It's the dryness that is set to continue as far as the eye can see. Even the Summer of 1976 had some cool periods for many weeks after the heat had peaked but the drought situation stayed around until of course it finally broke in the last week of August. 

If this happen, there could be some quite spectacular coastal thundery showers given the very warm waters!

No horror show summer term washouts like in previous years.

Cooler? yes, more comfortable? yes, wet and dismal? Not at all. 

Hardly.it is just getting cooler but still above average for many.  Nothing like a bit of drama.🤣

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=06&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=&excop=gte&excv=30 

GEFS 06Z Wed 15 JUL 2026 - London

% of members with Max temperatures C ≥ 30

theweatheroutlook.com GEFS data tables

If I choose Reading with ≥ 30C, it shows a higher % at 6am than at 6pm on the 22nd and 24th, which seems unlikely.

It's for the six hour period rather than the specific hour. I generally use the 12pm setting to check the highest temps.

Makes sense, thanks for clarifying Brian.

FAX - Britain on the edge of this heat dome, HP 1029 mb south of Iceland intensifying and in combination with new LP 1002mb Sweden introducing light northerly winds (with a bit of frontal cloud for Scotland) over the weekend.

GFS Op 0z - The pattern on FAX stays in place for the week to Sat 25th - although winds are northerly, there's still a lot of warm air in the HP's circulation so not that much cooler. The HP then moves south and winds go round to the west for a time with LP 1005mb Faeroes Tue 28th before pressure rises again from the SW, though embedded LP 1015mb drifts north from France Fri 31st.

ECM to T +240 - similar to GFS though the HP is closer so northerlies weaker and weather likely warmer for n,ext week.

AIFS - London maxima 27C now, dipping to 22C before rising to 27C again Sat 25th, then 20C through to Fri 31st with significant rain (up to 40mm in that period). Edinburgh, again a rise to Sat 25th (but to 22C) followed by cooler at 16C with almost as much rain.

GEFS - mean temp not far from norm through to Fri 31st - a bit above now, a bit below Mon 20th, a bit above Fri 24th, then a spread of ens members with op run amongst the warmest - less variation in Scotland. Chance of rain from Sat 25th, heavier and in more ens members in the west.

Breakdown day is Sat 25th, in time for English school holidays

I think many schools are breaking up tomorrow (although ours has a pointless couple of days next week).

BBC 14-day forecast has above 25C here every day for the next fortnight and even at the end  with some rain around it's still high 20s.

Yes, we will lose our run of 30s next week, but 1976 was the same.  mid to high 20s for the rest of the summer with another burst of heat in August.   

The latest GFS has at least 27C every day (and in fact 28C every day but one) until the end of the month.

The lowest max this month has been 27.6C on the 1st. I wonder what the record for the highest "minimax" in a calendar month is? I can't believe any month has had every day reach 80ºF before now.

July 1976 had two days with a max of 23.1C. July 2018 lowest max was 24.4C. July 2006 was 23.9C. I can't think of any other contenders so it seems there has never even been a month with every day over 25C. Edit: August 1995 was also a contender but fell to 23.8C right near the end.

As is the regular 12z GFS. ICON and UKMO 12zs also keep the high pressure going, all looking far less unsettled, with it only looking like unsettled well into FI. Wonder what ECM 12z will show this evening?

Winds will turn northerly then north-west or westerly with temperatures around 21-22 C

Variable cloud amounts with some sunshine and only a slight shower risk.

After that Low Pressure looks set to move south which would bring cooler air and showery rain

 Would likely give a CET of 21c + for July. 

GFS Op 0z - keeps the FAX situation going, HP a little closer to Ireland, with plenty of warm air in its circulation, until Sat 25th when it pulls away to the southwest allowing a brisk cool northwesterly to develop as part of the circulation of a depression which reaches Scotland 1000mb Wed 29th. This depression moves to Norway by Sun 2nd, northerlies for the east coast but continental heat creeping back from the southwest.

ECM to T +240 - similar to GFS though the northwesterlies are less brisk , not as cool, and scarcely affect the southwest anyway because the depression driving them takes a more northerly route to mid-Norway as early as Mon 27th.

AIFS - London, maxima from 23C this weekend rising steadily to 35C Fri 31st, and dry throughout. Edinburgh, around 20C to Tue 28th before a dramatic rise to 32C Fri 31st (Yes, 32C! In Scotland!) Some rain Sat/Sun 25th/26th.

GEFS - mean temp close to norm well supported by ens members to Sun 2nd (though control run is a wild outlier Sat 1st, 14C above norm in south, 10C above in north), some chance of rain from Sat 25th especially in the Op run, and a highrer chance anyway in the north.

AIFS for heat lovers, GFS for those who'd like a break, rain still much needed in the south

I would imagine that there will be plenty of us here in the north of Edinburgh in particular, who will be looking forward to losing those winds from off the North Sea.

once that happens, we should eventually see stations closer to the coast such as at the botanic gardens being able to enjoy those 20+°C maximums which are already being recorded at Gogarbank and Swanston.

Then once the winds become more westerly, those locations which are seeing the coolest temperatures just now, will probably end up becoming the warmest places in Edinburgh.

Today is likely to be the last 30C day for a few days at least, I don't think anyone is really suggesting otherwise? Certainly wouldn't rule out a return to the heat though - eg the latest GFS ramps it back up to 36 briefly.

I think the Summer is starting to fade away now and we are unlikely to see really hot temperatures in the rest of the Summer. Another very front-loaded Summer by the looks of it.

Really? Not seeing much evidence of that on the models. The Azores high doesn't seem to be going anywhere and there's some serious heat over southern Europe. I'm sure we will see some cooler interludes but it won't take much for HP to nudge back in and send temperatures back up to 30+.