I agree with this. This morning, the consensus seemed to be snow on Christmas day for the Channel Islands. While that may still be the form horse, it wouldn't take very much to shift the snow risk North to Southern England or well to the South of the Channel Islands. If it were a rain forecast, we'd barely comment on that shift but we pay alot more attention to where snow falls.  

Most models currently show the precipitation band grazing the far South West on Christmas day. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes of snow in the air on the high ground in the far Southwest of Cornwall.

A longer shot is that the air mass is cold enough for my old home, the Isles of Scilly to record a white Christmas - that hasn't happened for a long time! Sadly it's more likely to be rain.

Yes they've also downgraded it from below average temperatures to average or slightly below average, and are now talking of milder unsettled conditions affecting northern areas in early Jan. They have never mentioned snow or especially cold conditions once in the LRF, therefore I think we can safely say now that any snow to low lying areas is looking extremely unlikely in the next few weeks.

A week is a long time in weather.  

Agreed. I think Yes Minister would have described such statements as “brave” or “courageous” given the outlook beyond Christmas. He could of course be right but as ever there are no links to models or any analysis once again just a dismissive statement. To phrase an earlier contributor, “same posters, same comments”.

Meanwhile, the output so far on the 12a runs is pretty consistent with the last few sets with the cold pool passing across France rather than southernmost parts. The GFS 12z op run is currently out to day 6 at time of writing and is basically the same as the 06z run at the same point. So a settled spell weather coming up for the Christmas period, but what will be shown beyond then? It would need to be a turnaround from the trend to reflect what was suggested for into the New Year on the Met Office forecast (as the ensembles from previous runs suggested a colder picture was a real risk from the north - of course to be taken with a pinch of salt at that range even if it is a trend).

Alternatively, there’s an expression, “You might say that, I couldn’t possibly comment”….

GFS 12z out to Day 8 now and the jet profile is quite different. It looks like more energy in the northern arm again but let’s see.

Yes it looks that way in this run. The start of a new trend (or one of the milder options in the ensembles?). The FI section of the GFS op runs seem to have a lack of consistency but that’s nothing new.

It looks as if the anticyclonic period over Christmas is pretty nailed on now.

Given just how different the op is starting in the mid term (and not just over the UK, US pattern is different) I'll wait for the ens. 

The 6z had a minority of similar solutions with the majority being much colder, as I would assume did the ECM suite. 

If there's been a big shift towards this being a more likely solution in the ens and it's reinforced by the ECM and continues tomorrow, then  (my) confidence in anything other than the brief colder shot the 12z shows will definitely diminish.

The irritating thing about HP setups can be how different the weather is depending on whether they end up positioned differently and how all of a sudden a change to jet angle/strength can seemingly push them aside. Obviously it's more noticeable at this time of year versus a zonal setup as there's more potential for cold. 

The northerly plunge was only ever a trend and option in the ensembles from data way in FI, and it still is. If it is still there for the New Year on the charts by the end of the week it will be of more interest. Out to day 9 there has been little change in the ensemble suite (and it’s around that time the cold air was modelled to come in from the north).

So, clear majority near or below average at this stage. Objective conclusion.

....... indeed, along with the rest, live the dream, even though I'm not sure I could walk 10 metres in ice and snow these days!

Yes, I was surprised at the 5.5mm I got. We are mugs though aren't we? But then it's all part of the annual winter ritual.😀

We are, but you get the feeling this might not go the way most of us want it to. Being a nat’s whisker away from the magic of a white Christmas would be ok if we had something to cheer in the run up to New Year, but even that ship is showing hints of creaking and the leaks are appearing. More runs needed?

The question will be whether it is a gloomy high or a sunny high. Winter high pressure spells are very often plagued with cloud, especially the ones close to the shortest day. Initially with a slight easterly component to the wind, I'd suspect it will be western areas that see the best of any sunshine. Later on, as the high begins to sink, then it will be more likely to be eastern areas.

Sadly I agree, we need a turnaround soon.