Indeed, looks absolutely fantastic!!! Can’t wait and long overdue. Coincides with the first bit of annual leave I’ve had since Xmas as well. Winter as far away as ever. Love this time of the year

That would be great for the southern contingent 👍

Meanwhile parts of Scotland have snow to contend with tonight and tomorrow 😂

We are an interesting wee nation!

When I looked at this morning's GEFS London 00z chart I noticed how little rain was forecast in its entire outlook period. We seem to be back in the dry season here in the far SE. I wonder how long it will be before our next 6-month-long hosepipe ban starts. 

GFS Op 0z - this model dismisses the W-lies on Thu and has a broad ridge of HP from the SW. A threatening depression at the end of FAX is instead shown as an LP 970mb passing clear of NW Scotland Fri 10th, and by Mon 13th HP is back from the SW, settling over the N Sea 1035mb Wed 15th, and staying there through to Tue 21st. This tends to drift a little further north with gentle E-lies for S England. (Note - for contrast, a few days back, Britain was shown as under a persistent trough from the NW from the 10th)

ECM - is less keen on a HP scenario after Fri 10th, first a col Sat 11th, then weak troughs  drifting from the W and registering 995mb Wales Wed 15th, then 1005mb Dover Sat 18th, still affecting the SE a couple of days later.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 22C Wed 8th, falling back but rising to a second peak 15C Wed 15th (interrupted by one warm day Sat 11th), sunny and dry during this time. Then cooler (10C) with rain for the weekend of Sat 18th. Edinburgh, the first peak is 15C Tue 7th, then with a drop in temps comes rain before drier and warmer (13C) Tue 14th; wet and cooler (10C) from Fri 17th.

GEFS - In the S, from norm now, mean temp and ens agree on a long warm spell Tue 7th -Sun 12th (10C above norm), dropping back but still a degree or two above norm to Tue 21st. Perhaps a little rain Mon 13th, otherwise not much (also  a chance of more rain in the SW later). In the N, a similar pattern, but the second half of the warm spell is only 5C above norm and rain heavier and more likely esp in the W around the 13th.

It also looks like Wednesday may well see a new high temp date record with a few models showing 25c in the London area.

GFS Op 0z - keeps the plume a little longer with HP nosing in from the SW and any W-lies only for the far N. The LP on Fri 10th is there however and heads for Iceland, dragging a shallow trough across Britain for the weekend before pressure rises 1030mb Tue 14th with connecting ridge to Norway. The ridge shifts so as to connect to Faeroes instead Thu 16th, then to Greenland Sun 19th with E-lies through the south. From Tue 21st LP developing over Finland and connecting to lower pressure off Cornwall converts the mild E-lies to cold NE-lies.

ECM - also discounts the W-lies from FAX. From Fri 10th Britain is in something of a col between HPs Norway and mid Atlantic, sometimes with high pressure as part of the col (Sat 11th), sometimes LP makes inroads (Tue 14th) but always a tendency for SW-lies in Scotland and E-lies for the Channel (only available to Thu 16th at time of posting) ADDED 0910 the col continues to Tue 21st, with fairly high pressure between the two main centres, occasionally shifting its axis a little with minor effects on wind direction

AIFS - London, steady rise in maxima to 22C Wed 8th, dry and sunny; then dropping to around 13-15C through to Tue 21st with mixed weather, small amounts of rain predicted for Thu 16th and Mon 20th. Edinburgh, similar rise in maxima but only to 16C Wed 8th, dropping sharply to 8C before rising steadily to 14C on Sat 18th, Dry to the 8th and briefly dry again Wed 15th and Sat 18th. 

GEFS - In the S, the very mild  spell (10C above norm) lasts to Sat 11th with good ens agreement, then mean temp about 2C above norm to Wed 22nd moderately well supported by ens members (Op is a cold outlier on Sat 18th), dry until rain likely around Mon 13th and smaller amounts after that perhaps more in SW. In Scotland and N England, the opening mild spell only lasts to Wed 8th, though with a brief revival on Sat 11th, then mean temp closer to norm for the rest of the period. (the Op outlier is missing). Rain on 12th rather than 13th 

We are lucky just across the water in Essex. We have two massive resevoirs at Hanningfield and Abberton and rarely have hosepipe bans, not even last year.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-summary-reports/dry-weather-and-drought-in-england-9-january-to-22-january-2026 

GFS Op 0z - agrees with Fax, taking the storm on to Iceland but leaving a weak trough straggling across Britain on Sat 11th. This lasts to Wed 15th when a new LP from Greenland and HP E Europe initiate a period of S-lies, much as at present (though the LP is closer and thus possibly more unsettled in the west). This pattern lasts to Mon 20th when the HP fades, winds turn SW-ly and finally Thu 23rd an Atlantic trough moves in to cover Britain. Any resemblance between this and yesterday's GFS is minimal.

