Seem GFS not having any of it and showing very nice warm settled week here, then get cooler and then very warm and settled early next week with mid to high 20's from here to London area.  Normal average high in September is 28C so that to be expected.  Thankfully what the ECM showing is in very deep FI at the moment.  This set up doesn't bring snow here just cold rain then cold and dry set up which is boring one in winter.

FAX - one depression moving from mid-Atlantic to Faeroes then filling, draping some fronts across Britain (esp NW) as it goes. New LP Sat 5th + HP in the Channel bringing in some warm and moist air from the SW Sat 5th but not a lasting fine spell as the LP on Sun 6th is 999mb N Ireland.

GFS Op 0z - like FAX but the LP takes a more W-ly track and keeps the fine and warm weather a day longer before moving north and bringing W-lies from 7th before transferring to N  Sea Wed 9th with N-lies (ECM had something like this yesterday). Then a ridge of HP before a reload of the W-ly/N-ly sequence a week later

ECM - like GFS but running the sequence a day earlier e.g. the LP arrives Tue 8th 1000mb Irish Sea

AIFS - London, maxima 21-24C with a little rain until Tue 8th then more definite rain introducing cooler weather 17-20C for a week before warming again. Edinburgh maxima 15-18C with frequent rain but a cooler and drier slot Thu/Fr 10/11th

GEFS - still showing the double hump of warmth FRi 4th and Mon 7th then mean temp close to norm to Fri 18th. In the S chances of measurable rain around Wed 10th, else dry. Further north and esp Scotland the first 'hump' doesn't amount to much; rain likely in N England in the next coule of days as well and for Scotland the rain never really clears away

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Would be nice if this week settled weather did came off, it seem the totally unforecast light rain interferring this coming warm spell this week.  I am hoping next warm spell this weekend to be settled and dry not wet and dull since there no hurricanes around to bring rain and Low pressure so hope the chart you put will happen at some point, well over due for strong HP over UK.   0z ensembles look very dry after the 4th rain which is expecterd but not today so hope it come off very much needed dry weather.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_162_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_174_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

There it is again, as was the 12z; however, further north on the 00z update.

Unsettled in fi too and rather cool should it verify.

Hope so and well overdue for a proper HP as it been very long time now since first half of August.  Hope the 14C uppers on 6th September deliver 29-30C here and not a fake warmth like this week of 11-12 850s which should be 24-25C today if was sunny.  London get to 15C so should see 30-31C there.

Be a nice evolution to have - with high pressure anchored right over the UK, we'd have a few days of the mythical 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' September weather.

Oi!!!

GFS Op 00z - after the FAX forecast, a brief ridge of HP later on next week before a small LP dives S-wards passing through the Irish Sea 1010mb for the weekend 12th/13th. For the following week high pressure sets up over the northwest, slowly drifting into England. (Different from the later GFS charts yesterday which had alternating LP and HP rolling across Britain on a westerly)

ECM - Like GFS but running on a schedule a day or two earlier.

AIFS - London, maxima in low 20s to to Mon 7th (or a little more on the 6th) , dropping to a level either side of 20C, cooler with some rain Sat 12th and Wed 16th, just traces of rain at other times. Edinburgh, similar pattern to London but with maxima around 5C lower.

GEFS - warm in S now, a sharp peak in mean temp Mon 7th (7C above norm in S, less in N) then immediately a dip to below norm but resuming near norm with quite good ens support from FRi 11th. In the south, best chance of rain either side of Fri 11th, dry at other times; in N England/Midlands much heavier rain around this date plus a peak today as well; in Scotland slower to dry up after the 11th 

GFS Op 0z - after the FAX chart, a westerly pattern with alternating LP (1010 Bristol Sat 12th, 990mb NW Scotland Wed, 16th,  Brittany Fri 18th) and HP (ridges in between; after the last LP a more definite rise of HP across Scotland as the LP drifts to Spain)

ECM - like GFS

AIFS - London, warm this weekend but otherwise maxima mostly 18-21C, Rain today, Tue 8th, Sat 12th, but not much. Edinburgh, maxima about 15C but warmer on Sun 6th, Fri 11th , Mon 14th; a little rain this week, heavier on Sat 12th.

GEFS - mean temp shows a peak on Mon 7th esp in S, then a prompt dip to below norm Wed 9th, back to norm from Fri 11th. Rain most likely Thu 10th in the S, then drying up slowly, more persistent and starting a day or two earlier in the NW

All quite seasonal.

GFS Op 00z - the rise of pressure shown in FAX is uncertain at first but a stronger HP moves in from the southwest Sat 12th - mainly for the south over the weekend 12th/13th, then regressing to the west of Ireland by Wed 16th, and finally to Scotland Sat 19th. At this point continental LP 1015mb is close to the SE generating easterlies but probably not near enough to break the dry spell which started on the 12th.

ECM - differs from GFS from Sat 12th when a shallow LP develops over Ireland (in the middle of an area of generally high pressure) followed by a broader trough of low pressure extending from Iceland Tue 15th.

AIFS - London, maxima up to 24C over the weekend, then around 20C for the following week, dropping  a few degrees from Thu 17th; rain Tue 8th and Sun 13th, traces on other dates. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but about 5C lower, rain on many days, perhaps a dry slot Thu 10th.

