Link doesn't work

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

Probably worth pointing out no single model is any better than another at seasonal forecasting, what with it being impossible and everything

Maybe, or maybe not. The Japanese and Chinese seasonal models that Simon K was referencing have been pretty decent these last few years it's true, but a bit less worthless than the worst isn't much of an accolade!

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Joe

Link doesn't work

 How about now?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Winter is over?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Winter is over?

It'll never begin

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2478.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

Again 2014 starts on a Wintry note

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

Have you seen the September update from the BCC SC? I've been waiting for it, but from what I can see BCC haven't updated their charts from August yet? (seems to be a problem on the BCC website I think?)

I thought the one in SK's vid was the September update, as I remember seeing very different charts not long ago. Whether it is or not, I've not been able to locate them on the official site yet

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

I've put it in the diary and booked the Thursday/Friday off work.

I do enjoy a good JFF 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2490.png?12

J F F  J F F  J F F

2014 starts with a Blizzard

I've put it in the diary and booked the Thursday/Friday off work.

I do enjoy a good JFF 

They should start to become a little more frequent

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-2-1818.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Start of December looks particularly cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

Sir Michael's northerly!