I'm seeing a lot of interest elsewhere of a possible replacement of the vortex and maybe even a complete reversal over this way. 

Some are dismissive because of El Nino but I wouldn't be so sure...

1925-26 saw one of the strongest El Nino of the last century. That winter over the UK saw a very cold snowy period from mid November through until after Christmas. 😉

GFS Op 00z - tracks the above developments, then as the HP decays a weak trough crosses Britain Sat 31st before a new HP from the SW becomes centred 1035mb England Mon 2nd slowly decaying and allowing troughs to approach the west coast, one of which eventually moves closer 990mb N Ireland Mon 9th. 

ECM - similar to GFS with slight differences in the position of HPs; Norway not Holland for the first and N Sea not England for the second.

AIFS - London, maximum highest 16C Tue 27th, dropping away slowly to 10C around Tue 3rd before rising again; some rain Mon/Tue 26th/27th, and then dry except Fri 6th. Edinburgh, also a peak on Tue 27th but then more or less flat at 10-12C; rain over the next 3 days, then Fri 30th and Sun 8th, dry at other times.

GEFS - temps up and down above and below norm for the rest of this month, then mean closely supported by ens members near norm through to Tue 10th. Rain now and for the next couple of days (esp in N), perhaps around Sat 31st (highest chance in W) and in some runs from Thu 5th (again more likely in W)

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=aifs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z - after the above, the next LP sweeps north towards Greenland. The HP over Holland declines but is replaced by another from the SW 1040mb covering Britain Sun 1st, and this stays in place for a full week. The it declines and on Wed 11th LPs near Iceland 975mb and near Portugal 1005mb link to form a trough down the west of Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but towards the end of next week i.e. Thu 5th the HP drifts N to be centred near Shetland allowing easterlies for S England.

AIFS - London, maxima 16C now dropping to 10C Sat 7th before recovering a little; rain today and tomorrow , then dry until more on Sun 8th. Edinburgh, mild now, then 12-13 C to Sun 1st, then 8-10C to Sun 8th; rain for the next two days, more Sat 31st, then dry until Sun 8th.

GEFS - temps up-down-up for the rest of this month, then mean temp with good support from ens members close to norm until Wed 11th. Rain today/tomorrow, heavier in N, perhaps more around Sat 31st esp in NW, then dry but chances increasing after Sat 7th. 

After the recent storms, the first week of November looks like a classic sunny autumn spell with leaves changing colour and cool nights

I think Paul Bartlett used to look for a cold but cyclonic November as an indicator of a cold winter ahead.

Yes it's not ideal for sure. But it has been a year of HP so maybe it will carry on in winter.

Hope this bring nice sunny and frosty weather and good for Bonfire night too.  Just hope there no fronts, gloom or rain in this HP this time.

The UK charts are free to access, but the European domain requires premium access.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx  

I recall November 1988 being unusually cold with some wintry weather even here at Kent . . . and we can all remember how the following Winter turned out. 😁

Back to the here and now, nice to see high pressure taking back control in the foreseeable, already appreciating a break from the Atlantic assault. Of course, it's now the time of year where high pressure set up won't always be all smiles and sunshine. 

Having shown average or below normal temperatures to come over the past week or two, the GFS ensembles have now resorted to above average temperatures. Basically, we are back to what has been the default position this year. 

Quite amazing GFS this morning. No discernable rain for pretty much all of England, Wales and Eastern Scotland through the whole forecast. The exception seeming to be Snowdonia and Cumbria.

According to the weather singularities for this period it can happen - "24 Oct - 13 Nov This period is known as the 'Autumn Rains or Continental Trains' as the period starts wet and windy with gales from 26th-29th however high pressure sometimes builds from the East on the 30th".

If it does come off I can't say I’m not looking forward to the dog walks and opportunity for some outdoor chores in the dry. 

GFS Op 00z - develops the HP, localising and intensifying it 1040mb Scotland Tue 3rd, unusually persistent at least 1030mb around NW Scotland or N Ireland all the way to Thu 12th.

ECM - generally agrees with GFS, though a tendency for the HP to be situated over E Scotland rather than N Ireland so more S-ly influence.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from 15C now to 10C Tue 10th, rain today and Mon 9th, plus a cloudier spell around Mon 2nd. Edinburgh, maxima dropping to 8-9C by Mon 2nd and staying there to the 10th, rain now and Mon 9th as for London but omit the cloudier few days.

GEFS -  a warm few days to end the month (up to 5 C above norm) then for the first two weeks of November mean temp close to norm quite well supported by ens members (but watch out for a few very cold outliers from Mon 9th) . A little rain now,  and  for Scotland in some runs around Sat 31st, chances of rain generally increase after Sun 8th. 

This week's rain has gone a little way towards filling reservoirs, but the dry weather returning for the next couple of weeks will keep the water authorities worried.

Lot of very cool airmass feeding to the E Med with Nicosia ensembles going very below average which will be 3rd time to get deep cool air mass in that region.  I think the cold pooling are already in the East that giving E Med very cool air mass so if we get an easterly later on we should see subzero easily.

Look at FAX at T+120, and prepare yourself for disappointment. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

https://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=306&lid=P29&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

If they are correct and to come off this will go against the mild and wet LRF range for November which now looking shaky for first part of November being so dry than wet.  00z ensembles show very dry run here with last rain this morning.  

Yes that LRF already looks a bust. November looking chilly and very dry atm.

Definitely a few eyebrow raisers this morning. Could we get some mid November snow?

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

GFS cloud amounts vary over the 384 hours on the Oz run. Mixed fortunes are likely so not a gloomfest and not a sunfest either. I get nervous about stagnant anticyclones from November to February as they so often turn into calm, chilly, overcast spells - the sort of weather I dislike the most. 

To be fair, you ought to balance this with P11 which is as much above norm as P29 is below on Fri 10th, but "it's the hope that kills you".

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs 

Only cold ramping from now on please 😁

Speaking of cold ramping the ECM has a SSW this morning around the 8th November. We could be in for an interesting late November early December 🤞🤞🤞