That's a 24 hr forecast that has been ditched now according to the BBC this evening. What chance for a prediction of an Easterly in 10 days. Not much based on that!

It’s a genuine thing rather than a slightly more literate Gary Sarre ramper’s rubbish

Edit: it does, kind of, although the Azores limpet stops a clean flow. 

At the moment the train is stuck in Berlin.  Getting an easterly to reach the UK always requires every piece of the puzzle to fall into place and a heavy dose of luck.  Rare as hen's teeth for a reason

Will it happen? Who knows, as easterlies are fickle things. The prospect of days of drizzly doesn’t excite me much either.

Well, we had the drizzly rain while you were having your fun earlier - it's our turn now! 😁

The number of deep cold (i.e. -10) 850 runs has gradually been decreasing on GEFS, being maybe a 1 in 4 chance now rather than a 1 in 3. An easterly of some sort still looks reasonable, but the "jackpot" of an 80s style one? I still won't be getting my hopes up any time soon. Incidentally the ECM and GFS "AI" models both show a snowy easterly of the classic style, I suspect pattern-matching 2005's synoptics. 

It continues to be a fascinating period of model-watching, even if in the short term it's unexciting.

EDIT: The ECM-46 has been firming up on an end-of-month cold spell too, and as it picked out the recent spell in advance of anything else - it's worth paying attention to. The cold lingers into the following week, too, and the anomalies suggest an easterly of sorts.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202601140000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202602020000 

ECM certainly does - it takes its time but is a beauty when it arrives. 

GFS is less good, it briefly arrives and then collapses south, but there are a couple of runs that bring prolonged very cold conditions, P5 being the pick. 

FAX - starts with LP 980mb mid Atlantic driving fronts across Britain on a SW-ly, with waves in the fronts augmenting the rainfall. This collapses into a general area of LP over Britain (on Friday there are no less than five separate LP centres between N Norway and S Britain). By Monday there are still stagnant fronts N-S over Britain as the HP 1043mb Russia begins to promote E/SE influence.

GFS Op - As above; then the HP begins to move N and by Thu 22nd is 1045mb just E of Finland, ridging to N Britain, with E-lies trying to get established. These fail as a deep LP approaches NW Britain Mon 26th with strong S-lies sandwiched between LP to the W and HP to the E. The Lp manages to push its way past N Norway and the HP drops S-wards to become centred 1040mb English Channel Thu 29th. By Sat 31st the LP is in control 975mb N Norway and threatening Britain with N-lies.

ECM - the 'sandwich' appears a day earlier but then a piece of the LP breaks off and heads to Biscay Wed 28th while the main LP retreats to Greenland. This opens the way for a proper E-ly with an embedded cold pool crossing S Britain Thu 29th though with HP moving from Scandi to Iceland, winds go round to N-ly.

AIFS - London maxima 10C now dropping to ice days from Sat 24th, only just above even by Thu 29th, and winds gong round NE-ly. Rain now, mostly dry later. Edinburgh, maxima staying at 5C to the 24th then about 2C with rain/snow.

GEFS - mean temp near norm to the 24th then a little below, being dragged down by several rather cold ens members though most stay with the mean, rain now in the S, many but not all ens members wet (esp in W) after the 24th. Significant chance of snow in Scotland later on.

The 24th appears to be a tipping point between GFS and ECM

I don't think so. However, TWO forecasts now give you the option to switch to ECMWF. Just scroll down and you'll see the button below the forecast panel. They're currently using today's 00Z run. 

The interesting thing is that the GFS 00z and 06z sink the block in completely different ways, so there is little consistency between runs on the face of it. Pressure over Greenland differs by about 30mb between the 2 runs on the morning of the 22/1; the 06z run keeps heights at 1030mb, but develops a low pressure system to the North of Svalbard which sinks the block, whereas it's Atlantic incursion which eventually sinks the block on the 00z.

Still some extremely cold easterly incursions in the 6z ENS though.

Lots of volatility and I think we're still a good few days away from knowing which way this is going to go.

No it uses the IBM model (or at least did last I checked). I have noticed it has trended much milder for the coming 10 days over the last 48 hours or so - it was showing a max of 3C for next Wednesday, with a steady decline in temps up to that point, but now shows a flatlined 8-9C for the next 10 days.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=6&time=276&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

The latest GFS is disappointing because it follows a solution that has been thrown around in recent days of it sinking towards Ukraine rather than sticking around over Scandi. The result is the high builds further east and south and the cutoff is trapped over Russia. Some of these runs still end up cold as further WAA repeats the cycle later down the line.

Still, the exact track of the bubble is not known yet. The 6Z GFS is only one possibility of an array that have been floated just today, and the GFS is almost an outlier in terms of taking it so far south and east. As I say, part of the problem is that the arctic is abysmally modelled, and key tracks of a bubble of warm air (even in the more reliable upper trop) are not resolved until quite a low lead time.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_aifs.php?&ech=360&mode=45&carte=6&aifs=2 

But heavy snow turns to heavy rain for the SE post 324hrs as a bit milder air gets in the mix

Then back to heavy snow again. 

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026011506/ecmwfnh-13-144.png?6 

Even at 144h this affects the cold core cutoff which is already further west, you can see it centered over western Russia and pushing as far west as the Baltics