I think we never heard about SSW wording that time? Plus the reflective wording also created by some posters thought this will bring snow and cold weather but does not deliver.  it down to luck with the set-up that persist for several weeks unlike last winter the models refusing us to get the cold weather for several weeks so it was down to bad luck.  That bad luck duration lasted for several weeks otherwise we would get this good luck set up from early Jan to mid Feb.

Yes you're right there wasn't one before December 10. It was just the similar conditions I'm hoping for.

(And no the Met Office extended outlook meaning really wasn’t “pretty obvious” unless ambiguous poorly structured statements are what you are used to.)

I love this sort of weather, perhaps only bettered by some snowfall which now seems an unlikely prospect for lowland southern england these days

But sadly, looks like we will be dragging in cloud off the north sea.  So it looks like a dirty high for this part of the world

GFS Op 00z - Agrees with FAX; then by Mon 9th the HP weakens, drifts to the other side of the N Sea and winds turn into the S as a trough approaches Ireland. The trough makes little progress and the cycle starts again - HP comes in from the SW Wed 11th, drifts eastwards, trough just off Ireland Tue 17th.

ECM - like FAX and GFS (though less of an easterly through the Channel at first); the second HP on the 11th is sited further south so more of a W/SW influence  in that week,

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C to Fri 13th (cloudy so little diurnal variation) and dry; then milder (13C) with rain for the following weekend. Edinburgh, maxima 8-9C again cloudy; some spits of rain in the first week but like London milder with rather more rain after Fri 13th.

GEFS - mean temp and ens members near norm to Mon 9th (a little below at first, a little above later). Then a spread of ens members opens up with mean near norm, op and control both much milder. Dry until Mon 9th, then  chances of rain increase, could be heavy in SW England and Wales.

Jet stream for northern hemisphere persistently strong over E Siberia and N Pacific for the next two weeks, but losing its way and fragmentary for that period over the Atlantic. Thus our quiet and still mostly dry weather continues for the foreseeable future,

The change in diurnal variation of 2m temps on GEFS London from large to small variation, which had been shown consistently over the past several days to happen this weekend, gave me the hint that it would turn cloudy. And so it has. Cloud cover and potentially anticyclonic gloom - what I call 'sensory deprivation weather' - looks like persisting for a good few days in this corner of England.

AI suggests no SSW in November 1962, but there was a unusual Canadian warming apparently. 

GFS Op 0z - The HP above eventually drifts eastwards and from Tue 10th a shallow trough lies SW-NE across Britain. A ridge of HP is back from the south for the weekend 14th/15th before a broad but not very active are of LP spreads in from the Atlantic. LP over Scandinavia has some rather cold N -lies down the N Sea Thu 12th, looks as if it will just miss Britain but it would only take a small nudge ...

ECM - the shallow trough on Tue 10th doesn't materialise and instead there are strong but simple W-lies with HP based in N Italy. then N-lies appear from Tue 17th.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from 12C now to 8C Tue 10th then milder 13-15C with some rain likely from that date. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 9-10C, warmer 12th/13th, bit and pieces of rain at any time, rather more Fri 13th.

GEFS - mean never far from norm though  in England slightly cooler in week 1, slightly milder in week 2, but reversed for Scotland ;dry-ish to Mon 9th , chances of rain then increase, sometimes heavy esp in SW

Notable HP this week but after that some rather indeterminate weather

The 06z has found that nudge, and not so small either, with a deepening cold LP moving down the west coast and arriving over S Wales 975mb on Thu 12th ...

EDIT

but the 12z has let it slip a bit- northerlies but not as strong, and LP 985mb in the Channel

GFS Op 00z - from the weekend, pressure continues to drop; by Tue 10th twin LPs 995mb centred Norwegian Sea and France link to form a N-S trough over Britain feeding in cold N-lies, by Thu 12th a defined centre over E Anglia. As this fills, pressure rises over SW France and by Thu 19th that brings in  mild SW-lies with gales in the north

ECM - like GFS .but slower to set up next week's trough, also shows simple N-lies with the trough further east, near Denmark on Thu 12th. Then the HP by Thu 19th extends from France into the Atlantic, tipping winds into gentle W-lies rather than SW-lies.

AIFS - London, maxima slowly dropping from 12C now to 6C Tue 17th with frosty nights likely from Thu 12th, a day's rain on Tue 10th. Edinburgh, maxima around 8C for this week, then a few days at 5C before rising in fits and starts to 10C Mon 16th, tiny amounts of rain from time to time. London and Edinburgh distinctly different.

GEFS - cool now esp in S, but mean and ens members forecasting milder (near mean in Scotland) with rain Mon 9th - Fri 14th. Then drier, mean near norm to Thu 19th but op and control cooler at first and milder later 14th- 19th. A distinct difference from AIFS; generally the same across Britain instead of separating out N & S.

Models suggest a cold snap with cold rain Tue 10th, but otherwise quiet weather with nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year

Even if this too early but really nice to see very different set up pattern than usual HP to the south and Lows to the north.  Would had got lot of snow showers from this set up.   Also glad the model again now dropping the idea of HP borefest that was going to persist to mid month will end in few days time.  This HP haven't deliver wall to wall sunshine just barely escape the gloom and lot of rain that the SE got lately. So it better to go away to Greenland.

