GFS 6Z has 30C+ only just across the Channel, wouldn't take much to nudge the heat over to us.

I hope next week's warm, dry hiccup is just that. But not everyone will agree, I'm sure.

GFS Op 00z - the two areas mentioned in FAX (Greenland and Western Isles) merging into a trough stretching across the N Atlantic with westerlies for Britain until Sat 5th when pressure drops in mid-Atlantic brings up warm and likely humid air from the southwest. It doesn't last - the mid-Atlantic area of LP becomes a closed -circulation LP 980mb Western Isles and brings back northerlies as it passes eastward Mon 7th. Finally a modest rise of pressure over Scotland Sat 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS but more unsettled with LP centres closer to N Scotland; and the LP from mid-Atlantic arrives a day earlier on Sun 6th.

AIFS - London, maxima around 20C to Sun 6th, then rising to 27C Thu 10th. Rain frequent to Sun 6th, heavy at first, dry after 6th. Edinburgh, maxima dropping from 18C to 15C Sun 6th, then warmer to 20C. Rain on most days, heavy on Sun 30th.

GEFS - mean temp and ens members agree on a period near norm to Wed 2nd, after which a spread of ens members develops; probably a little above norm to Wed 9th; then the mean is dragged back to norm by a number of cold runs including op and control 5-6C below norm. Rain on many days; in the south/southwest some heavy falls in the next few days and again after Wed 9th. For the Midlands north to Scotland, rain both heavy and frequent.

NHC - the only disturbance is well south near Cabo Verde but with 70% chance of becoming significant.

Warm, muggy and wet/very wet at times for most.

Im not suprised though.

No such problems here 😒

Same on AIFS on 00z, something brewing up for those date 9/10th September for a while now.  I am hoping for last 7th heatwave of the year to happen in September.   Checking the ensembles for here looking very dry once August exited so if London also the same no rain in early Septmber and ground properly dried up should give us 33-35C and if we can get 35c for 5th month in the row too make it very interesting stats.   Need the models to count down as time is running out for 20Cs 850s.

Figures. We go on holiday (Spain) on the 13th. So expect lovely weather whilst we're away.

I'm in Angelsey with some mates the previous weekend, so expect rain.

GFS Op 00z - that area south of Greenland resolves into a depression which moves slowly past the Faeroes to Finland by Sun 6th with N/NW winds behind it. On Tue 8th a shallow LP in this N-ly flow reaches the N Sea; there is then a brief rise in pressure before an Atlantic LP moves across to Shetland 970mb Sat 12th with some distinctly cold N-ly gales. No ex-hurricanes to change the pressure pattern.

ECM - generally agrees with GFS though by Mon 7th the LP near Finland has withdrawn further east and this allows a weak area of HP to  establish over Britain with any N-lies restricted to Norway.

AIFS - London, maxima mostly 20-23C, a little cooler after Wed 9th, small amounts of rain on most days to Fri 11th. Edinburgh, progressive decline in maxima from 18C now to 14C Thu 10th, significant rain for the coming week, an almost dry slot for the weekend of Sat 5th, more rain after that.

GEFS - mean temp and ens members agree on near norm to Thu 3rd, half-hearted agreement on a slightly warmer few days, then a wide spread of ens predictions from Sun 6th; mean stays near norm, op and control notably cold for the following week (6C below norm around Wed 9th). Some definite rain this weekend; a drier slot Tue/Wed 1st/2nd; then some chances of rain any day through to Sun 13th in the S, much higher chance and heavier further N and into Scotland.

Wonder how long it'll be before the "good for the lawn" novelty wear thin? We really do need the rain, though. 

Next weekend being shown by all models as under HP from Lancahshire or Lake District southwards.

Scotland is in for a truly abysmal week - in fact, it's suffered all summer.

This often happens when a breakdown occurs in the deep south.

Rainfall has tended to come in short bursts over the summer, and river levels and Highland reservoirs are generally really low. It’s been coolish, but visitors from down south have loved it. There’s been a fair amount of cloud, but, being Scotland, you generally don’t have to travel far - north or south, west or east - to find the weather you want.

(And I don’t work for Visit Scotland!!)

GFS OP 00z - The last of these LPs heads for the Faeroes with cool NW then N-ly winds behind but a rise of pressure 1025mb English Channel Sat 4th promises a fine weekend for all but the far NW. Pressure then remains fairly high over Britain until Wed 9th when LP moves from S of Iceland past Scotland and into the southern N Sea 985mb Mon 14th with some chilly N/NE-ly winds behind.

ECM - the rise of pressure next weekend is only marginal in this model, and is soon crunched by LP from the SW moving to Aberdeen 990 mb Tue 8th.

AIFS - London, maxima generally 21-22C with short  warmer spells to 25C Fri 4th and Sat 12th. Rain likely today and Wed 9th, traces at other times. Edinburgh, maxima 17-19C but cooler to14-15C around Tue 8th, small amounts of rain every other day from Sun 30th.

