Got to be better than 2012.....

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I'm expecting fairly normal weather most of the time, with probably some parts seeing more rainfall than average whilst others get less and temperatures averaging out at close to average, despite some very hot days and some quite cool and breezy days.

ie, similar to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Oh joy.....

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I'm expecting fairly normal weather most of the time, with probably some parts seeing more rainfall than average whilst others get less and temperatures averaging out at close to average, despite some very hot days and some quite cool and breezy days.

ie, similar to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Oh joy.....

Just be thankful you don't live in Patagonia - compared with which British summers are extremely warm, dry and sunny 

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https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000

Presentation updated to include an analysis of the April 2013 height anomalies and how they compare to what the anolgue years for Nov-Dec + Jan-Feb + March produced.

Similar years are then used to produce a summer projection, which is then considered against the previous findings of the study to draw conclusions on where we might be heading this year.

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Cool/cold and dry would be my bet basically what we have had so far this year. Looks like we have entered a spell of cold winters and poor summers the question is how long will it last 5, 10 maybe 20 years. Not every summer wiil be poor or every winter cold but I think the majority will be.

 

 

 

 

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https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000

Presentation updated to include an analysis of the April 2013 height anomalies and how they compare to what the anolgue years for Nov-Dec + Jan-Feb + March produced.

Similar years are then used to produce a summer projection, which is then considered against the previous findings of the study to draw conclusions on where we might be heading this year.

SC - It's very good all the incredible effort you put into these things, but - and I hate to break this to you - pattern matching just doesn't work. If it did, someone at METO or on one of these boards would have worked it all out by now, would have worked out long range forecasting. Sorry to have to tell you this

pattern matching just doesn't work.

So, after this cold Spring, even you won't be encouraged by a warm dry October and a 1962-style December?

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SC - It's very good all the incredible effort you put into these things, but - and I hate to break this to you - pattern matching just doesn't work.

Works for me: I look outside, and if my surroundings match to England, I expect a crap summer. 100% success rate since 2007. 

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Pattern matching doesn't work... by itself

I'm never going to make an actual prediction for the summer based on that alone. I need vast amounts more information first... which I don't have the time or money to aquire.

My study simply shows where very similar years have headed in the past, and I only persevered with it because I found a good number of similar years for a combined period of 5 consecutive months, leading me to conclude that the various driving forces behind our weather must have been very similar during those years.

 

IMO the fact that the various model output for late may is showing strong Azores/mid-Atlantic high pressure trying to build northeast - a close match for what the analogues suggest for June and July - implies that analogue prediction can at least give a rough idea of where we might be going, but probably only when using a long run of months matching (well, nearly matching...) the current year's evolution.

The big issue for me is that the Arctic sea ice is very different now to how it was in any of the analogue years. Potentially this fact alone could steer us on an entirely different, somewhat unpredictable course.

What we do know is that the low ice extent promotes higher heights to the NW and across the Arctic. The developing pattern as we move toward the end of this month is one that promotes lower heights in those regions, so it will be interesting to see what unfolds from that clash of mirror-opposite signals.

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Thought I had commented in here but I can't find it! As mentioned elsewhere, a wet and cool/average summer overall expected

Average to slightly above average temperature-wise and rainfall-wise. A decent summer.

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Average to slightly above average temperature-wise and rainfall-wise. A decent summer.

Your expectations for this summer are low then...

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Looks like Spring Will turn out very cold,but still uncertainity on the rainfall picture.Currently it looks  like being a dry one after the  slightly wetter tahn  average March an d  very dry April.very cold dry springs givw eno clear signalas to the following summer.Spring 1962 was very cold and was follwed bya dry but very cold summer.But overall taking all dry very cold springs gives a50:50 to warm and cold summers.

On the other hand if May turns out wet and we get a very cold but   wet Spring there is around a 70% chance  of a cooler than average summer.

CFS is continuing to go against the majority expectation for the summer ahead:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

That anomaly translates to an Azores High displaced NE, building over troughing to the south of the UK, meaning often warm conditions but with some unsettled spells across the south in particular.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

This is taking the June pattern and adding more high pressure. CFS has been consistently predicting a good July for several months now.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd3.gif

August sees the Atlantic trying to muscle in from the NW, but not without resistence from heights to the E and NE, which brings the potential for some hot spells of weather followed by breakdowns from the west to something cooler and unsettled.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd1.gif

From this seasonal mean, you can see why I prefer monthly anomalies!

The usual caveats apply... imagine if other long range models starting coming on board, that would raise some eyebrows! To be honest though, I dare not hope for that.

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JMA three month ensemble forecast for JJA

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php 

Looking very average over the three months.

Surface temp anomaly is bottom left. Surprising lack of positive temp anomalies for the whole region covered, maybe they are all situated north/south of 60 degrees.

JMA three month ensemble forecast for JJA

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

Looking very average over the three months.

Surface temp anomaly is bottom left. Surprising lack of positive temp anomalies for the whole region covered, maybe they are all situated north/south of 60 degrees.

500mb anomaly looks good though, positive across the south and extending out to our east. One would expect +ve temperature anomalies from that, but instead they're neutral for England and also those areas of Europe under +ve height anomalies, for which the explanation can't be the low SSTs... what gives?

Overall, I find that JMA outlook as encouraging as the CFS outlook. Even average will be decent enough

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http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2013/CS201306_201308NHZ500L1.GIF

The latest BCC seasonal model outlook is... notably unsettled overall.

Shown is a tendency for a west-based -ve NAO, but not enough to hold troughing to our west with a Euro High keeping us drier and warmer - instead troughing is most often centred over the UK, while also paying frequent vists to the rest of NW Europe.

Some higher heights occur to our NE but they don't do us much good.

The one big consolation is that this model is showing a markedly different outlook to CFS and JMA, which was the case last year, when it verified terribly having shown a large +ve anomaly centred over the northern two-thirds of the country.

Hopefully it will be just as wrong again this year!

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http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2013/CS201306_201308NHZ500L1.GIF

The latest BCC seasonal model outlook is... notably unsettled overall.

Shown is a tendency for a west-based -ve NAO, but not enough to hold troughing to our west with a Euro High keeping us drier and warmer - instead troughing is most often centred over the UK, while also paying frequent vists to the rest of NW Europe.

Some higher heights occur to our NE but they don't do us much good.

The one big consolation is that this model is showing a markedly different outlook to CFS and JMA, which was the case last year, when it verified terribly having shown a large +ve anomaly centred over the northern two-thirds of the country.

Hopefully it will be just as wrong again this year!

SC, how accurately or otherwise did the CFS and JMA models verify last year. By the sound of your post above, it would seem that they were both nearer the mark with their projections for last summer than the BCC seasonal model was.

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Here is the archive of summer forecasts from all three agencies - run in May of last year - CFS and BCC were showing similar for our region, JMA was closer to what actually transpired.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201205/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201206_201208NHZ500L1.GIF 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php 

My final summer seasonal forecast is coming up on Sunday.

Amongst all the models, there is definete pattern emerging.

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