I still expect a pattern change around 10th -12th, remarkably, like last year.

GEM was scoffed at 2 weeks back for forecasting 33+ temps but look what happened.

No, you’re right. My WX was still on the 0z. All eyes on the 18z

GFS Op - and it doesn't stop there ... 1000mb C Ireland Wed 10th, 985mb SW Ireland Sat 13th (though this brings some warmer air from the south as it arrives). Only then does pressure rise, 1025mb England Thu 18th, this moving eastwards with a hint of a Spanish plume.

ECM - likewise a procession of LPs, though the last Fri/Sat 12th/13th runs further north and affects W Scotland

AIFS - London, maxima 16-18C to Tue 16th then warming slightly, rain at intervals to Sun 14th, heaviest this week. Edinburgh, maxima 14-15C  to Thu 18th, rain at intervals throughout.

GEFS - cooler and normal by turns to Wed 10th, then mean temp a degree or two above norm to Sat 20th with some hot outliers later. In the SE, rain looking showery (sharp daily peaks) for most of that time. more spread out in N & W, effectively continuous in NW Scotland.

More runs needed, i think!

From my pov that's great. We need rain, a lot of it still, and whatever happens it's odds on summer will be warmer than normal.

True, and it's nice to actually see something different for a change in terms of our weather.

It's just a shame that our winters can't likewise, be colder than average these days.

Back on topic though, there is still some model output which is hinting at a build of high pressure from the Azores in the second half of the month which would at least bring us something a bit warmer and drier if not an actual return to proper summer weather but that remains very speculative as that is still in the very extended range, so that remains something which I wouldn't really take all that seriously.

Looking at the GEFS the uncertainty starts one week out. On the 0Z set some runs go super hot from there while others stay cool and unsettled. The overall trend for the south at least is fro somewhat warmer and drier conditions to take hold by mid month but there is a lot of scatter. The op run goes very hot at the end....

Yeah, pretty changeable outlook.

Any improvement on AIFS ensembles looks still 10+ days away. We really need to start seeing improvements in the 168-216h range. Otherwise its a bit of a mirage. 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I’m ignoring the grouchy AIFS. GEFS still looks good for a warmup, the 12Z op run was a bit rubbish but the control looks good. It may take a bit longer than I’d hoped (at one stage it was looking like back to the low 20s by this coming weekend) but I think there’s another warm to hot spell coming in June. All roads seem to lead there eventually. 

Last June was one of the warmest on record 17c CET I think.

Model wise GFS and ECM 12z Ops absolute stinkers. But ironically AIFS 12z is a beauty after day 9. Safe to say the models are really struggling atm. None have a clue .

GFS Op 0z - the final LP from Fax moves SE-wards towards Denmark, NW-lies for a few days, then HP from the SW settles over Britain 1025mb Sat 13th. That HP slowly drifts eastwards and allows warmth to arrive from the south, possibly unsettled as there are small (thundery?) depressions in the flow.

ECM - brings the LP from Iceland closer to N Scotland while the rise of pressure (GFS Sat 13th) is centred over N France - so westerlies continue but settled weather in the south. ADDED after t+360 down load - that HP over France moves out to the Atlantic W of Ireland, ridge to Scotland improves the weather there but warmer and humid for the south, threatened by LP then coming up from France

AIFS - London, maxima 15-16C with rain until Sat 13th, then dry with temps rising to 28C by Fri 19th. Edinburgh, similar but temps 2 or 3 C lower.

GEFS - mean temp near norm  to Thu 21st except for a dip Wed 10th (but op and control are 7 or 8C  warmer than mean w/b Sat 13th). Intermittent rain very likely for the coming week (dry at first in N), less likely but in several runs for the following week (in the N  &W more persistent)

GFS op and control 0Z both go pretty warm. But it still looks like the 11th/12th is the moment where huge scatter begins. Plenty of cool and unsettled options.