I was thinking more the UKHD the zoomed in version of the  UKMO model on meteociel that is conservative, it always seems miserable with snow forecasts but not today. 

UKV always shows different amounts to UKHD. I agree UKV is sometimes dodgy. I think someone said it overestimates frontal snowfall (the depths are big for Sunday!) but other precip shows as more fragmented.  Basically prone to show huge totals or nothing. 

Understood, but is that still the case since the upgrade? 

On your second point, the upgrade should mitigate this, as it shows frontal precipitation to be more fragmented and lighter than in the previous version. However, I'm not seeing that reflected in the snow amounts yet.

I miss that - had to travel to Wengen to get my fix!!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5/5562/gensfr_26_9_204vkn7.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/98/12658/animiid3.gif 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&time=318&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

That's the royal "we", of course, as some of us would like to see some snow no matter the time of year (and, of course, unlike us cold-lovers in winter, heat-hounds are guaranteed a return every summer). 

This morning's models paint a mixed picture regarding Sunday's snow, which is the most likely way to see a flake or two down here. The MetO raw now has a classic snow->sleet->rain progression, having updated since first thing this morning, with 3 or 4C temperatures - and surprisingly high dewpoints still. The ICON continues to show the "bunching up" effect as the front moves eastwards, maintaining snow widely across the country. Yet other models, such as the GFS op, have backed off snow down here, instead keeping it as rain throughout. There also seems to be an element of evaporative cooling at play too, with models showing heavier precip having a greater chance of keeping it as snow. All very knife-edge and I'm not expecting anything - but it'd be nice to see some snow if it happens.

Further ahead I note the GEFS continues its winter-long tease of having roughly 1/3 of the members showing -10s for London in the second part of the run. I suspect the outcome there will be the same as it has been all winter too!

Except even just looking at the AI output we are in chocolate teapot territory by then: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ngc&var=1&time=324&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 

Before then it looks on the cool side and quite unsettled (still).

On a different note, more charts/weather like this  please!

I keep in mind though that the majority of cold-lovers only really enjoy cold from the comfort of a warm house that holds in summer like temps. Cold for the sake of cold, and without any pleasingly frosty or snowy benefits (story of this winter) can feck right off in my opinion. Same with excessive heat in summer. Pleasing warmth ceases to be pleasing beyond 20c, and even less when humidity is high. 

What I am amazed by by that chart Ally posted above, is the amount of cold air locked up in the near Arctic, with a fair amount of it continuing to be lodged in over eastern Europe & Scandinavia. Looks like a chart from the early 1980s.  

FAX - LP 985mb moving from Cornwall to C Mediterranean by Sat with a half-hearted N-ly moving in behind over Britain. LP 970mb mid-Atlantic pushing a front into the cold air on Sun 15th, the LP itself 986mb Irish Sea on Mon 16th and N-lies (but with a long sea track) to follow. 

GFS has more of a ridge of HP over Britain for Sat, then LP Mon 16th is further north, and the following N-lies only get as far as Scotland. Meanwhile LP menaces the SW yet again 995mb Wed 18th before a few days of travelling ridges (Thu 19th, Sun 22nd) and depressions (Fri 20th) from the west. The last ridge topples to lie over SE Britain with strong SW-lies for the NW by Sun 29th.

ECM similar to GFS  to Wed 18th (though the current LP moves to the W Mediterranean and looks stormy there from Sat) then a confused pattern from Fri 20th with a broad area between HP mid-Atlantic and LP Europe giving Britain a random assortment of local HP and LP centres. The HP creeps closer to Britain and is 1030mb to the SW Fri 27th.

AIFS - London, maxima 5-7C to Sun 22nd then milder, not specially cold this weekend; dry at the weekends small amounts of rain at other times, winds eventually settling W-ly. Edinburgh, colder (2-3C0 to start with then ca 5C to 22nd afterwards milder, dry Tue 17th - Sat 21st, small amounts of rain at other times but possibly snow at first.

GEFS - in the S, cold just for the weekend (5-6C below norm), then near norm with moderately good ens agreement to Sun 22nd, mean temp the continues near norm but wide spread of ens members develops. Mainly dry to Mon 16th (small amounts of pptn near the E coast likely to be snow) then a week's rain before becoming drier. In the N, the dip in temps is more spread out and returns for a few days after Mon 16th before mean back to norm but with ens spread as noted for the S. Small amounts of snow around this weekend, then more likely as rain from Wed 18th, heavy and persisting in the west, drying up later in the E.

AIFS ensembles showing a warm up. It's not the only model to have shown this type of solution.  I think there's a good chance of a very mild end to February.  CET looking likely in the 7s which is very mild.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

You can be sure if it’s a warm up it will be right !! Even though it’s been wrong for cold the whole winter 😀

If a sunny high, we are getting into that time of year where the sun's heat on the skin can really be felt, even if the air temps remain low. It's shallow warmth for sure, but I think many would take it at this stage.  

managed to see it before it disappears.  This is what we should have had on Christmas Day!

Life is all about the "if onlys". 

That's not true of the ECM or the ECM AI ensembles.  There are only 3 on each that reach or exceed 10c @850.

Whereas there are 7 or 8 on each of those models that reach -10 or below @850 so statistically speaking below is favoured more than above.

Reality may have a chat with statistics about that though!

10C at 850 this time of year would be quite unusual too, as 850s and SSTs are much colder in February than they are in say December. Not saying it's impossible, but to get August-level 850s in February is quite an ask. 

That said, -10 seems just as hard to come by these days!

For example, at the time of writing the GFS op run is out until the 23rd of February with some -10°C t850s over or around the U.K. on that date.