It's possible that may happen in the last few days of February, however next week looks more likely to be cooler than average to me at least for Northern areas. Latest GFS showing quite a cool and unsettled pattern next week with potential for quite a bit of snow for higher ground in the North at least.

Just a shame it's a minority in its ensembles.

GFS - those LPs on the Atlantic don't come to much; for the next ten days the pattern is of weak troughs pushing in from the Atlantic, near the Channel at first, later over N England with E-lies for most of Britain, not linked to anything really cold. Brief ridge of HP from the S Sat 28th. Quite a contrast with ECM.

ECM - has a much deeper LP Fri 20th, reaching the N Sea 985mb with strong N-lies (GFS at this stage has a weak trough along the Channel). The N-lies persist to Sun 22nd, then after a bit of uncertainty, HP establishes in the southern N Sea Tue 24th, springlike for England, mild SW-lies for Scotland.

AIFS - London, maxima about 5C with milder days either side of  (i) Mon 16th (ii), more so Mon 23rd, rain from time to time, wind direction variable. Edinburgh, same sort of temp pattern but 3C rather than 5C, rain at start of the milder periods

GEFS - cold plunge this weekend then mean and ens back to norm Mon 16th; then cooler (esp in  N), warmer , cooler but still near norm to Sat 21st with rain during this period for the S (very little in NE). For the week following ens members predict a range of temps evenly spread between 10C above and 10C below from norm so prediction valueless; but some indication of drier conditions. Little indication of snow after this weekend apart from the Highlands.

Where are these Spring days that people speak of 🤔

"Huge band of snow over all of UK" this weekend, Met Office say, according to Yahoo News in true Daily Express mode. Yahoo News is usually pretty good but closer reading shows that isn't what they are saying and unsurprisingly London and the S.E are not included in the yellow warnings.

Operational looks well towards the cold end of the ensembles to me. Most are considerably less cold at present.

Agree, it looked interesting. Less so 12z...

The output fatigue in here is tangible, understandably. 

I do hope so as seeing the 12z ensembles and hopefully more drier and to see first 15C of the year too.   

After another Day and models are continuing to show signs of spring warm up 🙂

There's been an increasing signal for something wintry around the 19th for a couple of days now - it's nice to see it coming into the semi reliable. It still looks marginal to me though.

GFS Op - LP starts by moving across to the N Sea with brief following N-lies on Tues; then a depression from the SW moving up the Channel on Thu again with N-lies behind. Pressure rise following for a fine Sat 21st before the weather for the following week drops into a conventional pattern with LPs close to/over Scotland (notably 970mb Fri 28th) and HP over France, and W-lies predominating. The pattern breaks on Sun 1st with LP 980mb on a S-ly track along the Channel.

ECM - similar to GFS; slight exceptions are that for a few days after Sat 21st winds are milder SW-lies that W-lies; and the final LP is more of a trough extending from the N than LP in it own right.

AIFS - London, maxima around 5C for the first week (to Sat 21st) then around 10C. Rain Sun 15th then bits and pieces after Sat 21st (differs from BBC output last night which showed rain every day on and after Sun 15th) . Edinburgh, similar pattern; but less rain at first more in second week. Also slight cooling after Thu 26th.

GEFS -  temps back to norm though then cooler (more notable in NE) for a few days. Mean temp with most ens members slightly above norm from Mon 23rd, though a few very cold outliers to start with, Rain Sun 15th (not much in N & E) then in most ens members (not the op) for a week from Wed 18th slowly drying up (more persistent in NW). 

Yes - but for the last couple of days - it has picked this colder end for the higher resolution Op’ there must be a reason for this, although the other models don't really agree - with damp squib versions. 

So whatever happens tomorrow and midweek could be the last hurrah for cold weather fans

A pathetic conclusion to another failed winter. 

And not a moment too soon. Thankfully signals are still there in this morning's runs, I almost felt the Spring-like warmth on my face. But of course we'd probably end up with the same old crud. 

Nailed on 🤪

Random cherry picking aside it looks like a decent shot at some mild or very mild weather as we head into the final third of the month. The mild signal has been pretty consistent so would assume there's a reasonable chance of that happening (typically) - if it does verify hopefully it'll dry up somewhat too. 

Before then, some wintry stuff for some tomorrow (rain/sleet then less cold rain IMBY) and a signal for another chance at some transient snow for somewhere in the southern half of the UK around mid next week. (There's another window for snow showers in Scotland Monday PM through Tuesday too as cold air digs back south). 

But how many times this winter have we seen snowy charts like that? And how many have even come anywhere near coming to fruition?

Not much let up here....