Yes, like yesterday's 6z run it's one of the cold cluster - which continues to chug along at around a 30% risk (in terms of -10s for London). The rainbow faded out, but it's back - still far in the distance, of course. It remains mildly interesting but that's all. 

But again it’s jam tomorrow. There’s been so much of it this month I’ll end up with Type 2 by the end of February.

If (and it’s a big if) the next interesting period does get reigned in I’ll need to see it on MOGREPS which didn’t buy into the last few fairytales so it’s my go to suite at the moment. 7th Feb is just beyond its range as of today but I’ll be looking for a twitch.

7th February looks like a key moment. But Jam tomorrow has been the theme of this winter so far - at least for those of us in the south. I am at the point now that if come Friday that has moved further out to the 10th that I’ll just throw in the towel.

Yep still a long way to go yet.

It often does in my experience. I think this was traditionally the point bottled up stable cold air out east destabilised and spilled out westwards, and hence the old weather lore “when the days lengthen, the cold strengthens” but all of course from pre GW times, but I guess this year with the Rex block in place (sadly just missed us due to the raging energy level in the GW affected Atlantic), we have the cold air out east/ north east, and that is no longer so normal  in recent years. So this cold air may follow the weather lore to honour the legacy of Buchan! My money is on this verifying - finally!!

GFS Op - The above trough is disrupted by HP growing over Scandinavia and ridging S-wards, net result from Sun 1st  to Fri 6th is back to the all-too-familiar pattern of a standoff between Atlantic LP and Continental HP with strong S-lies for Britain. From Fri 6th the Atlantic LP slips SE-wards to S France with cold (but probably not very cold) E/NE-lies established to Wed 11th. Then the Scandi HP moves W-wards to Iceland while pressure drops in Scandinavia and on Fri 13th Britain has cold (but probably not very cold) N-lies (somehow the deep cold continues to stick to the east).

ECM - matches GFS but with rather brisker E-lies around Wed 11th with a chance of entraining colder air later.

WX charts are promising a 'snow bomb' on Tue 3rd and again on the 10th with a long cold spell to follow - that's just a tease as they out in front in the 'crying wolf' stakes.

AIFS - London, maxima 5C at first, 8C for next week with rain at times, drier with maxima 2-3C from Sun 8th, winds S-ly going NE-ly from the 8th. Edinburgh, maima 5-6  C to the 7th, then 3C, quite a lot of cold rain (implying hill snow) from Sun 1st, winds E-ly backing NE-ly.

GEFS - In the S,mean and ens temps near norm to Sun 8th then mean dipping as the majority of ens members (but not all)  take a much colder view (both op & control 10C below norm at times). Rain for a week from Fri 30th (heavy and prolonged in SW) but drying up as it turns cold so maybe no snow. In the N, similar temp profiles, pptn limited but persistent, so a better chance of some snow towards the end (30% ish)

Yes, it had earlier on in its run got rid of the pool of cold air that is tapped into by the GFS. But by the end of the extended it looked like it was about to bring in a sweep of cold air from the north and north-east. Still much too far away to be relied on of course, but the similarity to the GFS at that point is striking. Abd both models have their ensemble 850mb mean temps down around -5 by that point, which is a pretty strong signal for that far out.

It has been horrendous down here with 105mm of rain falling on Dartmoor in 24 hours.

Flooding and train cancellations continue and now a sink hole near the train track in Dawlish!!!!

If an Easterly does arrive with strong winds we will be back to coastal flooding in Torbay rather than rainfall.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50625&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Yes the model was identical. But then the flip point was January 25th and we all know what happened then in the end.

Yep. Looking at ensembles on GFS interest is now at 09 Feb. I’m jus not interested any longer. I fear the death knells of proper winter now. Roll on spring. 

Where do you see Exeter's longer term now Neil?

It's one of the annoying things about the new MetO app, it's disappeared 🤔

Their updates switching to cold this season have so far been a hex on any such set-up in the models.

Just as GFS op changes to a weak northerly!

And return of the Azores High