The Weather Outlook

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Saint Snow
02 December 2025 17:23:39

If the 12z is to be believed, we are nailed on, not only for a record warm December, but a record warm CET year too. Some crazy temperatures being predicted for mid month, possibly 15-17c. Unbelievable. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The MO must be terrible if Moomin's been tempted out of his posting hibernation 😉


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

moomin75
02 December 2025 17:26:02

The MO must be terrible if Moomin's been tempted out of his posting hibernation 😉

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Haha. I thought someone may say that. But don't worry, I'm not going to be a pain in the arse this winter and will keep my powder dry.

I think we may get some luck this winter, perhaps not in the foreseeable future, but I genuinely don't believe this winter will be a total write off. Let's hope so anyway 🙏 


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Saint Snow
02 December 2025 17:29:36

Haha. I thought someone may say that. But don't worry, I'm not going to be a pain in the arse this winter and will keep my powder dry.

I think we may get some luck this winter, perhaps not in the foreseeable future, but I genuinely don't believe this winter will be a total write off. Let's hope so anyway 🙏 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Mate, you post what you want (it'll help generate some traffic in the MO thread!!!)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

David M Porter
02 December 2025 17:59:48

If the 12z is to be believed, we are nailed on, not only for a record warm December, but a record warm CET year too. Some crazy temperatures being predicted for mid month, possibly 15-17c. Unbelievable. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

That said, the GFS 00z op run this morning gave us a Sandi High in deep FI, a very different outcome to what the 12z shows in FI.

Just goes to show how erractic FI is in the GFS op runs. It can give us the sublime in one run, and the ridiculous in the next. To add to that, with a SSW having taken place late last week, at the moment I think we should be even more cautious than we would normally about taking any output for a week or more ahead as gospel.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Brian Gaze
02 December 2025 18:33:48
AIFS 12Z a straw to clutch?

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2025 18:56:42

If the 12z is to be believed, we are nailed on, not only for a record warm December, but a record warm CET year too. Some crazy temperatures being predicted for mid month, possibly 15-17c. Unbelievable. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I'd much rather crazy mild than average mild. If we can't have snow.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
warrenb
02 December 2025 19:20:01
We should know by now, if it goes cold NE US and E Canada then we are in the firing line. The problem is with GW the contrast in stronger than ever, so the jet fires up and we get a barrage of Low pressures. Cold escapes easier into North America dues to continental influences, and as the contrast has been ramped up, this is what we get.
Hungry Tiger
02 December 2025 19:44:43

If the 12z is to be believed, we are nailed on, not only for a record warm December, but a record warm CET year too. Some crazy temperatures being predicted for mid month, possibly 15-17c. Unbelievable. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Saves on my heating bills. I'm happy with that.  🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Taylor1740
02 December 2025 20:27:11

I know we're supposed to be stoic, seasoned and realistic, but TBH, I'm disappointed with the output which is rolling out at the moment. Obviously it could change quickly, but at the moment I can't help wondering if it's a case of "here we go again".

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes agreed, if there was going to be a cold spell in December you would think by now there would at least be some signs in the output. I'm thinking if there is still basically nothing of interest showing by the end of this week then it will be time to write off December for cold.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Brian Gaze
03 December 2025 08:09:10
I'm not sure this was what many people were expecting to see!

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
03 December 2025 08:10:08
I've just moved some posts to the breakout thread which is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1669418-Model-output-breakout-thread 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

David M Porter
03 December 2025 08:25:27

Yes agreed, if there was going to be a cold spell in December you would think by now there would at least be some signs in the output. I'm thinking if there is still basically nothing of interest showing by the end of this week then it will be time to write off December for cold.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

At the end of this week, there will still be just under four weeks of December to go. Therefore, IMHO writing off any chance of a change to cold at that time would be risky. Were we now half-way or over half-way through December with the model output as it is, I would be more likely to agree with you. Remember, last month we went from exceptional mildness in the first week or so of the month to a much colder spell for a time around mid-November which produced snow in a number of places. 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Russwirral
03 December 2025 08:57:33
Wouldnt be surprised if we saw Daffodils flowing before Xmas at this rate

Already seen cherry blossoms flowering.

Seems like HP to our south with pulses of warmish uppers coming our way is the way forward for December


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 December 2025 08:58:54
And the current charts show ...

FAX: procession of depressions and associated fronts across Britain within a general envelope of low pressure stretching from the far W Atlantic to W Scandinavia (Depressions e.g. 988mb W Isles today, 973mb W Ireland Sat 6th, 985mb W Wales Sun 7th, other depressions are available) But there is a Scandi HP 1038mb White Sea Sun 7th.

