Yes even by modern UK standards the way we've avoided any cold has been Houdini esque. 

Overall more widely it looks like remaining on the colder side of averages after the next few days and continues to be unsettled, possibly very unsettled at times.

GFS Op - brings the new LP on Wed 11th in further N, positioned over Scotland 970mb Thu 12th and beginning to draw in cold air from Scandinavia which spreads down to Cornwall with N-ly gales by Fri 13th. A ridge of HP for the weekend, then a Greenland LP runs down to N Scotland 965mb Mon 16th and sticks around for the week with cold (but not deep cold) NW-ly polar maritime for the week following. A new ridge of HP for the weekend again, followed by strong S-lies as LP nears Ireland Mon 23rd. [Headline - winter 2026 lasts 2 days - at least away from N Scotland]

ECM - agrees with GFS though the cold plunge on Fri 13th is concentrated on the east coast (never gets to Cornwall). After the ridge of HP at the weekend, the next LP comes in from the W not NW , draws in some cold air for the N and looks like setting up a trough to the SW again (this to T+240, Tue 17th - I have to go and catch a train and ECM has only downloaded to 17th)

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C but with a dip to 3C just for next weekend, rain on most days, winds in the S except N-lies for the weekend. Edinburgh, similar but with lower maxima 6-7C , and a more gradual decrease to the colder weekend, frequent rain, winds E-ly for the week, N-ly for the weekend, then S-ly and finally W-ly.

GEFS - in the S, good agreement on temp above norm to Fri 13th and a two-day dip to 7C below norm; for the week following, mean near norm with a balance of ens members on either side. Never really dry but rain most likely around Thu 12th & Tue 17th, drier in the E with some chance of light snow at times. In the N, similar though mean only recovers to a degree or two below norm in the second week; as the norm is lower than in the S, a reasonable chance that pptn will fall as snow even at lowland stations.

The key was the path of the incoming low. Yesterday’s 12z it was modelled to run along the south coast and now it is modelled to spin up to Scotland - which is quite a divergence. This is the feature that destroys the chance of more prolonged cold and snow for the south - as per the ECM 12z yesterday - and sure enough - all the signs were there of Pete Tong - culminating with a bbc early snow warning!! 

Frost and brightness  will be welcome but it’s another modelled snow event that proved to be a mirage in the desert of wintry winters.  

The BBC’s comments mentioned the chance of snow later next week, which is what the models show in some areas. I don’t think, unless I missed it, that the forecasts mentioned widespread or prolonged wintry conditions. The written regional forecast this morning mentions the chance of snow by Wednesday, although looking at the models I think Thursday or Friday may be more likely.

For example the snow falling ensemble percentage charts from the GEFS 00z:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-144.png?0

Here's hoping March bring a change of fortunes - in terms of warmer and drier conditions, but given our climate I wouldn't bet too much on that.

As long the breakdown are now counting down to get out is this by 12th to 13th.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=318&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=0&time=354&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

GFS Op  - much as FAX, but the LP takes a course across N England and by Fri 13th is 975mb Denmark and pulling down N-lies over Britain, these barely lasting 24  hours before being dispelled by a resurgence of the Atlantic. Ridge of HP Sun 15th, LP passing Shetland 980mb Wed 18th with NW-lies (not as cold as shown previously)  and making way for a large HP cell 1035mb Cornwall Sat 21st (yes, HP and Cornwall in the same sentence!!). This develops into a 'toppler' with SW-lies affecting Scotland by Tue 24th.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 18th, but on that day the LP near Shetland has a secondary 980mb running E-wards across England which keeps HP well to the south and by Sat 21st is over S France with SW/W-lies for Britain as a whole to Mon 23rd.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 9C dropping to 3C over the weekend before quickly recovering (for a time, anyway). Rain other than at the weekend, winds switching between S-ly and N-ly. Edinburgh, ca 9C now, sliding steadily to 3C from Thu 12th for a week and staying there  before recovering; rain until Thu 12th and again around Thu 19th.

GEFS - Mild now, sharp dip to cold 14th-15th and equally sharp recovery, after which mean near norm but less well supported by ens members. Rain mostly for a few days either side of Wed 11th and Mon 16th. In the S, chance of snow as the cold snap sets in, fairly certain in the N. 

Even the chance of a cold snap being gradually eroded in the output. To keep sane I have to remind myself that the modelled output is just that and not the actual weather conditions reported. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=51243&var=201&run=0&date=2026-02-08&model=ecm&member=ENS&bw=1 

What's the bets that the reach for some pleasant spring warmth will always be 7 to 10 days away over the next few months? Sick to death of this current spell now. Zero frost or snow, yet, no actual warmth to help with the heating bills a little. I know it is only Feb, but Feb normally brings a few days with temps  >10c, which can make a difference to the feel of things. 

The next 5 days are all forecast to peak above 10c here 

Tend to find that warmth in the further output modelling is far more reliable on getting into reality, fortunately 

Yes, the next few days are “more of the same”, however by Friday (as has been modelled for several days now) things change to something colder, for a while at least. Hopefully that will herald an end to the persistent gloom, as by then it will have been over three weeks since there will have been even a minute of sunshine here.

The “cold spell” next weekend has now entirely vanished for the south, anyway. 

Let's hope  hope high pressure yields some sunshine - never guaranteed of course !!

The break down is coming soon and we will get down to -8C uppers so likely with lot of sunshine from the northerly flow then as long we do dnot get back to this horrible pattern again.