https://images.meteociel.fr/im/77/19263/348_7UKvro3.GIF 

Here's an animation showing that beautiful Scandinavian High evolution. I'll be saving this in my "if only" directory!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/76/17169/animidh8.gif 

I think if the run came to fruition, it would be depths on a par with 1987. Ridiculous run

Observe the warm bubble over Svalbard, its further north and causes the deep high to later end up further north, this provides a longer track for the cold cutoff.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2026011312/gfsnh-13-144.png?12 

You can see the cold cutoff here in all its glory. Its large and deep, which is why so much cold air gets embedded into it. Notice however that there is also upper level cold over the UK from the atlantic which is very risky. In the end it gets dispersed and more WAA from the atlantic reinforces the setup. But its close to failure. And that's the problem here. Risk it for the biscuit or the safer shorter fetch with less impressive cold.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2026011312/gfsnh-13-210.png?12 

You and me both Darren...

It's February '91 that fueled my obsession with the weather. I'd even be willing to accept a slightly watered down version, taking into account background warming. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/20/28803/372_780UKfxr1.GIF 

It's just a shame that we're seeing it at T+360 rather than T+36. The charts will look nothing like that come the time, of course, but maybe - just maybe, we'll get an easterly of some sort towards the back end of next week...

The upper level anticyclone is further north so the T+192 median has more atlantic influence, but there is also more cold air in Eastern Europe.

The problem is tendencies in this direction would end us seeing the influence lost completely, 12Z is an upgrade in 'tasty chart' terms, but I'm not sure it really is in terms of the pattern. As I say its risking losing everything if we continue in this direction.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=12&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/23349/ecmwfuk_32_70ksv0.png 

Almost the same path as 87

Nothing in Holland...lake effect snow

Yes,  not seen that for a while as Darren said.

ECM 12z  is poor though so feet on the ground. 

Though the GFS ensemble was chilly, the Op was definitely a cold outlier. Ideally that would be matched by the ECM Op being a mild outlier.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal 

Very interesting. I think it was Retron a week ago who suggested this is how the cold spell of the 80s used to start. Stand to be corrected.

It a good thing to be an outlier, it help to bring the white mean line down further. was surprised to see -16C over Nuneaton ensembles as i only see -14C on the charts for here and -16C in Kent.   Date no back track and the dropping commence on 21st Jan.  Hope this carry on as they did for 2010 and 2022 heatwave.

Another decent set. The outrageous Op run was an outlier during the late extreme stage, though some members offered up a diluted version of what was to my mind the best run in many a year (certainly for us southerners!)  

Maybe it would be better if they tweaked it from day 3 as was mentioned above the first two days are likely to be very accurate. In fact with the massive modern super computers they should be able to tweak the starting point several different ways at several different time points. Maybe they do but it is just too much data to publish.

...... but as with all science you use the most accurate data available and surely that is the present?

That's true, but doesn't that just describe the op run? 

If a true outlier it shouldn't be part of the mean, strictly speaking but visually I know what you mean.

Definitely. It's a bit of a double bubble in that it is a long way out from the reliable and statistically it has been an incredibly rare event in the last few decades!

Fresh back from Wengen having missed snow IMBY whilst away, I did, however, see a spectacular 24 hour snowfall from Storm Gerotti at temperatures around -4 to -6, which was a reminder of times past, True Christmas card scenes, but to see eye-candy charts for the UK lowlands like these is a sight for sore eyes For my return, but it is a shame that they are not too well supported by the Pert’s or other models. I guess it is what Quantum is talking about - and the effect is quite opposite to what we all want. However, half the pert’s still show some kind of easterly and cold incursion, which is better odds than Ive seen for many a cold spell that far into FI. More runs needed - but it is a relief to see that it is possible to get these sort of conditions in the UK, if all the ducks align at the right time of the year; so these odds I accept: Incredibly rare though it is to get such cold air fed to us in the way portrayed.