I wouldn't rule out a flake or two on the high ground in the far Southwest of Cornwall .

Not necessarily. UKV is now suggesting a few wintry showers. For example:

Its a good point, WRF suggesting something similar. South, west, and early seems to be key as that's where the temperatures will be low enough for the snow grains to survive (and I think it will be grains rather than flakes).

Jersey's not part of the UK, so it wouldn't count.

Which seems to endorse the GFS - albeit With a little less gusto. The ECM reluctantly admits to a motherly at the end of the run - by the 8th of Jan, but with a very bland fetch that would be good for wintry showers perhaps. The GFS is however, a humdinger - proper eye candy with -10 uppers and heaps of snow down the east side - if only!!

I’ll walk up the hill behind me tomorrow which is 815ft and report on any suspicious white precipitation 😁

A long way off, but not without support.

One to watch.

GFS Op - As FAX; then the HP moves towards Greenland by New Year's Eve, allowing properly N-lies to develop and on Fri 2nd in combination with LP 990mb Germany deliver a brief very cold and unsettled NE-ly blast to SE England. The HP soon resumes sinking  S-wards, first pushing the LP away and later, by Fri 9th is in C Atlantic, no longer an effective block, and Britain is under NW-lies.

ECM - At first resembles GFS though the HP is less intense but closer to Britain fending off any New Year N-lies. Then a break from GFS as the HP retreats to Greenland 1035 mb Mon 5th with strong Arctic N-lies bringing a snowy-looking LP to N Britain (985mb Cape Wrath) which then swings away to Norway. S England eventually gets the cold air on Thu 8th but less promise of snow. HP at 1025mb maintains an Atlantic block.

GEM looks like ECM but with weaker pressure gradients and more Atlantic influence, often from the NW

AIFS - London, maxima up and down from a basic 5C, some cold rain from Tue 6th. Edinburgh, also around 5C but clearly colder Mon 29th and milder Sun 4th, also rain later on. (but as Darren points out, a blocking situation is unusual, so there will less data for AIFS to rely on)

GEFS - in the S, cold for Christmas Day, fairly mild to New Year's Eve, then cold or very cold for the first week of January, back to near  norm by 7th, small chance of small amounts of rain in the New Year but could be snow for the east coast early January. In the N, not specially cold for Christmas and not quite so much below norm in New Year, but looking much as in the S 

The models still having problems forecasting a blocked situation; plenty of scope for cherry-picking.

(Not soft hail 😊)

We have had one back in November, Twixmas models show that this is now the second. Enjoy!! 

Indeed, I never understood why Jersey sometimes crops up in UK temperature records - it has its own Met Office after all. You might as well include records from Bermuda or the Falkland Islands (neither of which is likely to get a white Christmas AFAIK)

another little correction west cold really digging in to Europe Snow very likely East coast

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1 

Having said that, the 06zGFS 90 run is a nice run for that time period. As ever the ensembles will be interesting to see how isolated it is.

At least there are several interesting options in the medium to longer term output.

Agree - well supported in the pert’s too, and UKMO charts mirror the timing of the retrogression of the HP - as the GFS. 

I'll take it ! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Crown dependency, with metoffice weather stations counts surely?

The falkland islands is actually more likely to get a white xmas than you'd expect. The southern ocean is so cold that snow can fall even during midsummer.

Which is a shame as they really do look nice 😂

Whether the GFS has gone off on one or not is TBC but as most of the models are at least suggesting a chance of a cold shot over the next couple of weeks, there's still plenty of scope for optimism. 

See the proper deep cold over France? We need this to move further west on further runs to join what France will get.  Notice date line had been pushed back a bit?  Need this to bring forward and this morning  00z ensembles only show -5C here so need to see -10C to -15C uppers to occur just to get a subzero max temps I am much after.  06z ensembles show again -5c but notice Nicosia ensembles are trending more colder so not a good sign if the deep cold take divertion to Greece and E Med instead of here.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1