The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
03 June 2026 19:00:20
The GEFS range always wobbles a bit in the lead up to a big warm spell. It will again, but look at the ENS for 12z- mean up to at least 10c 850s again and sustained. It's done this before- and there will be  some backwards statements before the pattern change again. 

I still expect a pattern change around 10th -12th, remarkably, like last year.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
03 June 2026 19:04:23
Might be my ageing eyesight, but the GEM option seems to have disappeared from the main model menu.

GEM was scoffed at 2 weeks back for forecasting 33+ temps but look what happened.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Chunky Pea
03 June 2026 19:05:18
Hints of high pressure building somewhere near Greenland at the end of the ECM run. Could help with the pushing away of those lows to the south in time... or maybe not. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

tierradelfuego
03 June 2026 19:24:00
GFS certainly shows less of a HP building in from the Azores, pretty much takes until after the 13th/14th weekend until the heat arrives.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Matty H
03 June 2026 19:26:11

It's definitely poor compared to its 0z run. I think a messy nw/se split is favoured now upto day 10. Then growing signs across all models and their ensembles of heat returning after that. 

SLP chart shows the poor Op.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=23&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

No, you’re right. My WX was still on the 0z. All eyes on the 18z

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2026 06:13:15
Not great again this morning AIFS and ECM still over 10 days from anything decent. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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