Needs Azure high to bugger off and let that low pressure ride underneath the block

I rarely post but have lurked for years. Does the GFS 06Z OP run lessen the probability of Atlantic influence? I like the look of this one. It would be nice to get something similar in real weather. 

Lurked lots of years and change in probability of only a small % at this moment in time. 

Yes, pretty chilly - doesn't quite open the floodgates like yesterday's 12Z but a very solid block and extremely cold over Europe... a pool of -25C air trying gamely to make its way westwards.

It certainly does. The model runs are flip flopping from westerly to easterly components influencing our weather, a week or so out. Will be a while before the models get a handle on it. So many variables at play.

Do you rate the AIGFS? 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2026011406/gfsnh-13-126.png?6 

Here it is on the 6Z, its quite a bit further south than it has been in previous days. I said this might be almost be resolved by today's 12Z; I'm no longer convinced given its track over the next 24 hours (up to T+144) seems to be crucial. Anyway the warm bubble gets absorbed into scandanavia this time around and produces a shorter fetch but less cold easterly. The cold cutoff does eventually arrive with the colder uppers but is also positioned further south.

As I say, expect big deviations from run to run for now until this is resolved.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&time=240&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 

Will happen one day and your other post about seeing -6C day time is the biggest dream to get those temperatures.  It been very well overdue for a nationwide blizzards not just local ones like we had last week here with less cold temperatures.   06z ensembles show more members on the colder side so hope further runs to bring them all down to -10C to -15C zone;.  I notice the precips spike very high under -2C uppers wondering if a repeat of last week storm that got heavy snow with same uppers levels but went near 0C before pivot away.  Rain turn to snow on my birthday this friday?

They're much of a muchness IMHO. I focus on looking for cross model agreement, rather than the output from any particular one.

I like your approach. In essence I agree in the majority blend that we’ll be in an easterly quadrant regime this time next week. Yet to be resolved is the depth and longevity of the CAA that it brings. The fact that we are seeing members throw out the sort of snowmageddon charts that are the stuff of a weather enthusiast’s wet dream should be taken as a positive supporting the trend, albeit not necessarily providing a realistic outcome. 

It’s going to be a fascinating few days in here - buckle up!

Svalbard bubble behaving very similarly to the 6Z, basically it gets absorbed over Scandanavia which should encourage a big height rise there. It means a lower risk, lower stakes scenario with a weaker cold core cutoff compared to if the WAA was further north. However, as we saw with the 6Z further bubbles of warmth from the atlantic can eventually promote more cold core cutoffs to move westward.

Good inter-run consistently again with GFS again up to 144. In terms of uppers, they may not be that low at first, but sub-zero dps start to filter in by next Weds so it will at least start to have that ‘continental’ feel.

The warm bubble of air Q mentions is fascinating, as it's very reminiscent of the sort of thing that happened frequently up until the late 90s. Since then it's been much harder to get the classic Siberian High extension into Scandinavia, and I've a feeling that warm air advection up over Svalbard plays an important part in the process. More commonly these days we just see a displaced Azores High ridge NE'wards, briefly, but that's table scraps compared to the juicy "high to the north of the jet" scenario.

I'm guessing this is all related to the Christmas block, as that really does seem to have upset the status quo. We may be back to mild, wet and windy down here but it looks increasingly likely that the mildness will be as temporary as our modern cold spells seem to be! It remains an excellent period of model-watching, and if nothing else we'll remember this winter as one where we weren't just looking at zonal charts all the way out to 240 and beyond each day!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/24810/gfseu_0_276cdo0.png 

"Only" -12C upper air so not as good as the stellar 12Z yesterday, but a theme is developing and the southeast gets buried once again. I'll ignore the annoying pocket of mild air pushing in from the east at the end 🙂