FAX - As predicted, the HP sinks away to the southwest allowing northwesterlies to set up over Britain. The first front in the new dispensation, on Friday 24th, is a weak and decaying affair, but the one which follows is more active than shown yesterday and reaches the couth coast on Sunday 26th.
GFS Op 0z - very much as FAX but maybe unsettled weather doesn't reach as far south. The high pressure comes back from the southwest for a few days but then breaks down as a shallow LP 1010mb is sitting over Scotland on Fri 31st. Then a deeper LP 980mb develops west of Ireland Mon 3rd - at first this pumps up more warmth from the south but later (Thu 6th) imports LP from France, with heat giving way to colder Atlantic air - classic thundery breakdown.
ECM to T+240 - like GFS but the LP 31st is west of Ireland and runs rapidly northeastwards.
AIFS - London, maxima 25-27C; a little cooler Sun 26th with splash of rain, a little warmer Wed 29th, but from cooling down after Mon 3rd again with a little rain. Edinburgh, maxima about 20C, cooler and warmer as for London, but a little rain regularly from Sat 25th onwards, and definitely heavier Mon 3rd.
GEFS - mean temp near norm, perhaps a degree or three warmer around Fri 31st, good ens support to 31st but after that a big spread with control and especially op very warm in the east from Mon 3rd. Small chance of rain in the south Sun 26th and in the first week of August but firmly forecast for N England and Scotland, heavier and more persistent the further north you go.
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard
Chichester 12m asl