The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 08:48:58
This morning's BBC weather suggesting more unsettled between Thursday and next Sunday, with temperatures still in the upper 20s, but heatwave conditions returning thereafter.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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bledur
12 July 2026 08:49:47
25c this time yesterday .

21c today, still forecast to hit 30 though

bledur
12 July 2026 08:53:01

This morning's BBC weather suggesting more unsettled between Thursday and next Sunday, with temperatures still in the upper 20s, but heatwave conditions returning thereafter.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

At odds with Met Office then . From yesterday

16th to 25th

A change in weather pattern is likely at the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. This means an increasing chance of showers by Thursday and into the following weekend. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, conditions will likely remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

26th to 9th August.

Changeable weather patterns are expected during this period. Showers or some longer spells of rain are likely at times, perhaps heavy and thundery. Some drier and brighter interludes are also possible, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible.

Matty H
12 July 2026 09:29:12

At odds with Met Office then . From yesterday

16th to 25th

A change in weather pattern is likely at the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. This means an increasing chance of showers by Thursday and into the following weekend. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, conditions will likely remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

26th to 9th August.

Changeable weather patterns are expected during this period. Showers or some longer spells of rain are likely at times, perhaps heavy and thundery. Some drier and brighter interludes are also possible, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

I only really look at these forecasts in the spring or summer as I couldn’t care less about the other season. They have been routinely wrong all spring and summer. Hopefully that continues to be the case and we remain dry and hot


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Hungry Tiger
12 July 2026 09:56:49

That was on yesterday's 15Z but a big difference overnight - the 03Z has a band of rain on Wednesday holding temps back to about 31-32, while Arpege barely makes it to 30C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I doubt we'll be clamouring for the duvets. 

🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 11:53:34
BBC sticking to its hot outlook, if not a touch higher than reckoned yesterday. For Winchester:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633858 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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scillydave
12 July 2026 12:12:16
This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Jiries
12 July 2026 13:07:49
Not related to this but since the heatwaves occur my bathtub seem to go soft when I get in and never felt this even last year so not sure what material of this bathtub that seem a bit soft and can feel it not solid. Maybe this prolong heat causing this?

Warm and sunny but windy.

Chidog
12 July 2026 13:14:24
30.6C at Kew Gardens so the streak goes on...
bledur
12 July 2026 13:26:39

I only really look at these forecasts in the spring or summer as I couldn’t care less about the other season. They have been routinely wrong all spring and summer. Hopefully that continues to be the case and we remain dry and hot

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Seem to be sticking to a breakdown with just a brief settled spell early next week.

A change in weather pattern is likely by the start of this period, with the preceding dry and sunny weather breaking down into a more unsettled spell. Some heavy and thundery showers are likely, particularly across the south of the UK. Into the following week, a short spell of more settled weather is likely at first, before more changeable conditions return later. This brings showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

Updated: 13:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 Jul 2026

Ally Pally Snowman
12 July 2026 13:32:44

30.6C at Kew Gardens so the streak goes on...

Originally Posted by: Chidog 

Yep 23rd overall and 8th in a row


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 13:34:48

This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Yes my thoughts too. Just back from town, where my daughter has finished her shift. The winds Force 4 to 5 perhaps gusting 6 are notable and there is visible dessication of many verges and fields. In just three days. There have also been several crop-related fires recently around here. Combine fires mostly which spread. There is a lot of gorse across the road which most of the year is flammable. Today, particularly so. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 13:36:25

Not related to this but since the heatwaves occur my bathtub seem to go soft when I get in and never felt this even last year so not sure what material of this bathtub that seem a bit soft and can feel it not solid. Maybe this prolong heat causing this?