ECM - much like GFS though the Atlantic LP from Wed 15th stands further off and offers a chance of better weather in the west. (to Fri 17th)

AIFS - London, warm and sunny to Thu 9th (max 22C Wed), then mostly cloudy with  maxima 11-14C through to Tue 21st with occasional rain, heaviest Sun 19th and Tue 21st,  Edinburgh, also warm (16C) and sunny at first, then frequent rain with occasional sunny days (Tue 14th, Sat 18th), maxima rising to 13C Sat 18th otherwise mostly around 10C.

GEFS - up to 10C above norm to start with, drop to norm Fri 10th, secondary peak Sat 11th (+6C), then mean temp (reasonable agreement from ens members) back to norm from Mon 13th to Thu 23rd (control run a very warm outlier at the end). Some rain in most ens members from Sat 11th, not much in the SE but heavy for a few days around Sun 12th in N &W 

Thanks for the link - I'll keep an eye on the reports published there.

GFS Op 0z - disagrees with FAX over that deep depression, and brings it back in, albeit filling, for a second bite 990mb N Scotland Sun 12th. Then a quiet spell of weather with HP sort of trying to establish itself from the south but eventually LP deepens Mon 20th over Sweden and brings N-lies down the E coast while HP keeps the W coast fine. (The previous two days' charts bear little resemblance to this morning's output or indeed to each other)

ECM - also stops the N-ward progression of Friday's LP and swings it back across Scotland on Sun 12th. But then this model goes on to be more positive about a rise in pressure, a ridge from the SW accompanied by SW-lies from Thu 16th and finishing with the HP centred over S Norway 1030mb Sat 18th, extending to Britain. (to T + 240 = Sat 18th) ADDED 0905 This Hp moves steadily W-ward over Scotland and by  into the Atlantic keeping weather fine over the N but some brisk E-lies for S Britain

AIFS - London, drop from present warmth to maximum 10C Fri 10th, then steadily rising to 20C again from Sun 19th onwards. Heavy rain for one day only, Tue 14th, else dry. Edinburgh, likewise a drop to 10C Fri 10th, then rising by fits and starts to 15C from Sun 19th. Some rain on most days to Sat 18th, then drying up.

GEFS - mean and ens temps drop to below norm Fri 10th (1C below in S, 4C below in N) a dead cat bounce on the 11th, then a steady rebuild of mean moderately well supported by ens members to norm or a little above through to Thu 23rd. Some rain around in most places in one ens member or another, ranging from a high chance in the NW to intermittent in the SE.

GFS Op 0z - brings the above LP into N Scotland for the weekend, rather than keeping it out at sea. After Mon 13th the next LP is not as deep and stays further off so generating SW-lies to Fri 17th. Then a shallow trough moving with the SW-lies before pressure rises over the Atlantic with settled weather for W Britain and light N-lies down the E coast for a week. The HP moves in to cover Britain 1025mb Fri 24th.

ECM - like GFS with variations;  treats the first LP more like FAX, and omits the shallow trough on Fri 17th, just steady SW-lies. Pressure remains fairly high though a shallow depression drifts across the north on Tue 21st before HP returns in earnest 1025mb Fri 24th, converging with GFS at this point

AIFS - London, drop in maxima to 10C for this weekend, then progressively rising to 18C Tue 21st with occasional light rain, followed by another drop to 13C with heavy rain. Edinburgh, maxima like London rising but from 9C to 15C on 21st however here rain more frequent and at times heavy (drier after Sun 19th), and the final drop also present.

GEFS - cool to Tue 14th (in the S one warm day on Sat 11th) then mean temp and most ens members close to norm to Sat 25th, tendency for a little milder in the first week and a little cooler later. Rain most likely Sat 11th in the N, 13th/14th in the S, occasional later but more persistent in far NW, nothing very heavy.. 

