Hope it misses us completely

I am fed up of this wetness.  

GFS Op; has no truck with the above N-lies and keeps the SW-ly/W-ly theme going to Thu 5th with occasional interruptions (i.e. ridge of HP Mon 23rd, local troughs dipping well south Fri 27th and Sun 1st)

ECM; follows GFS rather than FAX, but later on brings depressions on a more S-ly track (975mb Wed 25th, N England; 980mb Sat 28th Channel) then relents and puts in a large area of HP 1035mb Tue 3rd.

AIFS; London, maxima 3C now, 10-11C for a week from Fri 20th, then dropping off slowly, best chance of dry weather around Sun 22nd and Mon 2nd, chances of frost in the latter period. Edinburgh, similar temp trend though a couple of degrees lower, but a lot of rain from Fri 20th onwards.

GEFS; in the S,  rain Thu 19th  esp heavy in SW (chance of snow almost gone), then mild and dry from Sat 21st for a few days before temp drops back to norm (quite good ens agreement though op stays mild and control goes cold)and rain starts up again from Wed 25th. In the N, temp profile similar but no rain for the 19th, instead a more general wet period from Sat 21st for a week, drying up in most ens members after that (heavier rain and more persistent in W, and not quite as mild)

Yes not sure why anyone would be still chasing this possible marginal snow event regardless of where they are as they basically always end up just being rain in the end. I'm more interested in the longer term outlook and it looks like March might begin with a flat zonal pattern.

South misses out. That's it. More rain AGAIN. Winter is over. Meanwhile USA are going back into the freezer next week.

The near term snow/sleet risk has shifted northwards for Wednesday into Thursday, with somewhere around the Midlands/Wales to Northern England looking likely to have some wintry precip falling at least - haven't really looked at it but assume it's a result of the LP being a touch stronger, which usually adjusts the track north? 

For anyone vaguely interested, the ECMWF strat winds forecast continues to change, with them now showing a strong chance of average or a touch above zonal winds for the first week of March. Noteworthy for how they've changed from a possible SSW to a prolonged spell of weak zonal winds to them showing fairly typical strengths, rather than them showing anything unusual for the time of year. 

All in all a fairly soggy and bland end to the winter looks likely, which is nice 😶

Yes we see a reoccurring pattern! Roll on spring I say. LIke many I am fed up with the rain if you saw my post in moaning thread. At least in February 2019 we had warm sunshine to enjoy.

Whilst I see entirely why you would say that - it was exactly the same here last Sunday and from predicted sleety rain - we had 4 hours of heavy and fluffy snow and 2”. And I’m at 28m ASL. So you never know. It seems to me the keys for getting snow from a marginal event are - heaviness of the precipitation and lack of wind. We had both - but the 4 hours of heavy snow was preceded by 3 hours of sleety rain  and then sleety snow. Only when the heavy precip started did the temperature drop and the snow began in earnest ! Sounds like there too much wind in the SW right now . 

I would agree with this. Most of our best falls here have been short lived 24hr marginal events, usually occurring at the end of the season. We've also had plenty of cold air influenced, longer term snow but the really interesting high coverage stuff is always knife edge, hence i'm usually on the lookout for much messier charts. 2010 skewed the optics for me and had me chasing the wrong type of synoptics, which lets face it are once in a generation events now, hence the constant disappointment in this particular forum.

Not much marginal messiness in the 0Z GFS, but signs of drier conditions and seasonal warmth which is welcome. 

GFS Op 0z - same general pattern as FAX for the rest of February, though pressure over France is higher which may suppress frontal activity. Then from Sun 1st for a couple of days the LP over Scandinavia stretches W-wards and brings Arctic air to Britain before W-lies resume Thu 5th.

ECM - Also starts off with a westerly pattern, though the alternating ridges and troughs are more amplified than in GFS. Then on Sat 28th a large area of LP with cold air entrained settles over Britain (N England, 970mb) and sticks around, slowly filling and becoming less cold to Tue 3rd. Final chart Thu5th has Britain in a col between shallow LPs Azores and SW Russia.

ECM and GFS both tend to present a more or less unsettled W-ly pattern for the rest of February, followed by a cold spell for the first few days of March, but AIFS below doesn't buy the cold spell.

AIFS - London, maxima back up to 10-12C from Sat 21st,  only slightly cooler into March, after today's rain and E-lies, bits and pieces at various times and winds mostly SW-ly. Edinburgh, maxima recover to 9-11C, no rain now but plenty from Fri 20th onwards, also Mainly SW-ly wind. 

GEFS - in the S, a lot of rain in the near future away from E Anglia, then dry and mild to Fri 27th, when mean temp drops back to norm and rain shown in most ens members to Fri 6th (esp likely around Sun 1st). Control is a massive warm outlier at the start of March - contrast above. In the N, the mild spell is shorter (only to 25th) and less mild, rain starts on Sat 21st and never really goes away, very heavy at times in the NW, not much for the NE. Snow row figures around 50% at end of Feb for Inverness, else forget it!

Even by its standards GFS has had a terrible winter. All the models have tbf. 

