Doc, the BBC forecast tonight mentioned Aberdeen's 20 day run with rain and no sun. Possibly the longest run ever 🤔

My friends moved to the Isle of Lewis to live at New Year. Aultbea has had 20, dry, bright days. They keep sending photos of their daily walk on the sunny Atlantic coast......a different world to dark gloomy damp Edinburgh

I'm almost at 'Richard' level 😯

It made me laugh when she referred to the Western Isles being “not too far away” when referring to the contrast. It’s not too far away in the same way that the Lakes District is not too far away from London.

I worry there is a genuine risk that there could be less than an hour of sunshine here in a four week period. To say it is depressing is an understatement. As you say, I believe it is the dullest period of weather here in record.

I don’t really care if we see more snow this winter but some sunshine would be very welcome.

The ECM hints at some form of pattern change at 7 days out, still unsettled but a bit cooler and maybe just maybe brighter.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png 

 That ties in quite well with the general signal from the GEFS data for around that time period.

But the PV splits yet without an SSW then>?

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/meto.jpg 

I'd take that over this:

https://www.dmi.dk/lokation/show/IE/2964180/Galway 

Temps barely warmer than the inside of a fridge with marginal difference between minima & maxima, and made to feel all the more joyless  by that near constant breeze that hits from everywhere and of course, that spitty rain. On the plus side though, it does look like we might see a glimpse of sunshine in roughly about a week's time (I won't hold my breath though)

An SSW now looks unlikely as well so hopefully we can avoid a cold Spring at least.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind&ved=2ahUKEwiRh4KDqMSSAxUZUkEAHY3yKvsQFnoECB0QAQ&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw0dZBbfCFNWSCwK1FfFg8jX 

Been quite amusing watching the ECM zonal wind forecasts change, from above average strat winds, to below average and a likely reversal to nowhere near a reversal but still below the average. I know some comments are made about how it's usually easier to model the strat layers but if that's generally true, it obviously hasn't been lately!

Model wise I've not been looking religiously at things but the emergence of the toppling cold signal has been pretty consistent although as seems to be the case so far in 2026, there's still a fair bit of dissenting in the ens and it wouldn't surprise me if it disappears for MBY at least. 

As Darren mentions in the near term we're looking at a week of mildish days and mild/very mild nights down here, so likely to be significantly above average by mid month. The ECM eps for MBY show a strong signal for things to drop to below average around the 13th Feb and that to persist for 3 days or so, although that's assuming the colder shot doesn't get diverted.  One thing that doesn't look likely is any properly dry weather although some signs it'll be less wet than the first 5 days of the month, which have brought circa 34mm IMBY. 

GFS Op - takes an extra day i.e. Wed before the trough moves in. Then by Fri 13th this trough has transformed into a defined LP 975mb centred N Ireland and drawing in cold air from Scandinavia for all of Britain but esp the north. This LP circulates around the eastern side of the N Sea until Tue 17th drawing down rather cold N-lies, gale force Sat14th. A brief rise of pressure then another LP from the Atlantic passes across Britain 970mb N England Thu 19th entraining more cold air before finally HP and mild weather arrive from the SW Sun 22nd.

ECM - never really develops the cold weather; on Fri 13th the LP is already moving off SE-wards, the last of the cold air touching the SE Sun 15th as a ridge of HP moves up from the SW for the rest of Britain, even S-ly gales on Tue 17th. Later that week ECM converges with GFS as an LP moves in from the NW Thu 19th, but again fails to entrain cold air and fizzles out into a weak SW-ly.

AIFS - London, maxima about 8C now and around Tue 17th, down to 3C Fridays 13th and 20th. Rain in the milder periods, else drier. Edinburgh, much as London, perhaps a degree or two colder.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp and most ens members a little above norm to Fri 13th, then mostly a few degrees below norm to Tue 17th (but control and some runs 10+C below). After 17th mean is near norm but not meaningful as such a wide spread of ens members. Dry around Mon 9th. else rain in most ens members, often heavy if SW. In the N, similar, but cold  spell has better agreement with good chance of snow at that time. 

Agreed and hopefully a breakdown now count down.  Like what Matt say about 2 days toppler so thank god for this as this bring few days of sunny weather and much needed drier weather. 

We have had a southerly jet for over a month now and to be honest if all we get from a jet that has been over Spain is rain, then I don't hold much hope for the future.

I honestly think the climatic tipping point has been hit.

Except the continent hasn't actually been mild. This isn't one of those situations where we get an easterly that taps into a pointless Mediterranean airmass. Its subtly different. From north netherlands, east germany eastward and northward its been absolutely frigid. Indeed Scandanavia has been unusually cold for unusually long. 

The problem, I think is 'both sides atlantic' where the jet despite being far to the south was just a bit too strong and the cold never made the last 100 miles. We got stuck under constant cyclones that bounced off the strong block to the east. I do agree with you though, a slight initial change at xmas might have been all that we needed to bring it all a little further west. 

It does seem as though any chance of similar weather to those times has become a low probability. But where is the evidence that this is true. 

And more os the same coming up by the looks of it, lots of rain forecast for up there.

This is exactly what I was thinking the 10 day projected is now the 7 day projected. And repeating.

We could actually see significant widespread snow on one of those days if the shape of that LP is right. Hasn't happened yet, but at this point I feel we have to get lucky once this winter.

Yes, the continuation of the recordbreaking gloom is something we could do without. I hope next week pattern change ends that!

I concur, its been crazy. Very wet too, but in a more subtle way than in 2016. Rivers knowhere near as high but the build-ups on farmland are almost comparable.

Times have changed drastically.