Pattern matching doesn't work... by itself
I'm never going to make an actual prediction for the summer based on that alone. I need vast amounts more information first... which I don't have the time or money to aquire.
My study simply shows where very similar years have headed in the past, and I only persevered with it because I found a good number of similar years for a combined period of 5 consecutive months, leading me to conclude that the various driving forces behind our weather must have been very similar during those years.
IMO the fact that the various model output for late may is showing strong Azores/mid-Atlantic high pressure trying to build northeast - a close match for what the analogues suggest for June and July - implies that analogue prediction can at least give a rough idea of where we might be going, but probably only when using a long run of months matching (well, nearly matching...) the current year's evolution.
The big issue for me is that the Arctic sea ice is very different now to how it was in any of the analogue years. Potentially this fact alone could steer us on an entirely different, somewhat unpredictable course.
What we do know is that the low ice extent promotes higher heights to the NW and across the Arctic. The developing pattern as we move toward the end of this month is one that promotes lower heights in those regions, so it will be interesting to see what unfolds from that clash of mirror-opposite signals.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On