They have certainly struggled big time ever since the festive season IMHO, Ally. They seemed to do OK during the unsettled spell of the first two-thirds of December, but ever since the colder spell over Christmas and New Year, they have been all over the place wrt anything more than 5-6 days ahead.

Even the angle of attack. A straight west to east that was never going to yield snow in the way GFS projected for run after run. What we’ve ended up with is more of a generally considered better slider scenario that still isn’t producing much in the way of widespread snow due to temps 

I believe this is down to increased entropy in global weather, or at least the weather in our hemisphere since the new year. There has been no real 'pattern' for the models to follow so their predictability has been massively reduced to mere days, even hours. 

The models are capable of performing very well, and we all know that, however their performance is entirely dependant on the quality of the data that is fed in and if thats increasingly entropic then you're better off just casting a glance at your barometer or out the window. 

GFS Op 0z - as above, then a brief rise of pressure before LPs start up again with more of a W/NW emphasis (Scotland 985mb  Fri 27th and 980mb Mon 2nd) . Then the last of these splits off a trough towards the SW 975mb Wed 4th before it's back to LP running N of Scotland again from Fri 6th with W-lies.

ECM - manages the rise of pressure for a bit longer with definite SW-lies, the over-compensates by dropping a trough S-wards 985mb E Anglia Fri 27th. Back to LPs'to the north with W-lies before a broad ridge of HP develops from Tue 3rd persisting to Fri 6th (The trough to the SW on Wed 4th is there but blink and you've missed it)

AIFS - London, temps rising to 10-12C declining a little after Sat 28th, spits of rain from time to time, some sunshine from Sun 1st, wind mainly SW-ly. Edinburgh, temp trend like Lonodn but a drgere or two lower, a lot of rain in the coming week perhaps drier later, winds more W-ly. 

GEFS - a couple of very mild spells to end the month,  good ens agreement; mean temp back to norm for the first week of March;  bits and pieces of rain at any time, most likely around Sun 1st but always more persistent along the W coast.

GFS Op - copies the W-ly influence as above, but from Fri 27th the pattern breaks up,  LP close to W Scotland Sun 1st, a fleeting ridge of HP Wed 4th, and the succeeding LP 990mb Sun 8th Shetland bringing N-lies behind it.

ECM - same principle as GFS but different timings; trough near W Scotland Fri 27th, ridge of HP Sun 1st, LP Shetland later Mon 2nd, agrees on the ridge Wed 4th, but the succeeding LP much weaker and scarcely disturbs the W-lies.

Difficult to predict exact timings in a westerly pattern but the trend is clear.

AIFS - London, maxima 10-11C to Sun 1st with minimal rain, then dropping steadily to 4C Mon 6th  but dry at that stage, wind SW-ly going round NE-ly as it gets colder.  Edinburgh, same temp and wind profile but a lot more rain next midweek. The NE-lies in this model not seen in GFS/ECM.

GEFS - mild or very mild to Fri 27th, then mean temp near norm, however  then less agreement for ens members. Some rain from one ens member or another at any time, but quite persistent and heavy in the west, not much in the east. Perhaps a little snow for the highlands.

Watching with interest…for drug nothing else ! 

More jam tomorrow, I suspect - the ECM-46, for example, just shows mild all the way to the end of March.

And talking of mild, this is pretty unusual for the time of year, 15C and full sunshine in the MetO raw forecast for Wednesday here! Typically you would expect sunny days to be cold in winter, but it's a fitting end to the 10-day winter. The numbers as shown for the week ahead would give a mean of 11.4, a mere 5.2C above the 91-20 average... 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/meto.jpg 

GFS Op 00z - the pattern as in FAX continues to Mon 2nd when another trough dips S-wards, W of Ireland,  switching winds to the south briefly before back to the W/SW theme as before. (A notably deep LP 940mb W of Iceland Sun 8th but no more than SW-lies on its fringe for Britain)

ECM - same general pattern as GFS but introduces some extra amplitude ; higher pressure Tue 24th, LP closer to Scotland with NW-lies Sat 28th, the trough from Mon 2nd developing rather than filling and getting to the N Sea Fri 6th with N-lies behind (not that this stops the Iceland LP Sun 8th from deepening there too)

AIFS - London maxima now 12C slowly declining to 9C Fri 6th, some cold nights, occasional small amounts of rain, winds S/SW to Tue 3rd then N-ly.  Edinburgh, maxima around 10C, slightly above in week 1, slightly below in week 2 with quite a lot of rain in week 1, drier later again with cold nights. Winds stay W/SW-ly.

GEFS - mild  (very mild in S) to Fri 27th then the mean near norm (though op remains a mild outlier). Some rain in some ens members from the 27th in the east, more continuous and in more ens members in both NW and SW

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/44/7833/102_582UKxcp3.GIF 

And at the same time decreasing the chance of milder conditions here. It was forecast and modelled to be 10°C here today a few days ago. The reality was a hug this afternoon if 6.9°C. We haven’t seen double figures here for nearly 10 weeks. Tomorrow may change that, but I have almost forgotten what “not cold” feels like.

The ensemble data suggest that a milder spell in the coming week looks likely with the above chart being a bit out of line with the consensus.