GFS Op 0z - following on from FAX, a brief period of SE-lies before a series of broad troughs projected from a parent LP near iceland move across from the west Wed 21st, Sat 24th and Tue 27th - disturbed in the N, less so in the S - before a further trough deepens over Britain 990mb Ireland Fri 30th.

ECM - very  much like GFS

AIFS - London, max temp 13-15C to end of month, small amounts of rain on many days, heaviest around Mon 26th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly around 10C, milder Fri 23rd, cooler Thu 29th, dry at first, rain on many days from Tue 20th onwards again heaviest around 26th.

GEFS - cool at first (4-5 C below norm for the weekend) then up and down but never far from norm Rain starting in the SE Mon 19th, further north around Wed 21st, quite heavy at times throughout next week, dring up to some extent in the following week.

Haven't seen that for a while. The GFS mean consistently below average(albeit only marginally). For months now we've been looking at means well above average. Hopefully, more of this to come in the months ahead 🙂

Chilly outlook too.

The longer-range models have been quite consistent regarding things turing more unsettled and wetter into Novermber and December.

I think the TimS '1010mb' barometer rule is a good one. It just doesn't seem to rain if it's above 1010mb. What's hopeful about recent model output is that the pressure looks lower and for longer, the highs a bit less high. Some models offer useful rain to, others less so.

Whether it's the start of the 500mm or so of rain before 2027 that past experience (2022) indicates will be needed to fill the local reservoirs is another question...

Wimbleball is from what I've heard, harder to fill than nearby Clatworthy. Less catchment area? But hopefully this is the end of the Long Dry of 2026.

Me? Not sure what you mean tbh. Unless it's apps and 95% chances of rain that don't happen...

I recall it's the apps you once referred to. Something along the lines of "I'll believe it will rain when the app says 100%" or something like that.

FAX - today's HP moving quite rapidly across to Russia 1036mb by Wed 21st while troughs from the east work into SE England resolving by the 21st into a depression 999mb N England with fronts lying N-S down the length of Britain.

GFS Op 00z - the above depression links up with the Atlantic westerlies and the storm referred to materialises Fri 23rd 980mb E Scotland. Then a series of LPs tracking eastwards near Iceland but with associated troughs dipping south to Britain Tue 27th, Thu 29th and Mon 2nd interspersed with ridges of HP from the south. The trough on the 29th incorporates some very mild SW-lies occasioned by the remnants of an ex-hurricane.

ECM - as GFS with variations; the depression on Wed 21st is a very shallow feature but the storm on Fri 23rd is further south 980mb Irish Sea and affecting the more populated area of Britain.

AIFS - London, current maxima ca 13C rising slowly to 16C Wed 28th before dipping; rain on most days in the coming week, then again Thu 29th. Edinburgh, also a rise but from 9C to 15C before the dip; dry at first but rain on most days from Wed 21st to end of month, heaviest on Sun 25th.

GEFS - England, temps oscillating quite dramatically between above and below norm (esp in S) before levelling out near norm from Wed 28th (and as might be expected with this pattern, quite poor agreement of ens members); rain from Mon 19th, quite heavy in most runs before drying up somewhat after Wed 28th. Scotland, temps also variable but less so than for England and inclined to be below norm; rain from Wed 21st to Mon 26th, somewhat drier after that.

Is anyone in contact with him outside of this forum? Would be good to let him know he is missed..

The saving grace that the HP that was modelled to stay for prolonged time got me very worried about possible weeks of gloom had been cancelled thankfully as it proved today HP moved in are turned out to be dirty HP as I feared thankfully this dirty HP is leaving fast tomorrow so hope to see more sunshine on Monday with SE flow and no HP on top.

Not a dirty High in Scotland Jiries, our second day of clear blue sky and golden sun ☀️☀️☀️

Not in here today for some reason so it very dirty HP to me, the sooner this HP exit the better is that why I am glad the models drop this HP idea that I can feel it will be gloom, dirty HP for weeks.  06z show lot of westerly to NW flow so more sunny days to come in between fronts and mostly average to below average temps.  More like cool zonality to me which bode well for the Midlands in term of sunshine amount.  

It has an impressive collection of isobars but nothing in comparison to the Great Storm of 1987 which had central pressure ca 952mb - this Friday's on ECM is predicted 985mb and although GFS deepens it to 970mb, by that time it's up near Orkney where such pressures are not uncommon. Its track is also different, across the north of England (perhaps some resemblance to the Burns Day storm of 1990), and it doesn't have a feed of unusually warm moist air to add energy as happened in 1987.

Current predictions for top gusts - over quite a wide area - are around 50mph, but although that's enough to bring down quite a few trees which at least in the south are still in full leaf, there's no need to go OTT like a news editor looking for headlines.

Tuesday, a band of rain lying N-S from E Scotland down through C England to the south coast;

Wednesday, conventional frontal rain from the Atlantic moving eastwards, getting stuck over Scotland;

Thursday, a more local but intense disturbance running across S England;

Friday, drenching rain everywhere south of the Lake District.

Now for the usual charts:

FAX - a ridge of HP for most today, collapsing as the current disturbance over SE England moves NW-wards and links with Atlantic fronts so on Wed 21st there is a centre 1002mb off Yorkshire with fronts extending N & S from there. Back to westerlies on Thu 22nd with a detached front sweeping across S England.

GFS Op - continuing from FAX, a deepening LP reaches the Bristol Channel 975mb early Friday 23rd and by evening has crossed to the N Sea off Yorkshire. It then moves north but returns to the central N Sea, filling by Sun 25th. Then a general rise of pressure with a ridge from Russia to Scotland by Wed 28th, intensifying Sat 31st 1040mb Norway, As this declines, shallow LP spreads N-wards from Spain by Tue 3rd to affect England.

Jet - very strong through the Channel Wed 21st and then looping around Britain until Mon 26th. It then moves north to Iceland and almost vanishes from Mon 2nd, though a fresh pulse is near Labrador at that time.

ECM - like GFS this week (a slightly more southerly course for Friday's storm), then on Tue 27th, LP Faeroes 965mb generates a secondary moving SW-wards 965mb into N Ireland. The ridge of HP forecast by GFS is not present in the final chart (Wed 28th); rather, the westerlies are back.

AIFS - London, maxima around 13C, no particularly cold nights, to Thu 29th then a little warmer. Rain on most days this week, heaviest Fri & Sun, then drier for a few days. Edinburgh, similar pattern to London but maxima 10C, and heaviest rain Sunday.

GEFS - England, mean and ens members up and down to Mon 26th, more on the cool side, then mean settling a little below norm with a spread of ens members; rain on most days this week especially heavy Sun 25th in the S, drier in most runs after that. Scotland mild at first then mean and most ens members a little below norm with less variation than for England; rain on most days this week, drier after 25th but more runs showing rain than for England.

Hopefully tomorrow SE flow to bring full wall to wall sunshine under exiting HP that was very dirty.  Once again so much relief the models had drop this HP gloom fest off.  Cool zonality is welcome for the Midlands we do well with lot of sunshine in between fronts and 00z ensembles show average to below average so that mean mostly NW to W with very brief SW flow.   Sorry for those who enjoying this dirty HP but they need to go no use if not providing sunshine.