Output looks almost boringly consistent this morning to me. HP building, some kind of initial chilly/cold push/waft from the east, maybe the chance of some well timed snow flurries before HP repositions initially leading to less mild 850s (may well still be chilly at the surface) before a decent chance of a renewed cold push. As Darren mentioned the other day it's those secondary cold pushes that seem to have mostly vanished from our colder spells, would make a pleasant change if it verified! The caution obviously being the HP tried to reposition, jet fires up over the top and all that promise disappears over a few runs.
ECM ens set is amusing this morning IMO - better agreement on colder air than preceding days efforts (not universal of course) but at least initially a pretty meh op in terms of colder uppers, even if still chilly to cold at the surface at times. Worth noting there's much better agreement in the ens for a brief hit of colder uppers 24th or 25th, so the op is a bit isolated in the suite FWIW.
In terms of the main models and focusing on Xmas day with an unashamedly IMBY bias we get the below. ECM op (see above) continues to be crucially a bit further south with everything, so no colder pool hitting the UK for the Xmas period but still widely cold, the other 3 contrive to time things perfectly to bring that little cold pool over MBY and generate some precip at the same time. The cynic in me says it's unlikely to work out as well but it's modelled so you never know!
Snow on UKMO, with midday temps around 0c for me.
GFS, snow, maxes around 3c
GEM, snow, midday temps around 0c
ECM, dry, midday temps around 3c
Originally Posted by: Hippydave