The Weather Outlook

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saxtemp
11 July 2026 17:12:37

It's more than that - at least on the TWO plots it has 35s on the 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 21st (no value but the isotherm is there), 22nd, 23rd and 24th... which is as far as it has got currently.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Ah, I was looking at the not-fully-updated section from the 10th of July I think.

Good god this latest run is horrific, even worse than the last, 37s everywhere.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2026 17:29:52

It's more than that - at least on the TWO plots it has 35s on the 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 21st (no value but the isotherm is there), 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th and 26th. So another 10, 16 in total.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That op run is catastrophic for France. Day after day of mid 40s in the heart of the country. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
11 July 2026 18:31:28
33.0C looks like the max, at Yeovilton.

BBC weather just now still talking about a change to cooler and wetter weather next weekend.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2026 19:07:58

Heatwave score update: after 35.2C in Derbyshire we’re up to 26.6 points. 

Reminder that the ones in our sights are July 2006 and August 2003, both with scores in the 40s. June/July 1976 remains way out in front for now. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Another 4 points today, if 33.0 [EDIT: 33.2 at Hurn] was the max. So 30.6 [EDIT: 30.8] points so far. 

Peak peril on Monday where it’s a possibility nowhere will hit 30C. We need somewhere to squeak home.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
fairweather
11 July 2026 19:10:07

33.0C looks like the max, at Yeovilton.

BBC weather just now still talking about a change to cooler and wetter weather next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Thank God for that!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
11 July 2026 19:31:18

Another 4 points today, if 33.0 was the max. So 30.6 points so far. 

Peak peril on Monday where it’s a possibility nowhere will hit 30C. We need somewhere to squeak home.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Looks like Hurn sneaked it with 33.2c


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
11 July 2026 19:36:20

Thank God for that!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Same here. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
11 July 2026 19:52:29

Same here. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

To my mind the lovely warm evenings more than make up for the slightly uncomfortable daytime heat. I love this weather.

As for the Monday peril, I think 30C should be safe. Latest UKV has a max of 31 and Aprege goes for 32. One of Bournemouth, Exeter, Yeovilton should make it.

UKV also has 35C on both Wed and Thur next week - although Arpege only has 32 on Wed.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
12 July 2026 08:41:45

UKV also has 35C on both Wed and Thur next week - although Arpege only has 32 on Wed.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That was on yesterday's 15Z but a big difference overnight - the 03Z has a band of rain on Wednesday holding temps back to about 31-32, while Arpege barely makes it to 30C.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 08:48:58
This morning's BBC weather suggesting more unsettled between Thursday and next Sunday, with temperatures still in the upper 20s, but heatwave conditions returning thereafter.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

bledur
12 July 2026 08:49:47
25c this time yesterday .

21c today, still forecast to hit 30 though

bledur
12 July 2026 08:53:01

This morning's BBC weather suggesting more unsettled between Thursday and next Sunday, with temperatures still in the upper 20s, but heatwave conditions returning thereafter.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

At odds with Met Office then . From yesterday

16th to 25th

A change in weather pattern is likely at the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. This means an increasing chance of showers by Thursday and into the following weekend. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, conditions will likely remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

26th to 9th August.

Changeable weather patterns are expected during this period. Showers or some longer spells of rain are likely at times, perhaps heavy and thundery. Some drier and brighter interludes are also possible, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible.

Matty H
12 July 2026 09:29:12

At odds with Met Office then . From yesterday

16th to 25th

A change in weather pattern is likely at the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. This means an increasing chance of showers by Thursday and into the following weekend. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, conditions will likely remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

26th to 9th August.

Changeable weather patterns are expected during this period. Showers or some longer spells of rain are likely at times, perhaps heavy and thundery. Some drier and brighter interludes are also possible, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

I only really look at these forecasts in the spring or summer as I couldn’t care less about the other season. They have been routinely wrong all spring and summer. Hopefully that continues to be the case and we remain dry and hot


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Hungry Tiger
12 July 2026 09:56:49

That was on yesterday's 15Z but a big difference overnight - the 03Z has a band of rain on Wednesday holding temps back to about 31-32, while Arpege barely makes it to 30C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I doubt we'll be clamouring for the duvets. 

🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 11:53:34
BBC sticking to its hot outlook, if not a touch higher than reckoned yesterday. For Winchester:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633858 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

scillydave
12 July 2026 12:12:16
This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Jiries
12 July 2026 13:07:49
Not related to this but since the heatwaves occur my bathtub seem to go soft when I get in and never felt this even last year so not sure what material of this bathtub that seem a bit soft and can feel it not solid. Maybe this prolong heat causing this?

Warm and sunny but windy.

Chidog
12 July 2026 13:14:24
30.6C at Kew Gardens so the streak goes on...
bledur
12 July 2026 13:26:39

I only really look at these forecasts in the spring or summer as I couldn’t care less about the other season. They have been routinely wrong all spring and summer. Hopefully that continues to be the case and we remain dry and hot

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Seem to be sticking to a breakdown with just a brief settled spell early next week.

A change in weather pattern is likely by the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, a short spell of more settled weather is likely at first, before more changeable conditions return later. This brings showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

Updated: 13:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 Jul 2026

Ally Pally Snowman
12 July 2026 13:32:44

30.6C at Kew Gardens so the streak goes on...

Originally Posted by: Chidog 

Yep 23rd overall and 8th in a row


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 13:34:48

This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Yes my thoughts too. Just back from town, where my daughter has finished her shift. The winds Force 4 to 5 perhaps gusting 6 are notable and there is visible dessication of many verges and fields. In just three days. There have also been several crop-related fires recently around here. Combine fires mostly which spread. There is a lot of gorse across the road which most of the year is flammable. Today, particularly so. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 13:36:25

Not related to this but since the heatwaves occur my bathtub seem to go soft when I get in and never felt this even last year so not sure what material of this bathtub that seem a bit soft and can feel it not solid. Maybe this prolong heat causing this?

Warm and sunny but windy.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

What is the brand of tub? Surely bathtubs are meant to take heat without softening.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 13:56:04

What is the brand of tub? 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Buttersoft?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Rob K
12 July 2026 15:30:32

This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

There was a big fire on the heath near me yesterday - but they have been a regular occurrence for as long as I can remember (and from before I was born when my parents first moved here 55 years ago). They always become more frequent during the school holidays too... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79y2ny8llno 

Looking at the models the big shift has been picked up by GFS 6Z too, with Wed and Thur going from 35C days to possibly not even reaching 30C. The 30C streak looks like ending by the weekend on this run.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
12 July 2026 15:42:30
The transition to a more mixed pattern has been very well signalled by the models IMO. However, the details of course remain very uncertain. Today's 12Z updates will be particularly interesting. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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