GFS Op: That HP doesn't last and the procession of LPs resumes but after 985mb NW Ireland Wed 10th start taking a more N-ly track near Iceland (940mb dartboard Fri 12th) while pressure rises from the south 1030mb by Wed 17th, fed by mild SW-lies. 

ECM: keeps LPs on amore southerly track for a few days after the 10th (970mb Ireland Fri 12th, 985mb Hebrides Sun 14th) before adopting a track near Iceland. But no sign of a dedicated rise in pressure by Wed 17th, just the usual pressure gradient in a W-ly flow.

AIFS: London maxima around 10C, cooler at first, milder early next week, then a long cloudy spell with virtually no difference in day-night temps to Wed 17th; small amounts of rain at any time. Edinburgh maxima like London but a couple of degrees cooler - and more day-night variation later on. Also rain at any time but heavier in first week.

GEFS: Op is the most optimistic about HP developing later; supported by runs P7, 9, 16 & 20 but not by others. Mean temps near norm at first, milder for most of next week, then mean back to norm but with a wide spread of ens members developing  (10C  above and below mean by by Fri 19th but op and control on the mild side) . Discrete episodes of rain at regular intervals in the S (esp SW) for a week, less focused an lighter in the N,  then perhaps a little drier though still being shown in several runs.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Heavy Weather 2013
03 December 2025 10:05:12
I realise I am clutching at straws here but does seem to be a small change being marked between 10-12 December. Over the last few runs that appears to be the period where we have been getting the odd ensemble member appearing. P30 GFS on the 0z show pressure increase to the NE.

I’m going to keep an eye on that. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

idj20
03 December 2025 11:22:35
Time for my daily 10th Dec watch with the Light Trail trip to mind and it's looking like a case of hoping it'll coincide with a break in a transient ridge between frontal systems.

Knowing sods law, it'll end up being all wet 'n' wild come the moment. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2025 12:55:19
Looks like we march on towards uncharted/record territory.  Yearly CET record looks almost certain. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
03 December 2025 13:28:45
Back from  -2c fog in Krakow to home +10c with heavy rain at Bristol and wind! Not seen that in a week.

Back to models - look how zonal it is and how warm Europe is in comparison to N, America temps in double figures - even in Poland! Incredible 12pm 8th Dec @ +132z:

Cities like, Minsk +10c, Moscow +3c, Helsinki +6c see below:

UserPostedImage


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Saint Snow
03 December 2025 13:48:32

Looks like we march on towards uncharted/record territory.  Yearly CET record looks almost certain. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

P18 on the GFS 6z looks interesting.

(is there any way of looking at the full runs of individual perturbations? or are they only visible as postage stamps?)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2025 14:02:42

P18 on the GFS 6z looks interesting.

(is there any way of looking at the full runs of individual perturbations? or are they only visible as postage stamps?)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Available on Wetterzentrale.de,  yes it's a beauty but very isolated. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=300&lid=P18&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2025 14:18:45

Back from  -2c fog in Krakow to home +10c with heavy rain at Bristol and wind! Not seen that in a week.

Back to models - look how zonal it is and how warm Europe is in comparison to N, America temps in double figures - even in Poland! Incredible 12pm 8th Dec @ +132z:

Cities like, Minsk +10c, Moscow +3c, Helsinki +6c see below:

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes all of Europe is exceptionally mild once again, while N America has its first significant snow storm.  My brother in law in Nova Scotia has deep snow.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
03 December 2025 15:25:07
I've been saying for weeks it could be the hottest winter ever. Not a forecast, just +GW guaranteed overhead now.

Charts are now backing this up


Berkshire
Brian Gaze
03 December 2025 15:46:55

P18 on the GFS 6z looks interesting.

(is there any way of looking at the full runs of individual perturbations? or are they only visible as postage stamps?)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

On TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=006&chartname=500mb&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=006&chartname=850tmp&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=006&chartname=2mtmpmax&chartregion=uk&p=1&charttag=2m%20max%20temp 

Select the Perturbation from the buttons below the charts


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Saint Snow
03 December 2025 16:02:06

Available on Wetterzentrale.de,  yes it's a beauty but very isolated. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=300&lid=P18&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Thanks for the links, chaps - appreciated


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

warrenb
03 December 2025 16:23:31
Well with the PV sitting over Baffin spitting lows at us I think we all know what the weather is going to be.

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