GFS Op 0z - similar to FAX though the first LP gets into the Highlands on Sun 12th. The second LP stays further off and not as deep as it moves to Iceland, initiating a SW-ly flow (no doubt with an embedded trough or two) which fades as pressure rises from the south, 1030mb Ireland Sun 19th. This stays in the general area of Rockall to Sun 26th, pressure high over Scotland, E-lies through the Channel.

ECM - as GFS to start with but takes the HP Sun 19th further east, to the N Sea, with S-lies for Britain generally Mon 20th, before moving back west over Britain with the Channel  E-lies less marked.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 15-17C for the period Mon 13th to Wed 22nd before falling back, dry for the most part, chance of overnight frost Tue 14th, some trivial rain this weekend. Edinburgh, maxima also rising over the above period but only to 12-14C, rather more rain this weekend and also Thu16th, then dry.

GEFS, a mild pulse Sat 11th (weaker in the N), then mean temp quite well supported by ens members close to norm to Sun 26th (a little cooler at first, milder around Wed 15th). Many ens members showing rain at varying times, just a spot or two in the S, a little heavier in the N with the NE wet on Sat 11th, but the far NW as ever has both heavy and persistent rain

GFS Op - The second of the two LPs above combined with HP over France initiates a period of SW-lies, pepped up by a secondary 1000mb near NW Scotland Sat 18th. HP then spreads from the south into the N Sea with S/SE-lies looking warm, until Fri 24th when the HP moves to Norway and a shallow LP arrives from Biscay and travels north up the west coast before HP resumes over the N Sea Mon 27th.

ECM - like GFS to start with but then that secondary LP hangs around and is still identifiable in the N Sea 1005 mb Mon 20th with pressure still fairly low over Britain Any subsequent HP is non-existent as a series of small LPs travel SE-wards from Iceland, eventually coalescing as an area of slack LP in the N Sea Fri 24th. Only then does pressure start to rise and does so from the west Sun 26th.

AIFS - London, maxima rising from 14C now to 18C for the week from Wed 15th before dropping back to 10C Wed 22nd. Traces of rain now, and again around 22nd. Edinburgh, a quicker rise to a peak of 15C on Wed 15th, then slowly declining to 11-12C Fri 24th (and 5C on Sat 25th!?), Rain at frequent intervals, a brief dry spell Thu 23rd/Fri 24th.

GEFS - mean and most ens members not far from norm through to Mon 27th, if anything a little milder for a week from Wed 15th with a pulse of warmth on the 15th itself, cooler now and after 22nd. Rain in small amounts in various runs at various times, chance of something heavier Wed 22nd in S, Wed 15th in N. 

GFS Op 0z - the last of the three LPs on FAX amounts to very little, just brushing NW Scotland 1000mb before pressure rises over Britain with 1030mb predicted for the Baltic Fri 17th linking to the Azores HP and then transferring its centre to the Atlantic SW of Ireland 1030mb Wed 22nd. By Sun 26th this HP has moved to S Greenland and Britain lies under a trough between 985mb Faeroes and 1010mb Biscay with cold air threatening to work down from the north.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 19th, but instead of pressure remaining high over Britain, the link to the Azores fails to establish and is displaced by a series of LPs sliding SE-wards past Ireland. Thus by Wed 22nd the HP is centred 1030mb E of Faeroes with SE-lies for Britain. The last of the LPs  is placed SW of Britain Fri 24th 985mb but then changes direction, moving NE-wards to Shetland Mon 27th, pulling in cold N/NE-lies over the British Isles.

AIFS - London, maxima near 15C with some traces of rain to Tue 21st, then cooler and wetter to Fri 24th, after which temps recover but rain still present. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 10-12C throughout to Sun 26th (briefly milder Wed 15th, briefly cooler Tue 21st), frequent rain becoming heavier after Tue 21st. This model looks much less settled in the N for the coming week.

GEFS - mean temps close to norm to Tue 28th (a couple of mild days around Wed 15th) ens support good to Tue 21st and no more than the usual scatter after that. Small amounts of rain at any time (looking showery in the first week), driest in the far NE; rain slightly more likely in some ens members 21st-23rd. Small chances (7/33) of some Spring snow in the Highlands at the end of the month.

