Wahey! A 'summer is over' post when we're bang in the middle of the season.

FWIW, here's ECM at t+300

https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/ec/2026/07/17/basis00/euro/pslv/26072912_1700.gif 

There isn’t any evidence of the post you quoted. It’s complete nonsense. We are halfway through the season and September is usually a hot month these days 😂😂

Is purple still the mean? In which case, as I said, looks like mid to high twenties till August. Big spread though so 30C in London is still possible before the end of the month. As we've seen the last 2-3 days the slightest change in t he position of the HP can make 5C difference. Breeze and just a brief patch of cloud can be significant as well.

No, the mean isn't plotted on there. However, from the 2m mean temperatures from the 00Z ECMWF IFS ENS showed this. Remember that 2m maxes are a bit higher.

ECM ENS 00Z Fri 17 JUL 2026 - London

% of members with 2m temperatures C ≥ 30

theweatheroutlook.com ECM ENS data tables. Based on ECMWF data.

GFS Op 0z - continues where FAX left off but the HP begins to drift southwards with cooler winds in the west or northwest; eventually (Tue 28th) LP 990mb Shetland brings the 552 dam line south to Wales. HP then revives across Scotland from the SW with easterlies for England from Fri 31st and finally LP moves into the Channel from France 1010mb Mon 3rd.

ECM to T+240 - like GFS but the HP with warmer air hangs on, taking a day or two longer to move southwards, and keeping the 552 dam further north, near N Scotland.

AIFS - London, maxima close to 25C, occasional spits of rain, to Fri 31st; sudden boost to 34C on Sat 1st. Edinburgh, maxima 22C at least on alternate days to Fri 24th, then mostly top teens to Fri 31st but again a final boost on the 1st, to 24C; some rain Sun 26th and Sat 1st.

GEFS - mean temp well supported by ens members near norm to Mon 3rd (but op a hot outlier from 1st), chances of rain from Sun 26th (a few runs with big totals inland)

Excessive heat off the menu for the rest of July but nevertheless pleasantly warm; chance of rain subject to coin-flipping

As long the HP does not sit to the west which mean every morning the clouds panic forming as early as 7am ro 8am and clear at evenings which no useable to me at all.  Until now I never figure out why HP love to go west than east as it should be with Earth rotating?  Some chap from Estonia really angry about his poor summer as the LP over Scandi refusing to move eastward so the HP here can go east as well.

USA does not have any block pattern that why they get more variety weather pattern, i never seen Toronto get stuck with same weather for weeks like NW Europe does.   Really like to see improvement in August with sunshine amount than this month.

Apart from yesterday evening I literally can’t remember the last time I saw a cloud. Was several weeks ago

Have you managed to miss the low cloud in the mornings then? A couple of days last week were fully overcast until late morning here but once that cloud burnt off it has been largely clear.

Yeah, we’ve been lucky here. Sunny starts every single day. I mean there has been the odd wisp of cloud around, and ironically a fair bit this afternoon, but still mainly sunny. 

The rest of the available 12z's have more of Azores influence and not much rain about, the ukmo in particular has it fair and warm in Yorkshire. 

Seem it been push back again to following Monday being coolish day at 17 which won’t happen again as shown on the app put 22 next Saturday was 19 this morning forecast.   Push backs continuing as usual.

GFS Op 0z - generally follows FAX but less emphasis on the westerlies at first, then a part of the Icelandic LP breaks off and moves to the N Sea 1000mb Mon 27th with cool NW-lies for a while. Pressure then rises from the SW, briefly, before LP returns from Iceland reaching Shetland 1005mb Sat 1st (with some input from the first tropical disturbance of the season). The seesaw continues, HP and LP alternating.

ECM to T +240 - agrees with GFS. Then to T+360 (Mon 3rd) has heat creeping back from the southeast, rather than southwest Fri 31st and then LP from France joining up with that near Iceland

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 25C by Fri 24th, then cooler at 20C with rain for a few days, back to 27C Fri 31st before cooling again with rain on Mon 3rd. Edinburgh, similar pattern but temps about 3-4 C lower.

GEFS - mean temp with moderately good ens backing close to norm until the end of the month; then a much wider spread of ens members than yesterday - mean maybe a little elevated. Small chance of rain in the south from Sun 26th (less than shown yesterday), rather more  certain in the north. 

Back to a 'traditional' British summer

AIFS ENS 00Z Sun 19 JUL 2026 - London

% of members with Mean Surface Level Pressure ≤ 1010

theweatheroutlook.com AIFS ENS data tables. Based on ECMWF data.

GFS Op 0z - By the 24th like FAX but more northwesterly than westerly. For the week to Sat 1st Britain lies between a revived HP 1030mb Atlantic and LP 1000mb Scandinavia - winds mostly cool-ish northerly but small differences in the position of HP/LP could make a big difference to temperatures. After the 1st, the HP wins out (1030mb Ireland on the 5th), and brings renewed warmth from  the southwest. Little sign of unsettled conditions with significant rain. 

The possibility of a tropical depression from the Gulf escaping onto the Atlantic, shown yesterday, has been discounted; it now looks as if this sytsem will flood the SE United States and go no further.

ECM to T+240 - like GFS though the final chart at this time includes a small shallow LP 1010mb Wed 29th running SE-wards across Ireland in the general northerly trend.

AIFS - London, maxima 25C this week, then  low 20s  (with occasional warmer days), some rain Sun 26th, Fri 31st, maybe a little after that. Edinburgh, maxima 20C dropping to 15C by Sat 1st, heavy rain on the 1st, bits and pieces in the previous week.

GEFS - mean temp near norm to Sat 1st, slightly warmer after that driven by a couple of hot outliers, the majority of ens members stay near norm. Small chances of rain from time to time in the south after Mon 27th, higher chance in the north but still not a lot.

its been showing up for some time,  after a chilly weekend the Azores high will push back in again.  Repeating pattern all season, and it winter these days as well of course!

That that is from 25th tu 31st July so that weekend cool down had been cancelled?  They were showing 14c in Yorkshire few days ago so now good for your bike trip there if warm and dry.

GFS Op 0z - after the weekend, HP revives from the southwest and forms a broad ridge across Britain including the North Sea all the way through to Thu 6th. LP nibbles at the north (995mb Faeroes Fri 31st) and south (1015mb France Sat 1st) but makes very little impression.

ECM to T +240 - the HP holds back; although returning from the southwest after the weekend it only reaches Ireland; enough to keep the weather for Britain dry but allowing LP near Faeroes (1000m Wed 29th) to spread cooler northerlies to all but the south coast.

AIFS - London, maxima around 25C with only a slight dip at this and next weekend; trivial amounts of rain at intervals from Sun 26th onwards. Edinburgh, maxima mostly in top teens C but with a couple of warmer spells to 23C now and Fri 31st; significant rain at weekends  25th/26th and 1st/2nd and a little in between. 

GEFS - mean temp close to norm through to Thu 6th (but op & control as hot outliers Sat 1st and Tue 4th respectively esp marked in south), reasonable chance of rain this weekend but unlikely after that in the south, the north and west likely to see some rain 1st and 2nd.

Continuing the dry and warm weather that we've become accustomed to, interrupted occasionally by just a very little rain