I won't miss feeling like living in a lighthouse every other day, however, a new problem may manifest in the form of reduced air quality and visibility due to millions of fireworks and bonfires going off in a stagnant set up. 

I would love that pre-Christmas scenario! I'll bank it until the 12Z 

Fingers crossed! We're off to a log cabin between the Cairngorms and Trossachs, first weekend in december. It has a log burner. Cold and, ideally, dry, with snow-capped peaks would suit me down to the ground.

This forum is a little slow these days lol. Hints and suggestions have been all over Facebook and the other forums for about 5 days now. I think Brian tried dropping hints something was brewing but didn't really get much response on here. 

In more ways than one! 

Would be nice to have more regular posters contributing here.

GFS Op 00z - High pressure as above firmly covering Britain for a week to Sun 8th before drifting to the SW and allowing W/NW-lies to take over for the following week - cooler, but still looking dry, and returning 1025mb England Fri 13th.

ECM - like GFS but the centre of HP moves eastwards, to the N Sea, as Sun 8th approaches and keeps mild S-lies going.

AIFS - London, dry with maxima drifting down from 15C now to 9C Sun 8th, then a little milder (12-13C) with some rain Mon/Tue 9th/10th. Edinburgh, maxima ca 13C for the rest of this week, then levelling out at 10C to Mon 9th when a day's heavy rain, and cooler (7C) to follow. 

GEFS - mean temp close to norm and well supported by ens members all the way to Fri 13th (perhaps a little warmer for the rest of this week); dry, chances of rain increasing after Sun 8th (also a little more rain for Scotland around Sun 1st).

Cold ramping, alas, not supported by the charts, but the drought goes on - Ardingly reservoir in Sussex recovered from about 15% full to 20% after the weekend's rain but it'll be back down again soon.

Shades of 1962?  The last London pea soup fog and subzero temperatures right at the end of that November. Then came Jan 1963!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1724410-Breakout-thread 

🤣

WRT to the MO, a lovely outlook from succesive GFS runs, with decent support in the Ens and from both ECM and Icon (although not from the AI GFS!)

Wondered what caused all this very cool or even cold air mass over the SE Europe to E Med?  Cyprus now entering the 3rd very cool air mass since it started end of September.   Quite strange to see all the cold are south and not north side.

I think a lot of it is to do with high pressure building. Remember, those are the 2m temperature anomalies.

GFS Op 00z - very little change after Sun 1st for ten days, HP anchored over Britain, perhaps cooler on east coast with light N-lies on its flank. From Wed 11th it sinks south, and there are light W/SW-lies but pressure is still quite high.

ECM - like GFS until Mon 9th when the HP drifts SE-wards, rather than S-wards, allowing a weak trough to cross Britain, before the HP resumes over England 1025mb Wed 11th, then drifting N-wards

AIFS - London, maxima declining from14C now to 8C Sun 8th, then a little rain Mon 9th, one day only,  with maxima back up to around 13C. Edinburgh, maxima 14C now, dropping sharply to 6-8C from the weekend; rising again also Mon 9th to 13C but with rain persisting for that week.

GEFS - mean temp with quite good support from ens members a few degrees above norm this week (perhaps suppressed by local fog which doesn't show up in this chart), then close to norm, maybe a few degrees below norm at the start of next week in the S Op & control are warmer outliers. Chances of rain from Mon 9th onwards, not in all runs, most likely in W.

A classic anticyclonal autumn to start November.

Good news for the water authorities if these exceptions prove to be true, never mind the cold rampers. But these are only 3 or 4 iterations out of the 30 on offer

Some quite remarkable anomalies showing up in Eastern and especially Northern Europe.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/mean-zonal-wind-at-10-hpa-sub-seasonal-range-forecast-77604 

My view: there's an element of "8 out of 10 cats prefer" to this. Whilst it's very interesting from a meteorological point of view, particularly because it is SO early, many people (and I'm not suggesting you're one of them) short circuit and conclude that a major cold spell can be expected. As we've seen in recent years and indeed decades, the chance of cold spells may well be increased, but a) they remain far from certain b) severe cold spells, which is what most people are focusing on, are even less certain.

Btw I cannot log into two on desktop but It seems to work on mobile despite same user and password? Can you advise pls Brian? Cheers 🍻 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=234&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Now look at T+348 in this link rather than T+234, Overnight snow for S England? Surely not!

Though I can remember one November half term ca 1980 when there was an inch or so of snow lying in N Essex for 2 or 3 days, on the shady side of hedges .