Heatwave 1 would be nice for some. 

The GFS 12z op has a max of 13°C here on Monday and 11°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. Does that meet the threshold of a “coldwave“ over a three day period?

We've been cooking down here. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

It has. We only got to a pathetic 23c here today and it felt chilly. Fortunately it’s warming up again in the coming days 

I was watching the Met Office's weekly livestream which they put out once a week on a Friday and that north-south divide was shown really well there.

In that livestream, they showed us a map with the number of heatwave days during this summer so far across the UK. That map clearly showed a very high number of heatwave in the south of England and parts of Wales in particular yet virtually all of Scotland was completely white on that map, thus showing that there has been no heatwave days up here during this summer.

Yes, a slightly warmer than average month but looks like being a cool start to the next month based on recent and current output.

23c is still above the average for Bristol in July/August. It just shows how quickly our expectations change.

GFS 12z going for 15C here so 30-32C on Monday here and London 33-35C so possible 4th month in the row to get 35C.  

I was being tongue in cheek. It’s quite something that this has been cool for this late spring/summer

Last year was similar. The new norm

Ah, I should have guessed 🙂

But yes, the new norm; until next year when we could well see a turbocharged year courtesy of what is shaping up to be the warmest El Niño in recorded history, pumping huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere from autumn through to sometime next year.

Indeed. It’s not this summer that was ever expected to be impacted by El Niño, and has not been - it’s next summer. Could be quite something, in theory. 

FAX - weak LP moving in from the southwest reaching Scottish borders 1007 mb Tue, fronts stalling over northern Scotland, moving steadily eastwards across Britain, but suppressed in the south by European HP 1016mb. Notably on Wed 5th the whole of Europe is a uniform 1016mb from the Baltic to south of the Mediterranean.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with FAX; then ridge of HP from the west resumes across Britain (warm air in its circulation even though wind light northerly), and eventually settles as an area of HP covering all of Britain 1030mb Tue 11th. The HP declines slowly and LP starts to run in from Iceland to the northern N Sea, introducing cooler NW-lies and eventually a discrete LP 1005mb Wales Mon 17th. No sign of an ex-hurricane on the Atlantic which was in yesterday's charts.

ECM to T +240 - as GFS then the HP Tue 11th is positioned over the N Sea weaker at 1020mb while the fringes of a mid-Atlantic LP 990mb begin to affect Ireland and the west of UK.

AIFS - London, maxima to a peak of 29C Mon 3rd, dipping to 23C before rising again to 27C Tue 11th but falling to 20C Sat 15th. A very little rain Tue 4th and Fri 14th. Edinburgh, mostly around 17-18C, brief peak of 20C Mon 10th, some rain on several days but heaviest on Tuesdays 4th and 11th. (yes, the latter disagrees with GFS)

GEFS - England, a peak (mean & ens) up to 7C (less in N England) above norm Tue 4th, then mean a couple of degrees above norm through to Mon 17th but with hotter outliers in both control Sat 8th and op Thu 13th; rain possible on the foregoing two dates but not in most runs though in each case a few runs have enormous totals. Scotland, mean temp well supported by ens close to norm through to Mon 17th with no marked outliers; rain heavy around Wed 5th and Fri 14th but far from dry on other dates. 

Still a country of two halves

The nights are drawing in, and the sun is gradually losing its power with time.

The models continue to look warm and have a convective feel to them that we have seen so far this summer.

Interestingly, nearly all the long-range models are going for a wet/very wet Autumn and Winter ahead and may have some interest for cold fans later on in the Winter from some of the Copernicus models and some of the Asian models.🤔

Purely based on the statistical average for an  El Niño year in this part of the world. 

We are in uncharted waters as regards the El Niño that’s just taking hold.  I’d take any long range forecasts with an even bigger pinch of salt than usual.

The Copernicus models are suggesting that well above average temperatures are likely in late autumn and early winter. The signal is unusually strong, even compared with recent years. A correlation between El Niño and later winter cold snaps has been identified which is perhaps what you are referencing? That said, it seems weak to me and, more often than not amounts to little more than a few chilly days with a centimetre or two of wet snow in March, at least in southern Britain.

Are we assuming a warm October.  🙂🙂🙂

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-68_AIGFS_v1.1.pdf 

I think in UK weather forecasting these days you always start with the assumption of above average temperatures for any given month. 😊

Yes, start at 1.5 above and go from there! Bear in mind the anomalies this year wrt to 61-90 are bonkers, as per Hadley:

Month Anomaly 

January +0.6

February +3.4

March +2.5

April +2.5

May +2.5

June +3.3

July +3.6 provisional to the 30th

At least from reading those notes the AIGFS has four more years of current climate data added to it - the less it relies on the old pre-2010s data the better.

And we now just need an anomaly of +0.6 for the rest of the year to break last year's annual CET record. Would take a huge turnaround to not break it at this stage, surely. At this rate an annual CET over 12C wouldn't be too surprising tbh.

Met Office auto goes for 31C in London, 33C in my area.

Indeed. It's staggering really. Imagine it was January and the charts were showing -3C max in  much of the south on Monday, but the pundits were talking about the possibility of cold spells later in the month. It seems we now just accept that it will be hot. 😂35C would be hotter than any day in the 1980s IIRC, but it barely raises an eyebrow now.