GEFS - spike of heat on Sun/Mon 7th/8th, abruptly cool to Thu 11th, then mean with quite good ens support near norm to Mon 21st. Chance of rain from Wed 9th, in the south for a week but not a lot, further north starting a couple of days earlier and persisting in Scotland (contrasts with HP forecast in the GFS0z)

NHC - still no tropical depressions on the Atlantic for the next seven days let alone hurricanes

GFS Op 0z - follows the above with a spell of stable westerlies before a trough rolls across Wed 16th followed by a HP cell Sun 20th. Best weather always in South.

ECM - much the same as GFS with up to a day's difference in timing

AIFS - London, after today's warmth maxima drop to 20C to Sun 20th (a little cooler Thu 17th); rain Tue 8th, odds and ends on some other days. Edinburgh, peaks near 18C today, Fri 11th and Fri 18th else maxima near 15C, rain on many days,  possible dry slots Thursdays 10th and 17th

GEFS - after warmth today and tomorrow, a couple of days below norm, then from Fri 11th to to Tue 22nd near or a little above norm. Rain in the south from time to time but not in every ens member and never very much in the S & E; heavier falls in the N & W but persistent only in the far NW

Anything warm, settled and more importantly drier is badly needed now.  After the drop this early next week on the ensembles it looking warmer above average and very dry too.   Didn't see any interest posts about today maxiumum which I expect London to get to 30-31c today under near 17C 850's while here is 15C this afteroon so expect 28-30C.  Due to their too high 38-40C expectations even for September they don't bat a eye lid now for 30-31c posts this month.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Did you mean to say in the Midlands northwards? I've had 15mm in close to the last three months. Like most of the S.E we need rain desperately and the drought has never stopped here.

You must be joking! I'm still putting several cans of water on the garden every day, groundwater supplies are descending to a historic minimum, farmers are having to break open stocks of hay destined for winter feed because grass isn't growing .... try to imagine what it's like south of the M4.

AIFS suggest that London might get a decent fall of rain on Tuesday (20mm, hurrah!) but after that its so little and so spread out that it'll evaporate before it sinks in (an average of just over 1mm per day for the next 10 days). That's not going to solve any water shortage problem.

EDIT - it doesn't help that Thames Water's desalination plant is out of order (When did anything connected to Thames Water ever work since Macquarie drained its cash?) but the article has some figures on river flows to think about.

https://www.thecooldown.com/green-tech/desalination-plant-london-thames-water-offline/ 

GFS Op 00z - agrees with FAX on period of westerlies lasting to Mon 14th, but with pressure quite high near S England so fine there; eventually the HP gathers up and forms cell covering all of Britain  1025mb Wed 16th. This moves east to the N Sea with warm S/SE-lies (maybe hot, given temps over Europe) for the weekend 20th/21st before the HP resumes from the SW 1030mb Wed 23rd.

ECM - like GFS but throws in a trough briefly crossing Britain before the HP finally establishes, as above, on Wed 16th.

AIFS - London, cooler with rain tonight (less than shown yesterday, 13mm rather than 20mm) then maxima near 20C to Mon 14th with occasional spots of rain; maxima drop briefly before rising again, and then dry to Mon 21st. Edinburgh, maxima up and down 15-18C to Mon 14th with rain at regular intervals; then like London, cooler before maxima rise again, to 18C by Mon 21st, and dry.

GEFS - In the S becoming cooler with mean supported by ens members 4C below norm, recovering Fri 11th and then about 3C above norm to Tue 15th before ens agreement breaks up; mean stays near norm (by Mon 21st some runs 10C either side of norm, op & control warm and cool by turns).  Similar in the N but cool and warm periods les well defined.  Rain in the S. tonight, perhaps around Sat 12th, then on random dates in some runs. The N has only a little rain tonight but small amounts on many days thereafter; heavier in NW England and W Scotland

NHC - No tropical disturbances on the Atlantic for the next 7 days

The Op chart looks good, but given the spread of ens members at that time, I wouldn't bet on it too strongly.

GFS Op 00z - the westerlies shown in FAX continue for a week, with pressure quite high in the south; eventually an HP cell forms and moves in to cover Britain 1025mb Thu 17th. This slowly drifts northwards (1035mb Faeroes Thu 24th) and by then is drawing up warmth on S/SE-lies.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but more of a trough on Wed 16th preceding the HP; and that HP flattens southwards rather than developing northwards.

AIFS - London, slow rise of maxima to 22C over the next week, with a little rain after heavier today; then a dip to 17C recovering to 20C by Tue 22nd, dry with wind shifting inti the east. Edinburgh, similar trend in temp, maxima rising to 18C before drop to 15C and rise again; the big difference is rain on most days this week, particularly heavy Mon 14th before drying up.

GEFS -  Significant rain in the south today then widely small but definite amounts Fri 11 th and Sun 13th (also 15th in Scotland), after that various runs promise some rain but disagree on timing and intensity. Mean temp well supported by ens members for the next week, a few degrees below norm for a few days then a few degrees above norm to Tue 15th, mean returning to norm and lasting to Thu 24th with bigger spread in ens; op and control amongst the warmest runs.