😆😆😆😆

I was born on Bloody Sunday. 😔

A tad off topic. In keeping with your post - but March is often warm in these parts in more recent years. Very much a Spring month both meteorologically and in real terms. Thankfully. 

Across the suites there’s a little more hope, especially the OG ECMs. The fat lady is singing, but she’s considering a course of Monjaro.

GFS Op - as yesterday, varies from FAX by bringing HP from Scandinavia S-wards so by Tue 3rd there's a more general LP to the SW and HP Norway with SE-lies for Britain The LP/HP tussle continues for the week but by Wed 11th the LP has moved to France 990mb and the HP has collapsed allowing NE-lies (quite cold?) to spread down to Britain but by the15th the Atlantic pushes a trough across C Britain, E-lies for the N, W-lies for the S.

ECM - Les of an LP/HP tussle as the LP settles over France from Sat 7th with E-lies setting in, not from a cold origin until 10th, and then going round weak N-ly as (like GFS) the Scandi HP collapses but (unlike GFS) HP over Britain holds off the Atlantic

AIFS - London, max temps dropping from 8C to 3C over the next fortnight, rain to 8th then drier, winds boxing the compass. Edinburgh, from 7C to 4C, rain persisting to 12th, winds persistently E-ly.

GEFS -  mean temp and most ens members near norm to 11th then cold to 14th before recovering, control is a notably cold outlier  in SE from 7th onwards, some rain most likely  around 4th and 14th, (heavy in SW) never really dry. Scotland similar but more ens members follow the control, quite good chances that the rain will turn to snow after 11th.

I'd say the fact it's twitched this morning isn't overly surprising - HP establishing enough around Greenland to start to influence the UK more widely has always been around the 7th. Scotland as you'd expect in that pattern has been modelled to have colder air sooner, and that's what I think the preceding couple of days sets have been showing - colder in Scotland, nothing down south as the colder air wasn't likely to get down here by then.

I think the general set up remains consistent - nearly all output agreeing that blocking will establish to the north, the disagreement remains in how robust that is and whether as a result cold air makes it far enough south for a UK colder interlude countrywide or just for the north. The chances of UK cold for at least a few days do look decent based on current ens IMO but there's enough dissenters to suggest it could all fade away and as with the last effort, tweak the jet versus blocking and the end result will be noticeably different!

(Not really looked at it lately but I notice GEM is a bit different this morning with HP build over Scandi, not Greenland. As with the last cold spell probably worth keeping an eye on I guess as it presumably modelled the strength of the jet better in the longer term). 

Its a marathon not a sprint, the chase continues.

Well several marathons to be precise. In fact the ensembles have been the same for several weeks now. Remember when the tipping point almost a month ago after the only vaguely cold spell (down here of course, not NE Scotland) was January 25th, 10 days away. More recently it was February 7th. This morning it is February 10th. See the pattern? - the change is always 10 days away. Why will this prediction be different? Not saying it can't happen by  the way, but the evidence isn't strong is it?

The marathon comment was Qs not mine 😉

I'd have to look back through the thread/s for the older stuff but the theme of HP establishing towards Greenland around 7th Feb has been remarkably consistent for several days (I was saying much as I did today back on 25th Jan). I generally view the issue with some model commentary that low chances of cold get amplified as the models are showing a cold spell, when the overall output suggests otherwise. The cold stragglers we had for the start of Feb being a good example - that *never* got close to being more likely than not but was used to suggest another backtrack by some posters when said stragglers moved back in line with the majority. 

I'd be surprised if the HP build bit doesn't happen, as it's been so consistently shown and is counting down towards the reliable. I am not confident that will lead to countrywide cold but again on the balance of the output we can see, I think it's a good chance.

Other's are free to interpret the models differently of course, but it does rather go against the spirit of the thread if the output is dismissed or ignored because it's FI and may change or because our climatology suggests it's a less likely outcome.  

Might not be. But regardless its still better than the average condition which is literally nothing on the horizon at all. The median outcome (if not the most likely outcome) is something interesting at 10 days time, with a best case scenario being something a little sooner and the worst case scenario nothing at all.

Also really cold air over scandi is going nowhere, and it is freezing up the baltic Getting above average sea ice there also puts us in good stead for something colder than usual if we ever do get the right setup.

It does feel like the discussion will keep going until someone looks out of the window and says, “Blimey, isn't it light in the evening?”

Or the daffodils are out which around here will be in a week or so. I’m not going to repeat what’s already been described and mused upon for weeks now, but this tediously endless chase for cold weather has to end at some point. To put it into context the only snow I’ve seen this winter or indeed for years is a snow flurry in Newcastle whilst there for work back on Nov 28th.

The bit in bold is key as there has never been anything close to cross model agreement for any post Christmas cold snap/spell. Of course we (or most of us) tend to focus on ops and perts that promise a wintery nirvana, but it's never been consistent either within or between model runs, so the chance of these charts verifying was always low. It's not been helped by the amount of model runs each day.

Personally, I think it's been one of the best periods for model watching as there has always been something to keep me interested - contrast this to most winters where I might check the output once a day on the off-chance the long fetch southwesterlies might veer northwesterly. If we eventually get a proper cold spell it will be up there with the best!