GEFS - For England mean temp with ens support to Thu 3rd near norm becoming slightly warmer. After 3rd, mean stays near norm but ens spread out, op & control both   very warm Tue 8th before going in opposite directions. Rain at first, dry slot Tue 1st, then possible at any time and heavy in N England. For Scotland, mean temp and ens members close to norm or a little below to Thu 3rd (no warm spell)  then mean on cool side for most of the time to Mon 14th while the spread referred to develops, and op & control mirror that above. Rain on most days, no discernible dry slot, and heavy in the west.

GFS Op 0z - Thursday's LP  (see FAX, above) moves N of Scotland to Scandinavia, followed by a rise of pressure with an HP cell 1025mb England weekend of 5th/6th - generally fine and warm though SW-ly gales in the Western Isles. This converts, as so often this summer, into a broad ridge lying W-E across N England with areas of low pressure fringing N Scotland and S England, persisting to Tue 15th when a general breakdown from the Atlantic looks likely. 

ECM favours low pressure instead; after the 5th/6th a depression pushes across N England on Mon 7th 1005mb, and another is shown approaching W Scotland on Wed 9th.

AIFS - London, maxima 21-23C until Sun 6th, dropping to 17-18C for the following week. A very little but persistent rain in the first week (showers?) but heavier on Fri 11th and Sun 13th. Edinburgh, 16-18C in the first week and 14-16C in the second, significant rain on most days until Tue 8th, then one more wet day Fri 11th.

GEFS - In England, mean temp with fair ens support shows two very warm but short spells, Sat 4th and Mon 7th, near norm before, between and after. From Fri 11th, mean stays near norm but op & control both warmer. Rain likely tomorrow (Mon) and possibly around Tue 9th in the south but persistent and often heavyto the NW. In Scotland, the first warm spell is no more than a ripple on the graph, and the second is reflected in op & control rather than making a difference to the mean. Rain frequent, often heavy in the west.

A return to a hot summer in S England (including drought) according to GFS but ECM offers a more traditional changeable outlook.

Well like everywhere else it varies from area to area and although dry now, July /August were predominantly wet in the Kyle of Sutherland area  with rivers running in spate regularly in contrast to the South of the U.K.

% of members with Max temperatures C ≥ 26

theweatheroutlook.com GEFS data tables

GFS Op 00z - ignores the trailing front and associated LP, replacing it with a fine and warm weekend, high pressure covering Britain 1025mb Sat & Sun 4th & 5th. This pulls back for a while with NW-lies on Thu 10th but returns as a ridge across N Britain the following weekend. Then again it pulls back with much stronger N-lies with LP from Greenland reaching the Western Isles 975mb Wed 16th. 

ECM - Somewhere between FAX and GFS for the weekend with HP centred over N France. Then on Wed 9th the HP retreats completely as deep Lp establishes itself 975mb Western Isles, just a week earlier than the one in GFS.

Hopes for continued summer weather rest with GFS. No sign of any ex-hurricane to break the pattern.

AIFS - London, 20-23C maxima to Sun 5th with trivial amounts of rain (showers?) every day; then a dip to 16-18C with a period of rain on Wed 9th before dry but temps recovering only slowly. Edinburgh, maxima 16-18C to Sun 5th with more definite daily rainfall; then like London cooler, but to 14C, and drier with temps recovering from Fri 11th.

GEFS - for England, mean temp and ens members show a double pulse of warmth, about 5C above norm, Sat 4th and Tue 7th, otherwise mean near norm with moderately good ens support (but some wild outliers Sat 11th at 16C above norm and 7C below). Not much rain in far S/SE - best chances from Thu 9th onwards, heavier in SW, but quite persistent in the N with only brief dry slots now and Sun 5th. For Scotland, similar, but the pulses of warmth are less marked, outliers also less noticeable and rain on most days, heavier after Sun 5th.

GFS OP 00z - in contrast, this model retains the HP over Britain 1025mb Sat/Sun 5th/6th but it retreats SW-wards to the Atlantic and LP 985mb Orkney Thu 10th brings in cooler NW-lies. The HP is back  for England Tue 15th with longfetch SW-lies, and then moves north to Scotland.

ECM - halfway between the above two models, with HP close to S England but not a defined centre. Then it diverges sharply as a small LP rapidly deepens, running south to the Bristol Channel 985mb Wed 9th with severe N-ly gales for the Irish Sea. This disappears as quickly as it came. leaving Britain under weak N-lies controlled by low pressure in Scandinavia.

GFS for an extended summer, ECM for a first taste of Autumn, FAX for nondescript weather

AIFS - London, maxima around 23C this week with small amounts of rain from time to time, dropping to 15-19C next week with heavier rain Wed 9th, Sat 12th and Tue 15th. Edinburgh, maxima 16-19C this week with quite heavy rain on several days, again dropping next week to 14-16C, rain on 9th and 12th but not 15th

GEFS - similar to yesterday's chart with a double hump of warmer weather on Fri 4th and Mon 7th, less noticeable in north,  then mean near norm but better ens agreement than yesterday though op and control rather warm from Sat 12th onwards. In the south, small amounts of rain this week, maybe rather more next week; in the north similar timing but larger amounts.

This review will be later tomorrow; car has to be taken in for MoT

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_192_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_198_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

Core, that's a bit Autumnal from the ECM 00z!!☔