No idea what day your birthday is but my forecast for that day will be 7/8 degrees with drizzle. 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-33.png?6 

GFS 00z +126 

Quite a difference between GFS and most of the others at this range

The GFS and ECM have been in remarkably good agreement for the last day or two with both the ops and the ensembles, but I see that has gone by the board with this morning's 0Z runs, with the GFS having taken a turn for the milder but the ECM not much changed from yesterday's 12Z.

Mine's tomorrow. Not that long ago, it was looking like I'd have a cold and possibly snowy birthday.

I have, mind, had several birthdays with snow either falling or on the ground (curiously, very few if any when I was a kid in the 70's/80's)

🤣👍

Not an enormous difference (in the wider scheme) - it's principally the latitude of the low towards our south (obvs, GFS has it further north)

In the near term, yet more heavy rain hitting the SW with the focus on Dartmoor which has already born the brunt this week - another 50mm or so in the next 48 hours.

By T180 GFS has even weaker northern blocking than the 0Z run.

We may get a greenland high, but also in the direct firing line of storms.  this is looking like 2014 flooding all over again.

It's rather more than one run, though. Apart from the 0Z GFS, most recent GFS and ECM runs have shown a formidable Greenland High developing in FI and eventually bringing us "proper" cold. Yes, it's a long way out, but for that far in the future it's been surprisingly consistent. Edit: I'd posted that halfway through seeing the GFS 06Z charts in FI, and getting towards the end of FI it's no longer looking so good.

GFS 06z. Forget 'the beast from the East' we may have 'the force from the North' . If you say it with a bit of a short tongue type speak it nearly rhymes.

Wait another 15 years before we see  such promise again....fear gfs will be right , they get this winter now.. 

This one, which feels like it’s been on the charts since Christmas is, simply put, just too much of an effort. My goto suite MOGREPs twitched yesterday but is back to average again so I’m not buying into it.

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2026012912/arpegeeur-0-114.png?12 

Yes.  It was my birthday last Friday and as usual, it rained.  I’ve come to accept that these days.  

Areas north of  East Anglia favoured in that chart

Hey Saint......it's mine tomorrow too 😂 Born in 1958 so I've had some snowy birthdays.....my 21st in 1979 was a belter high up in West Yorkshire....had to struggle through huge drifts to the pub!......sorry mods

And have actually had a few cold /snowy ones over the years despite it being on the verge of spring. Winter often has a sting in its tail then, it is seldom warm.

Wrote my car off that year sadly which dampened the joy from the snow, sadly some people are not so great at driving in these conditions /this is all the worse because of how rarely we get them.