GFS Op 0z - following from FAX, HP then changes its drift and moves to the Faeroes Wed 15th, and then further north again, so after early heat next week, that shift with some assistance from LP Belgium brings in cooler NE-lies Sat 18th. The LP then expands its influence, with shallow low pressure over Britain and something more active developing in Biscay 1000mb by Thu  23rd.

ECM to T +240 - similar evolution to GFS but the controlling HP is slower to move N-wards and thus hotter air hangs around after 15th.

AIFS - London, maxima reaching 33C Thu 9th, dropping slowly to 24C a week later; chance of rain from Mon 13th, increasing. Edinburgh, maxima also Thu 9th but 24C, dropping more quickly to 18-19C; rain now, Sat 11th and after Tue 14th

GEFS - in S England, mean maxima about 7C above norm Sat 11th, dropping to norm by Wed 22nd (though the op as an outlier does its best to keep the heat wave going), small chances of rain from Wed 15th; but for Scotland the peak is a day or two earlier and flatter,  and there is also more definite rain Sat 11th

Its come into line with ECM, dragging up more of a continental feed.  Its an insanely hot run.  Given how dry the ground will be by next week, real problems with wildfires 

Do we think we are on the cusp of the first ever 20c July CET? 

Must be a chance?

It's got to be a good shout so far from the output.

The only month I have had of 20c was July 2018 at exactly 20.0c, a daily max average of 26.5c - the most remarkable stat was that only 3 days were 30c or above.

The models have flipped cooler again just in time for the school hols as RobK feared!  Looks like the block will drain away to allow a cooler interlude, but perhaps the Azores will push in again later

GFS Op 0z - very little change in the above HP/LP pattern for a week. Then Sun 19th the HP slowly retrogresses to mid-Atlantic and winds turn to a cooler North easterly direction, then northerly by Wed 22nd as shallow LP runs from Scotland down to Germany, and the Atlantic looking more active.

ECM to T +240 - As GFS

AIFS - London peak of 32C tomorrow 9th, slowly decreasing to a less certain 25C by Fri 17th. Chances of rain  from Tue 14th still low, but higher than yesterday. Edinburgh, ca 24C for this week, dropping to 18C though a little warmer around Wed15th, rain Sat 11th, maybe a little a week later.

GEFS - mean declines from 6C above norm now to norm by Fri 24th, gradually in S, in the N there is a dip on the 11th en route (good ens agreement though at the end op is quite cool while control still warm), chance of a little rain from Fri 17th in the S, rather more in the N where there is also a bit on Sat 11th

EDIT: GFS 6Z Ops run looks wetter!

Let's just hope we get these 3 days of summer up here before the NE wind takes it away again!

I'd much rather it wasn't more unsettled then as I will be traveling down to Hawick in the Scottish Borders in the latter part of this month, so that is when I will be more than likely to be looking for some decent weather especially given that we haven't exactly had a lot of that up here during this summer so far.

I can see that possibly happening though, especially if we see high pressure heading north to become a northern blocking feature around Greenland/Iceland as hinted in a lot of the model outlook, this allowing low pressure to become parked right on top of the UK underneath that block.

There is a growing cluster on the GEFS going very hot again in a week’s time and a few wild outliers approaching 40C again. The 12Z op run was very much on the cold side in the latter stages (and quite an outlier on the 500mb plot!)

I've not looked at the runs in the cluster, but quite possibly a slow moving area of low pressure to the west / southwest of the UK. Could this amazing summer have one last trick up its sleeve?

We’re only a third of the way through it

Yes P6 does exactly that: it keeps the low pressure further out to the SW where it just spins around and pumps the heat up over the UK. It does eventually break through but HP quickly rebuilds afterwards.

True but it's rapidly reaching the stage where it will go down as one of the all time classics regardless of what happens later on. 

True, but this seems to be happening more or less every single year now and there has to a point in time eventually where we then need to look at that as being the actual norm for here, rather than just an all time classic.

Agreed

GFS Op 0z - that HP drifts on into Scandinavia and the troughs from France move north to become LP 1010mb SE England Fri 17th while new HP from the Atlantic approaches NW Scotland. As the new HP fades and the LP merges with  a larger LP over Scandinavia weak northerlies develop by Fri 24th. Still quite warm - there's a lot of warm air that is returning from the north and any really cold stuff stays near N Finland.

ECM to T + 240 - keeps the HP closer to NW Britain Fri 17th while the LP SE England doesn't amount to much - winds to turn to the north but still looking warm.

AIFS - London, max temps only dropping slowly from 33C now to top 20s by Fri 17th; chances of rain from Tue 14th and higher than shown previously by 17th. Edinburgh, maxima from 24C now to 18C Tue 14th, then warmer for  a day or two before cooling again; rain definitely Sun 11th and then trivial amounts in the following week.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp currently 6C above norm, dropping steadily to a couple of degrees above norm in a week's time (op notably cooler), chance of rain increased from Thu 16th onward. In the N, similar decline in temp but with additional dip Sat 11th, rain then and possibly after Mon 20th.

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