Why did I not see this? If it's possible may I go for 2.5C? I'm sorry for the lateness, genuinely did not see this thread...somehow! 

also can i go for 3.3

Sorry its late only just been able to login after weeks of trying 5.2c please.

Unless we get a major turnround (and I personally think it's unlikely), those in the orange zone look to be the ones in the running

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I wouldn't judge the whole 90 days on the first 11. Plenty of time for change yet.

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I wouldn't judge the whole 90 days on the first 11. Plenty of time for change yet.

Well obviously - but it's the repeating pattern coupled with the historical difficulty in shifting an entrenched zonal flow that worries me

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I wouldn't judge the whole 90 days on the first 11. Plenty of time for change yet.

Well obviously - but it's the repeating pattern coupled with the historical difficulty in shifting an entrenched zonal flow that worries me

Agreed but even my ridiculously low guess is still in the running, albeit on the edges of possibility.

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Are we honestly expecting another severe month? I mean, honestly? An average month is fine with me, another severe month was always  going to be unlikely.

 

Besides, I thought December would be the warmest month and February the coldest.. so that might still be in the running!

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Are we honestly expecting another severe month? I mean, honestly? An average month is fine with me, another severe month was always  going to be unlikely.

 

Besides, I thought December would be the warmest month and February the coldest.. so that might still be in the running!

It's hoping and as this is for fun I don't see the harm in that. I'd never expect a severe month as its not the normal,but they can spring up out of anything....so I keep the faith.

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I went for a winter CET of 5.6c at this rate it could be too low.

I went for a winter CET of 5.6c at this rate it could be too low.

 

Or it could end up high. 

I am guessing a Winter CET of 6.2C

I think we could be heading for one of the mildest winters on record - was certainly the 3rd warmest Christmas Day on record.

We have not yet hit freezing in southern and western England let alone below freezing. There hasn't been any frost either. Last year we had the coldest December in 100 years as you know so perhaps this year could be the warmest?!

A friend of mine from Poland had -22c this time last year and now she is back at home and it was +4C with little or no snow.

Still time left but as we head into January, with no change on the GFS runs and days getting longer we are running out of time!

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I am guessing a Winter CET of 6.2C

I think we could be heading for one of the mildest winters on record - was certainly the 3rd warmest Christmas Day on record.

We have not yet hit freezing in southern and western England let alone below freezing. There hasn't been any frost either. Last year we had the coldest December in 100 years as you know so perhaps this year could be the warmest?!

A friend of mine from Poland had -22c this time last year and now she is back at home and it was +4C with little or no snow.

Still time left but as we head into January, with no change on the GFS runs and days getting longer we are running out of time!

 

Patience is the name of the game... 

I've gone for 4.7C but with the way things are going I wish I had gone for 6.7C !!

With December CET coming in at 6.0 C its going to be astruggle to produce a below average winter.The Dec CET was 1.5C above the 71-00 winter mean.

To get back just to average would  require as examples either both January and February  to come in at 3.75C,or if January was average(still possible though looking as though it might well be another average month) then Feb would have to come in around 2.9C.

Along way to go for the majority of forum members(including myself) who have gone for below average.!

Here is how the winter CET is shaping up so far. After a cool period in mid December we are back to well above average.

Currently this is the 22nd warmest start to winter since 1772. We should break into the top 20 this week.

I have included on the chart the 3 years with the warmest starts to winter since 1970 for comparison.

GW thanks very much for the update and the cumuative winter CET tracking.For me to be anywhere near (3.9C)I  need some sort of cooling in the second half of January!

Half way point in the winter of 2011/12.Combining the December CET of 6.0 and the latest Hadley at 6.4 gives an average to date of 6.1C

Redmoon on 6.2 and Lazy wind on  6.0a re the nearest with Celtic 1888 on 5.7C in shouting distance.

 

If January stays as it is I reckon I'm going to need a new record breakingly cold month, probably in the region of -3.3C for February, for my prediction to come off. Well records are there to be broken. Eternal optimist.

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Thanks for the update.

If January stays as it is I reckon I'm going to need a new record breakingly cold month, probably in the region of -3.3C for February, for my prediction to come off. Well records are there to be broken. Eternal optimist.

Chances of this have risen from about 0% to about 1% on current model output!

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