It's no surprise to see a "blink and you'll miss it" waft of cold air down here as the block collapses - the GFS has been consistent with this since it picked up the idea a few days ago. And unlike our phantom easterly cold, which stayed at 10 days+, this one seems to be counting down as you'd expect (it's now on day 9). 

EDIT: Funny how consistency improves once our old friend the Azores High, allied with increased heights over Iberia, pops back up again.

😄👍

It really is a one day wonder ! But I would grab that if it means seeing some wintry weather.

Also you know that high at the end will build a decent block in time for March!

Cold push now mid week next week, not exactly in the reliable range, but not far FI either.

P3,P4,P5,P6,P7,P11,P12,P14,P15,P16,P17,P18,P19,P20,P22,P23,P24,P26,P27,P29,P30

Are all excellent 

for a day or two perhaps!

Anyway, I admire your optimism when most others have now lost all faith. This whole sorry saga has destroyed any trust in the models 

Same here and we do badly need a breakdown from this worst offender pattern out of it.  Poor Sun just shone yesterday for short time as this nasty pattern void any weather at all.  Had more sun in fast moving zonality pattern.  Breakdown now is vital and urgent. 

This winter will become know as ‘2026 - the winter at 10 days’.

GFS Op - like FAX but HP closer (near Denmark) so winds more S-ly or SE-ly for all than in FAX. Then after a false start, the Atlantic LP moves in with twin centres N Ireland and N England 970mb Fri 13th. As this drifts E-wards, N-lies behind it bring cold air in for that weekend  - but only briefly as pressure rises over England 1030mb Thu 19th though N-lies return to the E coast Sat 21st.

ECM - as in GFS the Atlantic LP moves closer but in this model earlier, on Wed 11th, but moves on smartly to SE Europe so the following N-lies are over by Fri 13th with pressure rising over Britain. Then an LP runs along the Channel Mon 16th and produces some rather fragile E-lies before the Atlantic revives Fri 20th with LP near Iceland bringing back SW-lies.

Not much agreement between these models after the middle of next week.

AIFS - London, maxima now around 8C dropping to 3C from Thu 12th and rain every day to 19th, winds mainly S-ly switching N-ly. Edinburgh, maxima 5-6C also dropping to 2-3C from 12th with some frosty nights, pptn every day possibly as snow later.

GEFS - In the S, mean temp close to norm well supported by ens members until Tue 10th, briefly dry Sat/Sun 7th/8th. then mean continues near or a little below norm, misleadingly as a very wide spread of ens members develops sharply (op and control very cold for a few days around 18th) rain showing up in most runs on some day or other after 10th, lots in SW (but usually dry if temp of ens member low so no snow except near E coast). In the N, the spreaad develops from Tue 10th as above but with a strong bias to colder weather, mean temp dipping to 5C below norm around Fri 13th, less pptn than in S but a greater chance (say 60%) it will fall as snow

Definite window of opportunity in 10 days for a Scandi high

Decent cold snap for the South East on the 6z op run, but again post 10 days!

I know so frustrating, it keeps adjusting North as we get nearer the time and the cold is watered down or pushed back further. Looking like the cold over Scandinavia will be finally blown away by about the 20th so we only have this last chase to endure for this Winter.

What a great title for a film!

Its a pretty weak showing though really

After that  SW flow is heading for us and I'll be glad of double figures!!

There is not going to be an SSW if there is not a reversal of zonal winds at 60°N and 10hPa. 

The colder weather is still on track for the second week of February here and with more a northerly component it is bound to be an improvement for this part of the world. There has been half an hour of sunshine here in the last 20 days. If I do not see another easterly spell for ten years it will still be too soon.