There I go, rambling on about the summer again - I just can't seem to help myself! Adapted from my post in the MOD thread:
This year, for the 7th consecutive time, we're finding outselves faced with the old theme of a southerly tracking jet and high-latitude blocking.
But as I've posted before, the pieces are this time arranged differently to most recent years. Last year did serve up something very similar for much of the last third of May, but in many ways that one was closer to a UK high which retrogressed NW, something we've seen all to much of in recent May-August periods. It just managed to find it's way NE a bit first. I actually noted it down as a sign of higher heights to the NE starting to become more of a feature in our weather, the first sign having been in early February that year. Winter 2012/13 then saw blocking to the NE a lot more than to the NW, which was a change from the previous four (or more) winters. March... we all know about March 2013
At the moment, heights keep on rising somewhat periodically to our NE, and the models seem keen on developing major blocking there. After the winter which finally saw a change in the main blocking region, will this summer follow suit?
Bringing my previous post in this thread into things, I believe it will come down to whether the low Arctic sea ice extent promotes blocking to our NW so strongly as to override the influence of the various forces promoting blocking to our NE.
It should make for an interesting summer from a research point of view, whatever the surface conditions here.
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