FAX - depressions still rolling in off the Atlantic with active fronts; 980mb S Scotland later to day, 993mb mid-Ireland Saturday, a couple more lined up in mid-Atlantic on Sunday. (Yesterday's MetO Deep Dive presented Saturday's LP in three scenarios, a general weak trough, a shallow closed circulation LP in the Channel and a vicious storm in W Scotland. Today's FAX track is closest to the last of these, but not as vicious)
GFS Op 0z - the LPs on Sunday (see FAX) unite and run NE-wards clear of Scotland as pressure rises over England 1025mb Thu 11th. This HP stays near Britain through to Fri 19th, first (Sat 13th) to the east bringing in warmth from the SE then (Wed 17th) to the NW with cooler N-lies.
ECM - has Saturday's LP as a weak trough, but then diverges quite strongly from GFS with no pressure rise; instead the united LP on Sun stalls and then moves SE-wards. On Thu 11th there is an LP 1000mb Ireland moving SE into England on Fri.
AIFS - London, maxima 17-19C to Wed 17th (a warmer couple of days Sat/Sun 13/14th) with some rain on most days. Edinburgh, much the same but maxima 14-16C and rain somewhat heavier.
GEFS - mean temp a little below norm Sat 6th rising to a little above by Thu 18th (quickly in S, more slowly in N) but a wide spread of ens members developing from Sat 13th. In the south, small amounts of rain firmly predicted this week, after than appearing in only a few ens members, in the north more persistent and heavier.
GFS Op is the preferred outcome for fine summer weather, by a country mile!
Edited by user
03 June 2026 06:41:25
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Reason: Not specified
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