Indeed…the latest BBC weather forecast for week ahead from Chris Fawkes mentioned the “possibility” of the high regressing further to the west to allow a much colder northerly with snow to set in…..but no more than a possibility and certainly the Met Office aren’t seeing that yet….

Need that Caspian high just to give the Russian lows a little nudge west....

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2025122312/aromehd-42-42-1.png?23-15 

As does the GFS 12z op run. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPFR12_42_53.png 

Except the airmass is properly cold this time. I think anything from the 29th onwards is potentially still on the table.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

You may want to pay a visit to say goodbye to one or two posters. 😉

UKV too. 

Seems in line with the mean temp pattern it has been showing the last few days. Once Europe cools down, it is easier for colder air masses move down. 

Edinburgh at least had a wetter than average autumn and even a wet start to this month, but even that hasn’t even come close to being enough to make up the massive rainfall deficit which had built up throughout the year until then.

This means that if this deficit isn’t made up during the rest of this winter, we could end up facing even worse issues regarding water scarcity during next year than what we have witnessed this year and in some parts of the UK, that could be very serious indeed.

It's another generally chilly and sometimes cold run though, right to the end. 

Ens wise I'd say both GEFS and ECM set have a bit more uncertainty, with more mild or very mild scatter at 850 level as you head deeper into FI. Not unusual but a slight downgrade IMO over earlier sets today if you're inclined to look closely. 

Still plenty of encouragement tonight but as the more fun stuff is very much FI and given the ens signal isn't too convincing, will take some of the nicer charts with usual pinch of salt until we see them getting into more reliable territory. If nothing else though it remains a fun period of model watching and an unusually long period where a return to zonal and mild seems unlikely. 

Lack of rainfall? gosh here in the SW rainfall is most unwelcome - caused all problems from flooding to potholes etc etc...

I was just looking at latest 18z Op - @ 228z and if this came about the UK would be the most unlucky (or lucky) depending on your preference country to be in Europe missing out on the cold, esp seeing the sub -10c hpa just to our east covering almost 2/3 thirds. of Europe. 

I do wonder why the models have struggled lately and having looked at the ENS for cities in the NE USA states such as NYC and Boston it looks like it is turning colder there yet again and I wonder if this is blasting up the jet and the models are picking up on this and thus flattening/toppling any ridge trying to build to our north?

North view:

In fairness, we'll have alot of debate about how cold it might get but I don't think that anyone's going to argue that it's a dry outlook ahead. There's little chance of any appreciable rain for the next 10 days minimum. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=edinburgh&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20 (GPDM)

Bone dry to the New Year and no prospect of any appreciable change after that. A welcome drying out of the ground over here but not so welcome elsewhere. 

Also possible some unexpected snizzle for the south. I dont know if that would count as a technical white xmas

White Xmas for Jersey if that comes off!? Early hours of 5th shows light snow over channel isles on GFS: Don't know when they last had a white Xmas !? But also shows parts of Northern France seeing some snow early hours of Xmas day esp Brittiany and Normandy!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=213&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Spikes return New Year initially wintry flavour then return to mild? Not sure a cold US will revamp the jet like a previous poster said under present conditions ...the mid Atlantic block reminds me of 2005 and that delivered a decent long fetch easterly late Feb early March....

Meanwhile, the mostly benign spell starts very soon which will bring some respite. 

The last true easterly spell, and one that the late Philip Eden said could well be the last we'd see. It was definitely the last one he saw! Despite the lateness of the event it delivered everything by the textbook, and had 14 days in a row of snow falling - and on the ground - here. It's where the background picture of my "ensemble watch" chart comes from. 

Back to the here and now, the GEFS at least is mildly in favour of a cold event around the new year period, with a slight majority of members bringing -10 850s to London. It's the same sort of ratio as had snow here on Christmas Day a similar time out - will history repeat itself? 

Both of the pattern matching models show a cold plunge around then too, albeit they've a limited set of modern equivalents to draw upon.