GFS Op 0z - as FAX above to start with; from Sat 18th pressure rises 1025mb over E Britain, moving slowly N-wards but ceding its influence to LP in SW Ireland 1000mb Wed 22nd. This LP moves E-wards and covers Britain 1005mb Fri 24th. This fills, but its partner on the Atlantic moves SW-wards to N Spain 1000mb Wed 29th with quite strong but mild SE-lies for Britain.

ECM (to Thu 23rd - can't hang around for the full update today) - like GFS but pressure slower to rise over the weekend, LP 995mb still near NW Scotland on Sat 18th. By way of compensation, the LP Wed 22nd stays in mid-Atlantic and Britain is covered by a broad ridge of HP from Iceland Thu 23rd. LATER EDIT The ridge persists, though for a time on Sun 26th it moves to the west with some rather cold N-lies for the east coast.

AIFS - London, maxima 14-16C through to Mon 27th, sunny periods and a little rain in the first week, fully sunny and dry in second week. Edinburgh, maxima 11-13C Thu 23rd, then 14-15C Some rain Wed 15th - Sat 18th, else mostly dry.

GFS - mean temp close to norm to Wed 29th, fairly well supported by ens members (marginally milder first week, marginally cooler second week). Highest chance of rain Sun 19th and Thu 23rd in England, but not in every run, in Scotland, chance of a little rain at any time.

That might be my fault as I've just reseeded a large portion of my front lawn after recently levelled it off. Happens every time.

On reseeding the possibility of rain recedes?  😁

GFS Op 0z - makes more of the LP on Fri 17th bringing a proper trough into N Scotland, The HP on Sat moves promptly to Iceland, later Greenland,  and by Mon 20th Britain is getting E-lies from a continental LP, augmented by LP developing in Biscay 990mb Thu 23rd, the two combining to produce cold NE-lies by Sun 26th. Hp then returns from Greenland via the W Atlantic to settle over Britain 1030mb Wed 29th.

ECM - like GFS at first but the HP hangs on strongly enough to keep the Biscayan LP out in the Atlantic, and also blocks any E-lies. It declines after Thu 23rd with LP over Scandinavia taking charge. By Sun 26th ECM converges with GFS with cold NE-lies, and then goes further with a cold pool from Scandinavia settling N England 995mb for a couple of days only slowly moving back to the NE. On Wed 29th any HP is shown as a weak ridge W of ireland.

AIFS - London, maxima 13-15C to Sun 26th then briefly warmer; traces of rain this week, then dry and sunny. Edinburgh, maxima briefly at 15C, dropping to about 10C to Fri 24th, then warmer again; some rain to Sat 18th then dry and sunny.

GEFS - mean temp a couple of days above norm, then close to norm to the end of the month with good ens agreement for the first week before a spread develops. Small amounts of rain at any time, chances of heavier rain Thu 23rd - Mon 27th, always more in the west.

GFS Op 0z - follows FAX; the HP then moves to NW Scotland 1040mb Tue 21st, and then on to S Greenland Fri 24th allowing N-lies to develop down the N Sea augmented by a small but deep LP 975mb in the flow Shetland Mon 27th. This slowly goes to the east and HP 1030mb returns to SE England Fri 1st with SW-lies for most.

ECM - basically like GFS but (1) the LP Fri 17th is slower to clear, still around early Sat 18th (2) the HP Fri 24th only retreats to the Atlantic, not as far as Greenland, so effect of N-lies is minimised. However that HP does stay just to the west of Ireland and only moves in across Britain, suppressing the N-lies, on Thu 30th and with more of a W-ly than GFS (No trace of an LP near Shetland on 27th)

AIFS - London, 17C maxima to Sun 19th, a double dip Tue 21st and Sat 25th to 10C or so, rising again to 15C Wed 29th; traces of rain from time to time, driest around Thu 23rd. Edinburgh, similar pattern to London but a couple of degrees cooler

GEFS - mean temps close to or a little below mean, good support from ens members to Tue 21st, then spread increases with a number of marked outliers both warm and cold from Sat 25th (fewer in NW). A little rain to start with, greater chance but not in every run from Thu 23rd (heavier in NW). 

I'm away until next Wednesday - might be able to squeeze in a few one-line comments but full reviews suspended until then, unless someone else steps in.