Looks that way Brian. The general direction today is away from cold and more towards a dull mid latitude block.

Foggy, dark and chilly screams from that chart. No winter wonderland but still very seasonal. 

Yes as I feared and GFS much worse now on the 12z. Think I might be throwing in the towel already! Will come back in a few days and see how it's looking!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Please stay OT and discuss the model output. I'll be keeping a close eye on this thread in the next few days so don't test my Christmas spirit. 😏

I'd wait for the ensemble before doing that.

Certainly wait for the ensemble! None of the ens members for Brighton have a temp above 0C on the 28th, and although the op isn't too cold the control is down around -10C.  At the same time the snow row has jumped from 8 on the 0z to 12.

And still most members below zero into the New Year, despite what AIGFS says, with the control having another go at the deep freeze.

It's worth remembering though that every single cold spell has these wobbles and changes, and we've seen many times over the past 25 years that a clean easterly at T+168 becomes a mess by T+144 and derailed entirely at T+120. I also note the "AI" models, glorified pattern matchers that they are, have also been flipflopping around - just as they did in January. At least some things never change!

It remains the case that a pattern change is on the way and yes, it'll feel a lot more seasonal. If nothing else the October-ish warmth of the last couple of weeks will have given a false sense of what it should be like at this time of year, and returning to normal or below (as has been, and still is, signalled strongly by the ECM-46) will come as a heck of a shock!

The interesting part of this isn't whether or not it snows at Christmas (and I really don't expect it to, down here at least), but whether the pattern can sustain beyond the waning of that initial high. It used to be relatively common for a ping-pong between Scandinavia and Greenland to set up in terms of high positioning, but in the past couple of decades the northern jet soon puts paid to that and the high sinks back to its traditional Azores home or, in some cases, zips westwards at light speed - giving a couple of days of a west-based NAO, then a return to zonality.

At the moment it does look like the pattern will have longevity, with the ECM-46 keeping high anomalies north of us for a couple of weeks, and with three weeks of quite widespread colder than normal conditions over the UK. 

Will the ECM-46 stick with it tomorrow? We'll find out soon enough, and I'll post about it tomorrow morning (along with an updated ensemble watch - I'm going to carry on as long as there's a chance of a deep cold plunge affecting us!)

I think that’s probably the most succinct (totally free from mumbo jumbo and waffle) and accurate description of a key change in winter weather patterns in recent decades that I’ve read.

Sunshine amounts at a premium sadly so stereotypical easterly gloom for many although I spy a possible cloud break over Michaels house:-

The 12zs (op wise anyway) so far suggesting things maybe consolidating around the more bland HP dominated scenario positioned in a way which avoids overly cold uppers getting our way. Will be interesting to see where the ECM goes - could be a complete misread but the 0z ens suggested decent support for a repositioning HP to me, with a brief interlude of milder uppers, although the op disagreed. 

Nothing to get overly depressed about so far this evening for me - drying up (been very wet IMBY today) and cooling down to somewhere between cold and chilly although unless everyone puts their dehumidifiers out it looks like a cloudy/dank set up is favoured I think. A 'proper' cold spell remains a low chance option but still entirely possible. Maybe a few hints appearing in deep FI that HP will decline and allow more of an Atlantic flavour but not a strongly supported option and far enough out to ignore for the time being. 

Given the Atlantic conveyor over the last few weeks, that still represents a pretty big turnaround IMO!

But don't forget the differences suggested across the suite come only 6 hours after a more promising ENS mean- and the next six hours can swing back. 

We are over a week out from the post-Boxing Day scenario and in the mean, -5 850s are still forecast over much of England for about 3 days so I won't hang anything on this until I see what Sunday's sinking low does. If the mild air over C Europe causes it to intensify at all, or if anything else causes a change in shape or position of it, or the HP to the N, it might accelerate the colder pool over Russia towards us, or conversely scrap the cold spell before it really starts.

My thoughts too. Many memorable winter spells have begun that way. 

😉👍

Well compared with the 12z it is to T201, in terms of better orientation to the HP over Scandi. Not a major impact in terms of weather on the ground so far I'd say with a lack of properly cold uppers to tap in to but a more robust looking HP cell at least. 

Less cold, shorter lived. A familiar tale!

Once Pete Tong has entered the building there is no getting him out.  Very disappointing but at least we wont have a stupid mild Aussie style Christmas