ECM 6z looks good, but I can see the next low waiting in the wings.

Saying that who knows, the PV and jet stream have had a mind of their own this season. Has anyone ever seen such a disrupted PV without an SSW before.

Well we got a high of 11.1c down here today, so with the euroslug in place we would probably be in the high teens. Actually sounds quite nice, bring on the slug.

GFS 12 z out to 114hrs is a disturbing  model run for the south west of the UK - flooding looks certain to return.   

A pattern change is needed.  Bring back the slug!

Its close enough now we can reliably say the cold spell will arrive. How long it will last for is a different matter.

As I said the other day, it's funny how much better the models are once a breakdown comes into view! This one, unlike the month+ of easterly chasing, does indeed look like counting down. Historically these sorts of things often end up as modified polar maritime and NW'lies, rather than the convective deep cold northerlies shown at a greater range, so my expectations are very low - minimal, in fact.

We'll see, anyway, and in the meantime at least there's something different to look forward to. I'm sure many of us will just be looking for a few dry days in a row if nothing more!

Seems we cant get an easterly without an SSW these days,  so our best bet will be a brief northerly

That event had -11 uppers following sharply behind the cold front right down to the south coast. Great event but can’t see the same depth and gradient this time but it’s 7 days away yet.

What are you viewing ECM on, Q? It doesn't start appearing on WZ, which I normally use to view the models, for another half-an-hour or so.

It’s on Meteociel (and a few other places I think).

Yes - because the dew points will be much lower. Therefore marginal temperatures should still mean snow and snow is more likely to be settling snow! Bring it on!! 

GFS 12z is very snowy for many as modelled! Please no downgrades for the pub run!!

 Very important first most priority is the breakdown this horrible set for good and not to return in our life times.  Breakdown on 12th onward from the 12z ensembles.

A very poor pub run unfortunately - a Very brief Northerly toppler that delivers diddly squat.

That's been wiped off the charts already, sadly.

Yep - spoke too soon! However, the ECM has been more consistent - but on the other hand - once the BBC talk of snow next week - you know its going to go Pete Tong! having said that, the two day toppled is pretty nailed on even with the GFS. This features in all the perturbations - some for longer than others. One swallow a summer doth not make, and so more runs needed before the fat lady sings - despite the numerous serial failings of the models in recent weeks over the Rex Block. The GFS is prone to flip flop, but the ECM is the highest performing model. The morning will be key.

The general theme remains the same this morning across the models available so far, GFS, GEM and MetO - the block collapses in a week's time, a ridge zips across the UK and, down here, we might just get one or two frosts as the winds fall light under the ridge. A couple of frosts, in February, amazing. And before that it's wet, wet, wet.

I'd be much more interested if I were in the NW, as the risk of snow there on all the models is higher towards the end of the working week.

EDIT: And the ECM completes the set, a transient ridge bringing a brief waft of -6 850s and a couple of frosts.

At least it'll be nice to see a frost, I guess, we've not had any down here for four weeks.

Who would have thought back in the first week of January with the origins of a huge Eastern block after a cold Christmas that "winter was over"