Warm and sunny but windy.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

What is the brand of tub? Surely bathtubs are meant to take heat without softening.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 13:56:04

What is the brand of tub? 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Buttersoft?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
12 July 2026 15:30:32

This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

There was a big fire on the heath near me yesterday - but they have been a regular occurrence for as long as I can remember (and from before I was born when my parents first moved here 55 years ago). They always become more frequent during the school holidays too... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79y2ny8llno 

Looking at the models the big shift has been picked up by GFS 6Z too, with Wed and Thur going from 35C days to possibly not even reaching 30C. The 30C streak looks like ending by the weekend on this run.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
12 July 2026 15:42:30
The transition to a more mixed pattern has been very well signalled by the models IMO. However, the details of course remain very uncertain. Today's 12Z updates will be particularly interesting. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Retron
12 July 2026 16:18:18
32.6 Hurn, so another day in the run of 32s!

That's 7 days in a row with 32 or higher, Monday to Sunday.


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
12 July 2026 16:38:50
30C officially recorded at Valentia observatory in Ireland - an incredible reading considering its location. The previous high in a record stretching back to 1860 was 29.8C in August 1955.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tierradelfuego
12 July 2026 17:45:40

This wind could really cause problems - I wouldn't want to be in the fire service right now. 

I have a feeling that wildfires may well make the headlines over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

As expected sadly... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8w67l642no 


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 18:05:36

32.6 Hurn, so another day in the run of 32s!

That's 7 days in a row with 32 or higher, Monday to Sunday.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes locally we had our 7th consecutive 30 today although today was only just. There has not been a summer like this for high temperatures, particularly if we think of the extended summer (May-September) with May being so extraordinary.

GEFS 12z rolling out is starting to echo what the BBC is saying- so from 18th, when it's all supposed to go cool, mean GEFS maxima in the south say 26,26,27,27,28,28,26.

No further yet- and just heatwave criteria in the S. Any other year we'd be heat-pleased or heat-cursing (depending on camp) but there is growing confidence of another week beyond next week of very warm, and maybe hot, weather.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 18:18:39
Just seen Helen Willetts on weather for the week ahead. Not sure now if the breakdown will be as decisive as thought. Position of HP in question but temperatures staying quite high for a while longer.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 18:30:12

Yes my thoughts too. Just back from town, where my daughter has finished her shift. The winds Force 4 to 5 perhaps gusting 6 are notable and there is visible dessication of many verges and fields. In just three days. There have also been several crop-related fires recently around here. Combine fires mostly which spread. There is a lot of gorse across the road which most of the year is flammable. Today, particularly so. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

And such fires do spread very quickly.

My memory goes back to 1948 (or maybe 1949) when we had gone to All Hallows* on the Thames estuary for a seaside jaunt, in the days when you went by excursion train instead of using up valuable petrol coupons. There was a sudden panic and the beach emptied with people walking rather quickly back to the station along the only track, which ran for several hundred yards through rough grassland. 

I was only small then, but I remember flames with yards of the track and as high as my parents and others walking there, and had developed, I think in less than half an hour.

*just across the Medway from Darren on Sheppey


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Jiries
12 July 2026 19:15:02

What is the brand of tub? Surely bathtubs are meant to take heat without softening.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Not sure as no name brand and was new when move in. Maybe fibreglass? Old days we had cast iron or metal bathtubs.  Very sunny today but very windy with gale force winds.

tierradelfuego
12 July 2026 20:02:34
31.7c the high today, our 7th 30th in a row and 16th for the year. Given our rural and hilltop nature, the previous best in my 15 years of recordings was 11.

After 12 days of July the average daily max has now hit 30.4c with our mean 1min at over 22c


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2026 20:50:57

Another 4 points today, if 33.0 [EDIT: 33.2 at Hurn] was the max. So 30.6 [EDIT: 30.8] points so far. 

Peak peril on Monday where it’s a possibility nowhere will hit 30C. We need somewhere to squeak home.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Another 3.6 points today from Huron’s 32.6C. So we’re are 34.4 points. Still some way off the 2006 and 2003 benchmarks, and less than half way to 1976.

Important we don’t miss 30C tomorrow.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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