Probably one if the most blocked months on record that went on into March !

Remember it well. Dry as a bone but frigidly cold

 Since I moved to Dartmoor in 1989  I have had way less snow in the last 36 years than between 78 and 89 on the coast! 2010 and 2018 excepted!

-9c uppers, 1c max at midday, 30mph gusts, what's not to like? (IMBY).

GEM happily agrees, ECM does not (boo). GFS is chilly but no precip and not quite as cold uppers. 

Still fairly finely poised IMO - could be dry, chilly and drab, could be cold and drab, could get lucky and get some snow flurries. At least it won't be mild though😉

I doubt it, as it doesn’t show drizzle here.🤣

The outlook still looks anticyclonic over the Christmas period and beyond. It may not be too exciting weather wise (although there is still a possibility of wintry conditions) but given the amount of travel at the time of year it will be welcome by many people I would think.

I don’t post much these days such so many health issues but some of those members  reminder me of Dec 81 remembered with much love

I do believe they can fool a old man of looking at charts for 30 years but experience tells me we are in a excellent position

One forgets Dec 81 never had very cold 850,s in fact uppers struggled at -5 around m4 but what a month that was.

All to play for but optimism looks good for prolonged cold

I remember it well PL, here in NE Somerset we had 20 inches of snow and my log splitting hobby had to wait a while till it thawed.

Control has the system further north. Seems to be an emerging consensus for a pocket of cold uppers to cross somewhere close to the SE on Thurs/Fri

Welcome back, hope you are feeling better.  I was to young to remember 81.  In fact I dont even remember when we last had a cold Xmas day, Perhaps 1995 or 6 

Yes, normally at this time of year we are cherry picking deep FI charts hoping for some cold in January.  ECM ensembles are a bit disappointing with the core of the block too far south.  We have to hope for a northwards correction or all our snow potential is going south as usual

Charts below posted for posterity.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/42/17492/138_779UKbwm6.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/45/17644/138_780UKixe2.GIF 

And -10 or -11 at 850, with the classic kink in the isobars indicating a trough.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/24/3214/138_7UKaes3.GIF 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512190000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

The pressure anomaly charts are, in a word, fascinating. They show positive anomalies to the north throughout, gradually moving westwards through week 2 and 3, before moving eastwards again on weeks 4 and 5. Week 6 shows them moving westwards yet again, and my immediate thought is that it shows that ping-ponging effect between Scandinavia and Greenland that we've seen so little of in recent decades. There are negative anomalies to our south throughout, albeit both sets of anomalies weaken as time goes by - as you'd expect given the scatter at that range. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202512190000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

There will be plenty of ebbing and flowing over the next few weeks, I'm sure, and snow is by no means guaranteed - but I'm quietly confident we'll look back at this upcoming spell next spring and think how unusual it was given recent decades.

It will come as a real shock to the system, and (not to put the mockers on it) I've already warned my friends that Christmas Day will feel perishing down here... the recent 10C+ dewpoints and balmy SW'lies being replaced by dry, cold NE'lies in just a few days' time. As for snow, I'll continue to hope but not to expect.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/41/289/ukmohd_uk1_42_129_0ppc0.png 

The snow extends westwards, affect much of southernmost England, albeit it doesn't settle much other than in north Kent (and not here). Nonetheless, seeing snow coming down would feel very seasonal for those down here!

FWIW there's a large pool of -10 850s associated with it, and that, plus a trough in the flow, is what brings the snow.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/65/4424/ukmohd_uk1_16_129_0yhj2.png 

#

It's still 5 days away though and that's an eternity in modelling terms (except if SW'lies are shown, in which case it can be taken as 95% likely to come off). It's still very encouraging though and I'll be watching with bated breath over the next few days.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=306&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=0&time=138&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

(The blue bit of the bar yesterday reflected a run which went below -15, they're always very rare things on these charts!)

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/enswatch3.jpg 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-144.png?0 

To be honest, the prospect of days of easterly  anticyclonic coolish drizzle is uninspiring (although in the SE corner especially I can see there’s more appeal!). 

My attention is being grabbed by an increasing trend beyond next week but given the time frame I will wait and see if those random tasty charts (cf 00z GFS op run) become a recurring theme or simply vanish.

Any way you look at it, it seems that the latter part of December should feel more seasonal for the time of year, with or without snow.