I'm still resisting the urge to get excited about this, especially given the timeframes involved, but it's most interesting to see so many of the members/op runs going for an easterly of sorts even if it is a week or more out. That's about as strong a signal as you'll get at this range, and the MetO text forecasts are worth reading too, as they also mention a high to the NE and colder weather towards the end of the month. 

It's been a long time since we had a textbook Scandinavian High that wasn't at the very end of winter, or a transient easterly flow for a day or two as the Azores High ridged NE'wards for a bit. The irony is of course we had a "blink and you'll miss it" Scandinavian High over Christmas, but the (small) upper cold pool ended up going to France instead. In the 80s/90s (and I suspect earlier) these patterns did have a habit of repeating, a "practice run" as my late mum called it - perhaps, just perhaps, we'll see that again this time. 

Shows why we need another 24h to firm up.

The warm svalbard bubble ends up not over Scandanavia but absorbed in Ukraine:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2026011412/gemnh-13-192.png?12 

Note the patch of -26C in Ukraine where it ends up. That's why the GEM appears to go wrong, since it 'drags' the high SEward. The only reason it gathers itself is another svalbard bubble after T+192. In fact a few models show this, that if the initial WAA fails there might be other attempts.

Yes, it looks to be from the 23rd/24th, assuming we tap in to the cold air.

Brian - Are the GEFS running slow tonight generally or is it just on TWO? 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 

There were some delays on TWO earlier which have cascaded through the day. That said, the GEFS 12Z are just finishing at the moment and don't seem particularly late.

I think it's reasonable to have decent confidence in some kind of easterly component to our winds starting in around 7-10 days time, which could range from a couple of days of a chilly south east waft to the early stages of proper cold spell. The ens are still suggesting a lower possibility of more generally unsettled weather if the atlantic has more grunt than the HP, albeit it's not necessarily an either or so much as a wobble between the 2. 

Looking at the ens suites and ECMs op and ens from earlier, I'd tend to go with a cold (uppers) easterly as more likely than milder unsettled weather but much less likely than a fairly bland chilly pattern with an easterly component but things not aligned favourably for more than that. 

I'd be entirely happy though if the 12z ens suites suggest I'm being unduly pessimistic.

May I ask what a 'Kennedy cold spell' is, Brain? It's up there with Beast's 'Murr sausage' in terms of mysterious meanings. 

ECM 12z out to 192 and is massively different from GFS at that time. Atlantic influence. 

I would assume the Siberian Express stops at Berlin and westward travel is subject to a bus replacement service

"Ich bin ein Berliner"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ich_bin_ein_Berliner 

I love that dartboard low over Sicily. 

It's easy to overlook when analysing the various flavours of northern blocking, but they do all need that low pressure in the Med to support them.

Looks good enough to me. Can’t complain about the ECM charts tonight even if they are not quite as good as the GFS. 

Yes, the ECM Op gets there eventually, even though it takes it almost to the end of FI to bring in the serious cold. Is that the first time that both GFS and ECM Ops, if not quite singing from the same hymn sheet, are at least both singing hymns? (Perhaps the most appropriate hymn would be "In the Bleak Midwinter".)

Would have been very appropriate if we had had some of the current model output three weeks ago. 😁

Actually, since my earlier reply there has been an update from NCEP saying there are known problems with GEFS data access which are being investigated.

No problem Brian, cheers for getting back 👍