The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2026 08:03:04
Monday

Tomorrow will be cool and dry. Variable cloud and right spells in the morning. Turning coudy in the afternoon. By the evening, cloud will break a bit, revealing the odd right break. (sic)

From the BBC local forecast.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2026 08:20:11

Monday

Tomorrow will be cool and dry. Variable cloud and right spells in the morning. Turning coudy in the afternoon. By the evening, cloud will break a bit, revealing the odd right break. (sic)

From the BBC local forecast.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

The local forecaster had a heavy Saturday night?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
25 March 2026 08:40:44
I see that the muppets who built the new Met Office app haven't accounted for BST in their sunrise and sunset times 

#school boy error

EDIT: Looks like a bug related to the current location option. If I go to my other saved UK locations the sunrise/sunset times move forward an hour on Sunday


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Crepuscular Ray
04 April 2026 12:34:33
Met Office have issued Amber Wind warnings for North Wales and Northern England......Dave is further south, coming across the Central Belt 🤔
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

johncs2016
04 April 2026 12:49:39

Met Office have issued Amber Wind warnings for North Wales and Northern England......Dave is further south, coming across the Central Belt 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Here in Hawick, I am currently in that amber warning area along with the Dumfries and Galloway region and the rest of the Scottish Borders.

As far as Edinburgh is concerned though, it looks as though you are just outside that up there. Nevertheless, I’m glad that not up there just now as I would probably have a very noisy night ahead of me if I was.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

idj20
09 April 2026 23:02:02
This web site showing all daily global satellite images from different positions updated daily seems to have bitten the dust:  https://www.fvalk.com/day_image.htm

I've been looking into that web site and saving images daily for getting on 25 years and this is the very first time it has gone on the blink, has been like it for a week now and starting to think this may be another much loved feature lost to me.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2026 07:57:06
Signs of an El Nino later this year and it could be a strong one ......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cj94nzj33m0o 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

lanky
16 April 2026 10:14:06

Signs of an El Nino later this year and it could be a strong one ......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cj94nzj33m0o 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

We are still on a neutral ENSO state but as can be seen from Climate Reanalyzer SST's are already nearing record levels

If we do get a super El Nino at the back end of this year we will be in uncharted waters (literally) for ocean temperatures

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2 

UserPostedImage


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Gandalf The White
16 April 2026 12:01:56

We are still on a neutral ENSO state but as can be seen from Climate Reanalyzer SST's are already nearing record levels

If we do get a super El Nino at the back end of this year we will be in uncharted waters (literally) for ocean temperatures

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: lanky 

I have been following this for several weeks. It has the potential to be record-breaking and would drive up global temperatures to a new record, well above 1.5c, and have correspondingly severe impacts on weather patterns across the globe.

The amount of energy stored up in the oceans is, as the graph shows, remarkable.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Ally Pally Snowman
19 April 2026 10:18:50
I was thinking Spring seemed early this year. Plants and trees seem very far along for mid April. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cvg33dep3emo 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
scillydave
20 April 2026 05:25:59

I was thinking Spring seemed early this year. Plants and trees seem very far along for mid April. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cvg33dep3emo 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I saw leaves opening on both Horse Chesnut Trees and a Field Maples on the 10th March this year - it's astonishing how early it is. 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
21 April 2026 12:21:45

I saw leaves opening on both Horse Chesnut Trees and a Field Maples on the 10th March this year - it's astonishing how early it is. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Yes its the earliest I can remember.  It's been warm and sunny but not extreme warmth so seems a bit odd.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 May 2026 05:51:11
The Mirror at it again - and can one trust WX charts any more?

UK snow maps show 24-hour blizzard to batter parts of the UK in May freeze

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-snow-weather-maps-forecast-37127112 

New weather maps show snow could sweep across parts of the UK this weekend, with the wintry spell forecast to last up to 24 hours and stretch as far south as Leicester [for Sun 10th/Mon 11th]


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

doctormog
09 May 2026 06:45:09

The Mirror at it again - and can one trust WX charts any more?

UK snow maps show 24-hour blizzard to batter parts of the UK in May freeze

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-snow-weather-maps-forecast-37127112 

New weather maps show snow could sweep across parts of the UK this weekend, with the wintry spell forecast to last up to 24 hours and stretch as far south as Leicester [for Sun 10th/Mon 11th]

Originally Posted by: DEW 

“Forecasters say the snowfall will be most heavily concentrated across central and eastern Scotland” and that is followed by forecasts from the Met Office that have no mention of any snow. Even by normal tabloid low standards that’s impressive.


The Beast from the East
10 May 2026 14:33:55


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
24 May 2026 09:02:33
Understatement ahoy! From the MetO forecast for the SE:

Monday:

Largely bright and sunny throughout. Light and variable winds but breezy along the coast, Feeling hot inland but slightly cooler along the coast in the breeze. Maximum temperature 34 °C.

"Hot" is 6C above average (which is 19 or 20 at the end of May in the warmest parts of the SE, so 25 or 26.) Given that it's another 8C above that, smashing the 32.8 (or 33.4, depending) UK record, they could have at least added a "very", or even an "exceptionally"! 


Leysdown, north Kent
saxtemp
24 May 2026 12:49:20
BBC Weather now going for a max of 34c in London tuesday.
TheJudge
02 June 2026 21:46:42
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2026 06:53:16
Don't get too carried away by the headline; it's possible but 'likely' is an over-statement.

More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/clypk7j0qqdo 

The actual figures from Meto still say 55% chance of 'near average' albeit with the remaining 45% biased to 'hot'.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/api/assets/file/3-month-outlook-JJApdf?prefix=assets&prefix=assets 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
03 June 2026 06:58:00
The Met Office seasonal update is interesting. As I understand it, they've decided to override the seasonal model data, which generally points towards a drier than average season. The reason is that past experience shows the seasonal models over-forecast pressure in western Europe during a transition to El Niño. 

With that said, I do wonder how large the dataset is on which that assumption is based. It will be interesting to see how the summer plays out. The current three month precipitation anomaly forecast from the ECMWF system is shown below.

UserPostedImage

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/ 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Matty H
03 June 2026 07:56:45
For anyone that’s not seen it, the Met Office Deep Dive came out yesterday and covers the summer predictions. As always, it’s a brilliant watch, and if you’re a heat lover like myself, you’ll enjoy it even more

?si=jL3pudS6ml4vBUB-


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Charmhills
03 June 2026 08:06:58
It is Matty.

I highly recommend.👍


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

The Beast from the East
08 June 2026 01:41:41


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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