Toronto sunny and warm 21C in November so if N America get mild winter we have better chances for us this coming winter.

GFS Op - As above, then a quiet period; although on Thu 12th LP off NW Spain tries to set up a shallow trough across England to link to Scandinavia with NE-lies it fails, and by Sat 14th HP is back over Britain 1025mb. That sinks southwards by Tue 17th and introduces westerlies albeit including a trough passing through on Thu 19th.

ECM - differs from GFS from Sat 14th with pressure dropping over Norway 980mb and strong N-lies for Britain's east coast. But that soon pulls away N-wards and by Tue 17th ECM looks like GFS with HP over France and westerlies.

AIFS - London, maxima mostly 9-10C (a couple of colder snaps Mon 9th and Thu 12th; dry until Mon 16th and Wed 18th cold between these dates then temps a little milder. Edinburgh, maxima 7-9C but like London cooler Mon 9th- Thu 12th; also like London rain Mon 16th and Wed 18th, but also a very little rain this week.

GEFS - mean temp and ens a little below norm to Tue 10th; then mean temp a degree or two above norm with ens members spreading out; op run is a very cold outlier for weekend of 14th and a very warm one Wed 18th. Rain likely Wed 11th - Fri 13th, heavy in SW, in some runs also Wed 7th and Mon 16th.

The previously forecast cold spell around 10th-12th is hanging by a thread and only really featuring in the op run. Rain is still presented on a 'rain tomorrow, never rain today' basis, not good news for water supplies.

GFS Op 00z - the above depression moves northwards only slowly and is off W Ireland Thu 12th. It then gets incorporated into LP moving down from Greenland 990mb Western Isles Sat 14th. That introduces a period of W/NW-lies with LPs following the usual track north of Scotland; 975mb Tue 17th Faeroes and again Sat 21st Fair Isle - from the 14th implies often unsettled for Scotland, passing fronts for England.

ECM - differs markedly from GFS after Thu 12th; that depression off Ireland links with another 980mb Norway, not Greenland, and brings in strong N-lies briefly Sat 14th. After a brief pressure rise from the SW for 15th/16th, depressions develop east of Iceland and run southwards down the Norwegian coast with more cold N-lies for Britain by Fri 20th.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from 10C now to 6C Sat 14th; after a further drop for a couple of days, back up to 12C from Tue 17th. Rain Thu 12th and Tue 17th. Edinburgh, dropping from 10C now to 5C Fri 13th, unlike London, milder just for the weekend 14th/15th, then a more sustained rise to 10C from Wed 18th. Spits of rain this week, then more definite Tue 17th.

GEFS - mean temp with quite closely clustered ens members, a little below norm to Mon 9th , then 2 or 3C above norm through to Sat 21st. Chances of rain increasing after Mon 9th, heavy in SW and also later in W more generally.

Not surprisingly, GFS and GEFS in step but out of step with ECM and AIFS. A good test for the models.

No review tomorrow (Fri); I have a hospital appointment for a deferred angiogram.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

The very cold plunge going to E Med region which is golly cold for November and prolonged too.  If this taken to account for London and here I would we would be looking at -8C or below 850s here with hard frosts, sunshine and some snow showers.

My search now to see this HP get lost or NE get lost as it didn't deliver wall to wall sunshine, frosts at night, It been mild, dull with never ending  gale force winds. I never understood why NE winds are so strong and never stop under HP unlike other direction the winds often die out.  0z thankfully cut the NE feeds and veer to SE at the weekend so hope to see sunshine and frosts.  Some LP hang around in the SW that help to bring some sunshine in between any rain.

does seem a storm at 240 on ECM / GFS or should that be discounted....

Past couple of days have been a good 4-5C below average for the time of year here, so definitely cold.

As for any cold from the on going ssw well that wouldn't be expected for another 4-6 week.

We've already had lower max temps here than many January days in the last decade.

1969 was a better match for an early SSW event and this proved to be hum-dinger of a winter. I remember it well, albeit I was 8 years old. There were frequent wintry periods through the winter, and in fact I don’t remember any Atlantic based west to east flow. But I do remember building an igloo !!

GFS Op 0z - The above depression peters out, but after a brief rise of pressure, Atlantic troughs approach the west (not much effect on the east) Tue 17th and Sat 21st. Then westerlies.

ECM - Like GFS at first but the rough on Tues 17th is much deeper and lying down the east coast 975mb with strong cold N-lies. 

AIFS - London, maxima a little below 10C week 1 and with some cold nights, then a little above 10C week2; rain Wed 11th and then every other day from Tue 17th. Edinburgh, maxima dipping from 10C now to 5C Thu 12th, then a fairly mild spell with maxima 10-13C; trivial rain week 1 then every other day from Mon 16th

GEFS - mean temp and most ens members becoming mild around Wed 11th then dropping back to norm through to Mon 23rd (op and control have their cold moments 13th and 17th) rain increasingly likely and widespread from the 11th in the south, from the 16th in Scotland

Bulletin posted from Worthing Hospital - see Daily Thread

Glad to see the back of this nuisance HP that didn't bring sun, frosts or settled weather.  Will see alot of sun this coming week thanks to the HP absence.  I hope this winter we don't get any HP over us just to the west all the time.