From what I can see re cold weather, there's reasonable agreement for Scotland and maybe NE England having cold air at points over the next 10 days or so. Given when it's not 'cold' it still looks likely to be chilly in the far north and certainly chilly enough for further snow over the higher ground, it's a bit of an old school pattern. There's realistically little chance of any properly cold air being dragged down countrywide, so in the south for this period it's a case of what temp the rain is and how much of it will there be. As you head further north the chances of some hill snow increase and if the stars align maybe some transient low level stuff at times too.
From around 7th Feb or so there's a decent signal that colder air may make it's way south, courtesy of blocking somewhere around Greenland. There seems to be an unusually good level of agreement in the blocking bit, but not on how much of an influence this has over the UK - Scotland looks likely to see colder air again as a result of the blocking, it's uncertain the further south you head but there's a decent signal for the cold to cover most of the UK. There's also a decent signal for it not to get as far south as MBY, so confidently predicting cold would be a bit premature/daft IMO. Plus it remains in deep FI and whilst it's been a persistent signal for a while now, that's no guarantee it won't disappear as it gets closer to the reliable and the models get a better handle on the jet, LP strengths etc.
As it stands the one thing that doesn't look likely is dry weather - most of the drainage ditches locally are full at present and the ground saturated, so any 10+mm rain events is likely to lead to some local issues and any more noticeable rainfall totals could lead to more noticeable flooding.
Edit = hadn't seen the ECM set that Brian's just posted, would probably have been more pessimistic about the longer term cold chances down here if I had!
Originally Posted by: Hippydave