https://wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_126_2.png 

It’s not quite there for 

Shetland but not too far off. 

*And yea I am joking but after a day of mid-teens it certainly feels a bit more like autumn than summer.

This one? Apparently it was 2070-2100!

[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/Koppen-Geiger_Map_GBR_future.svg[/img]

The HP is further west so it introduces cooler air from the north instead of the plume.. so around 26-27 instead of 36-37! Still hardly cool but it's all relative.

Dave- orange and lemon trees have been over-wintering for > 20 years in my garden- and olives. Even Andalucia in S Spain gets serious frost in the worst years and these plants cope.

Surprisingly, not only are no hurricanes predicted for the Atlantic for the next 7 days (and probably more) but the Pacific has also gone quiet, down below 40% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

Where's all the energy going?

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=156&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Isn’t this a consequence of the rapidly building El Niño?  I was reading that the extra energy from that increases wind shear, which disrupts tropical storm development. It could be unrelated but it’s a possibility based on past El Niños.

Had to look closely to the screen to read those numbers, I think they should make the numbers in bold white numbers.  Still going to be very warm this weekend then hot next week 30-32C here with uppers 15C on 00z ensembles.

Surely they will have to improve it quickly.

Output looks mainly hot and mainly settled.  AIFS the most hot 

GFS Op 0z - In addition to the LPs on FAX, there is a following LP which moves to west of Ireland 1005mb Wed 12th and in combination with a rise of pressure over the North Sea brings hot air up from the south again for a couple of days. This LP shuffles around to the NW of Britain and then on Sun 16th crosses Scotland with cool N/NW-lies in its wake. By Fri 21st LP near Iceland  and HP Azores generate SW-lies for Britain. Little suggestion of rain for the south in all this.

ECM to T+240 - similar to GFS but keeps pressure higher to the southwest as that LP crosses Scotland on Sat 15th (last chart)

AIFS - London, maxima rise steadily to 33C Thu 13th and dry; then tumble to 17C Tue 18th with substantial rain. Edinburgh, maxima 16-18C to Tue 11th, then warmer at 23C for a couple of days all with occasional light rain; then again tumbling to 14C with heavy rain on Mon 17th.

GEFS - In England, cool at first, then a two stage heatwave, 5C above norm Sun 9th and 7C above norm Thu 13th (less in N England) before dropping to norm from Sun 16th. Rain increasingly likely from 16th onwards to Fri 21st. In Scotland, not so much a heatwave on those dates as peaks close to norm between cooler periods, heavy rain likely after 16th and smaller amounts occasionally before that.

I think that's a bit harsh because there are a lot of moving parts involved in downloading the data and transforming it into charts, so it's very easy for things like this to happen. Also, they are providing a free service!

Love Wetterzentrale.de look at it everyday.  Along with your charts the best around.  Both yours and Wetterzentrale.de the most aesthetically pleasing 2m top charts especially.  So it's a bit of a shock to see them change it this way.  

Another update needed surely though as it doesn't work.

I agree. I know it's a free service but surely somebody there should test the output to see how it looks to end users!?

Schoolboy error! 

Definitely,  odd it was allowed to go public. 

Yes the 6Z GEFS has really firmed up on a peak close to 20C at 850mb around the 12th or 13th, after an initial bump up to 15C or so at the weekend.

Surely that's as likely as a 43C day? -5 isotherm that early in August?

Of course -5 doesn't equal snow on its own, but point taken: if the usual summer warmth has been bottled up somehow south of the jet (and reading Crepuscular Ray's threads it wouldn't surprise me), then like a displaced PV in winter, such incursions might be possible, although it's still a long sunshine day in the Arctic.

From Saturday-

30c, 35c, 36c, 34c, 35c, 36c, 36c, 33c, 31c, 32c, 

Actually a 37 in Kent on Thursday. 

Certainly not what I hoped for when I saw the charts just now, another crazy week if correct, can't even fill the paddling pool. My sister in law is arriving from a Melbourne winter next week, might need to give her a head's up to not pack for a normal UK summer.

Oh yes, that’s why I made sure to include the fact that I was joking. It’s a bit of an antidote for parts of the north as people talk of a fifth heatwave while we wait for a first one, and there’s no sign from the models that will change. For example the t850hPa 12z GEFS mean here is 1.3°C tomorrow. The north-south difference is stark and continues to be more significant than you would typically expect.