FAX - standard westerlies with fronts crossing the country Tue 15th, Thu 17th, and more lined up for Sun 20th, each associated with a depression south of Iceland also moving eastward, brief rises of pressure in between, mainly effective in the south.
GFS Op 00z - like Fax, but greater rises of HP between fronts, and in particular enough on Sun 20th to push fronts away northwards and form a cell 1030mb Mon 21st SW England. This HP cell dominates UK weather to Fri 25th, moving to NE England and bringing up warmth from the south before flattening out and sinking southwards Wed 30th
ECM - quite close to GFS Op until Thu 24th when the HP is moving quite rapidly eastwards, centred Estonia.
AIFS - London, maxima 20C, a couple of degrees warmer at first and again Mon 21st, then dropping to around 15C. Traces of rain occasionally in the first week. Edinburgh, maxima around 15C but much warmer today and Mon 21st (20C) , cooler (12C) from Sat 26th. Rain on many days, drier slots around Wed 23rd and Sun 27th.
GEFS - In England temps a few degrees below norm Tue 15th -Sat 18th, otherwise mean typically 4 - 5 C above norm, supported by ens members for the first week after which a spread develops but no dramatic outliers. Small amount of rain Thu 17th in S, more persistent in N for the first week, else most likely dry, perhaps some after Sat 26th. In Scotland, the cool period 15th-18th is there, but the subsequent warmer temps fad back to norm earlier (Sat 26th). Rain quite likely at any time but especially Tue 15th, Mon 21st and Sun 27th.
NHC - small tropical disturbance in C Atlantic, but virtually no prospect of development to TS let alone hurricane in the next 7 days
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard
Chichester 12m asl