I wonder if we will get snow for the third year in a row on the same day in November!

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Interesting too and glad this horrible HP that now on top is giving overcast weather which modelled previously to last to mid Nov GOD FORBID is a hell to put up but thankfully the models again dropping this and kick this HP up northward to allow lot of sunshine and frosts.

If they are right this really totally opposite to LRF going for very mild, stormy wet November.  It more like Autumn 1995 this time with short lived Autumnal weather that just passed by recently to winter straight away.     

Definitely possible,  November could also be the first below average cet month this year.

It been like this this 2020s decade recently and last recent snow was as far as back in 1995.  To me personally i think winter chances had been moved from typical peak Jan to Feb to now mid November to mid Jan with Spring coming early.   My main focus on the models viewing is to see the HP to leave so to get the sun back and get first frosts too.  Snow if come is a bonus here.

GFS Op 00z - by Thu 5th the latter HP has moved on to the Faeroes 1035mb with E-lies for England. It slowly declines over the following week with LP 995mb Scandinavia  becoming the dominant influence with light N-lies. By Sat 14th a new LP 985mb  Faeroes appears in the circulation of the main Scandinavian LP and deepens 980mb as it moves into the N Sea Sun 15th with N-ly gales for Britain*.

ECM - diverges sharply from GFS after Sat 7th; the HP has declined but the Scandinavian influence is not there. Instead pressure drops quickly over Iceland and the Atlantic, so on Mon 9th there is a weak ridge of HP down the eastern N Sea and a trough of W Ireland with S-lies, not N-lies, for Britain. All this is swept away as the LP near Iceland gathers strength and moves E-wards, by Sat 14th pressure has risen behind it 1030mb N Sea and SE-lies cover Britain.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from ca 13C now to 8C Wed 11th before rising again; often cloudy but virtually no rain. Edinburgh, maxima also ca 13C now bur a swifter drop to 7-9C where it stays until warming from Wed 11th; dry apart from a little rain either side of a cold night Wed 11th.

GEFS - mean temp first a couple of degrees above then below norm in the period to Thu 5th after which close to norm in the middle of well grouped ens members  (control and op among the coldest, as much as 6C below norm at times). Chances of rain increase from Sat 7th, in quite a number of runs from Wed 11th. Snow row figures lifting off zero into low single figures for Scotland but even a couple of 1's on the south coast.

A interesting period of model disagreement

* not as dramatic as some of last night's charts which brought this LP down to the Channel as a deep low with a circulation of very cold air for the season.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Other models seem unmoved, but even they have cool High Pressure....maybe frost & fog becoming prevelant?

GFS Op 00z - the HP over Scotland hangs on for the next fortnight despite Atlantic troughs threatening the west Tue 10th; eventually it sinks southwards and westerlies take over on Sun 15th.

ECM - like GFS for the next week, to Sun 8th. Then this model shows pressure dropping SW of Ireland and eventually a depression running along the Channel 995mb Wed 11th followed first by a rise of pressure but another trough forms to the SW Sun 15th

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C, a little warmer at first and after Fri 13th; occasional splashes of rain, rather more Wed 11th (but still not a lot). Edinburgh, maxima also around 10C and mainly dry for the next fortnight but up to 15C with rain from Fri 13th.

GEFS - mean temp above norm for a couple of days, then close to or a little below norm and dry to Tue 10th, all closely supported by ens members. Then the spread of ens members opens out to +/-7C but mean temp stays near norm and chances of rain increase esp in the west.

Still looking for the wet and stormy 'El Nino late autumn' - not much time left for it to turn up.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcn243hge#?date=2026-11-01 

"During the second half of November, there is an increasing chance of changeable or more unsettled conditions developing, which would mean spells of rain and the potential for strong winds at times. The extent and location of the wettest and/or windiest areas are very uncertain at this range, with the wettest and windiest weather probably towards the north and west, but there are hints that overall the south may be wetter than normal whilst the northwest is drier than normal, suggesting the possibility that areas of low pressure may be steered further south than normal. Overall, temperatures will probably be near or a little above normal for the time of year."

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 30 Oct 2026

What are the hints?  

Is that suggesting that the NW is likely to be wetter than normal but there is a chance that overall it could drier than normal? Perhaps it may be as wet as normal? 

The current model output suggests a predominantly anticylonic outlook but with specific detail varying between models.

Anyway,  the SSW is still on for about 8th Nov,  and then hopefully December 2010 redux.

This is pretty obvious. The northwest typically receives 2-3 (in places more) times the amount of rain on average to the south. So it can still be wetter in the northwest than the south but still relative to average dry.

I think that raises some interesting points, although I'm not sure this is the best thread in which to discuss them:

1. IMO, they're one of the most useful parts of the Met Office website. Even if they only flag possible deviations from climatology, with an indication of the strength of the signal, they're worthwhile. Therefore, I hope they continue, although I agree that at times they could be written better.

2. It's very interesting meteorologically, but with every passing SSW, the link between these events and significant cold outbreaks in the UK seems more and more tenuous to me.

3. As far as I can recall, there was no SSW, but the event was picked up about a month ahead and consistently forecast. Since then, I don't think there has been any significant improvement in the 2–4-week range, although I'll stand corrected on that. That in itself raises questions about the value of AI models at these longer ranges, because you would expect to start seeing improvements by now.

They only ever increase the chances  of a cold outbreak in the UK. I think  without one this winter especially early on we'd have virtually zero chance, with this one maybe a 30% chance of a proper cold spell. January 2013 made me a believer, an SSW in early Jan and 2 or 3 weeks later a proper cold and snowy spell . Textbook. 

I don't think there was a SSW in place in late 2010. Late November / December 2010 was more down to a random series of synoptic coincidences which in turn created an 'inertia' so to speak.